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Home » Reader question » Exchange or transfer Euros into Thai Baht now?
Exchange or transfer Euros into Thai Baht now?
Dear readers,
In July 2018 I arrived in Thailand again. Have brought cash for 2 years. Then the rate was 1 to 38, in August 1 to 39,2. Then exchanged for 5 months at Superrich. In November the rate was 1 at 35+
January 2019 my Thai Baht was finished, so exchanged again 1 in 36,6 unfortunately only 1x. Then exchanged again until May 2019 with a rate of between 1 in 35,2 and 1 in 35,9.
Now my question, are there any people who have any sense, what will happen to Euro – Thai baht? From November 2018 to date, I find the Thai Baht strong and the Euro weak.
Wait until something is clear about Brexit and wait until after a new government has been elected?
Regards,
Hans
If I had to know everything I would be a rich man now. When the money is gone, you have to exchange whatever the exchange rate is. In 2008 I got 53 Bt for one euro. Will things improve after Brexit? Ask in Frankfurt ECB.
No one can predict how the bath and euro will perform in the future. But the bath is now historically expensive compared to the euro. There are more chances that the bath will fall back in value than it will rise any further. So I would exchange as little as possible and hope for better times.
A few weeks ago I took my baths from the savings account and exchanged them back into euros in the hope that the euro will not fall further. If it were to rise back to roughly 38 , which is about the average for the past few years, I would earn 1000 baht per 3000 euros. Nicely taken 🙂
Dear Rob, there are no more chances that the baht will fall. You said it yourself. Nobody knows that.
Still, you seem to be very happy with your own expectations for the future. I hope you're lucky, but the penny can just as well fall the other way and then you're out of luck again.
I still remember the posts of those who, with reasons, put their euros safely in a euro account in Thailand in anticipation of a lower baht. And what happens? Correct!
Dear Rob
Where did you exchange the baths in euros
I wanted to do that too, but I couldn't get them exchanged
Greetings
Katja
No one can see into the future, but it could just be that after the elections a restless period will begin, which will make the baht less strong.
Exchange rates are influenced by confidence, expectations, but hardly by the influence of a government, because the daily currency flows are far too large for that. The ECB can support the €uro by raising an expectation – Dragi: We will support the €uro whatever it costs… (and we have a lot of money for that) – but that's about it.
Mid-eighties followed a lecture block of 80 evenings at the UvA. At the end we thanked the teacher, but also asked what he could tell us about the exchange rate of the US$ against the European currency. His answer: “for the exchange rate of the US$ in the future, you should not be at the Faculty of Economics, but at that of Psychology”.
At that time the US$ became stronger and stronger. The Bundesbank wanted to keep the exchange rate at 1 $ = 3 DM and had a “war chest” of DM 3 billion for that purpose. Slurp.. and that amount was gone. There was $1000 trillion a day going around at the time. That is now about 3 times that.
Did you really think that any government in this free field of forces could really do something about it? If the pension fund or insurance money managers decide that the return in THB (or any currency for that matter) is slightly higher than what they are generating now, they have to shift, because... You and I like to have a good pension, don't you? coming from 20-25% investment and the rest what they can make as return from investments they have made with it.
Ask the Russians about those times when their rubles collapsed.
I live in Thailand.
The last time I exchanged Euros for Thai Bath was in the period when the Euro was still worth 44 Bath. Soon after that it went further downhill. In order to still have money, I opened a euro account at my Thai bank and deposited Euros into it and then I transfer an amount per month in Euros from my Rabo account to this Bangkok bank euro account. So far I have been able to manage without using this euro account, but if it takes another year I will also be screwed and I will have to exchange Euros for Bath for a low exchange rate.
But the question why the Bath is so strong, I can't really find an answer to that, yes some posturing about the link to the Dollar, but nothing about the real causes. Can someone give a solid answer to that?
It is possible that the Thai Baht is not strong, but the Euro is weak.
Don't forget, the ECB has printed a huge pile of monopoly money for Greece and beyond.
Greece's debts have been converted into EU debts, which will probably never be paid off.
And now Italy is about to get into trouble, so more monopoly money.
That's right, Draghi decided again this week that banks in the Eurozone can borrow money for free (so as not to let the Italian banks collapse). The printing press for the Euros is turned on again.
Companies can also borrow at extremely low interest rates. As soon as interest rates rise sharply, we will have the next crisis, because companies will be over their heads in debt and they will not be able to pay that interest burden. It's a dangerous game that Draghi is playing.
You can watch this for what it's worth https://walletinvestor.com/forex-forecast/eur-thb-prediction.
1 the euro was printed en masse to save Greece.
2 Brexit brings uncertainty around the euro.
3 The US economy is doing very well.
4 China is growing and will continue to grow spectacularly.
Those are my main reasons. Get well soon, but not tomorrow.
The Baht is just getting stronger so that the Thai economy can grow and boom. So that there is political stability, good economic prospects and social peace. All currencies in SE Asia are strengthening. If you compare that to the doom and gloom of Western countries, you will soon understand why investors are coming this way.
The future lies in these parts and the past in the free west. We have had our time and must now gradually learn to live that our glory times are over (just listened to Draghi ECB, then you will have understood)
Strong economies have strong currencies, that's always been the case. The value of a coin is the barometer of a country's economic condition. I have long predicted that 1 Euro will drop to 30 Baht.
Here they have no interest in climate or environment … ..here everything revolves around profit. The golden sixties have just started here.
And don't be under any illusions. The election results are already known. The army keeps everything neatly under control. March 26 Business as usual.
You came to live in Thailand and so you get a strong Thai baht. As well as heat, dust, pollution, and the predicted drought for the coming months. There is nothing that can be done/repaired: if you want to work relaxed in Thailand, take things as they happen, and act as you see fit. In Thailand we need more than EUR 1000 to pay our monthly groceries and expenses without any headaches; in the Netherlands we were able to do that for less than EUR 800. Thailand is more expensive, does not get cheaper, and you cannot accept more than that.
So every month I transfer EUR 1000 via Transferwise to my wife's SCB bank account, and she sees how much baht it brings in. One time a little more than the other month. That's what we'll do with that. That's our deal. Still, she has baht left over every month, puts it aside, and this way we occasionally go away for a weekend. By transferring monthly, you eventually get a kind of mid-market rate. And indeed, it tends more and more downwards. So be it.
That is why I keep THB 800K for the Immigration.
That's nice Ruud!
Monthly charges and groceries Euro1000!
My health insurance. is Euro 410 per month
House rent is Euro 550 per month
Looking at coffee grounds remains difficult, but if you look at the past I would not expect the value of the baht to fall, but given the short-term risk of political chaos, I would not take the risk of a drop in the baht, but if elections were to proceed in an orderly manner I would go fifty-fifty with which you can always maintain the cheerfulness of half being better or worse than the other exchanged half, more importantly: you create peace that it does not matter whether the price value of baht / euro rises or falls
Hans says.
Have decided, if the Th.b is at 35 high for the month of June to change at Superrich.
Have no sense, my feeling is gone and my crystal ball is blurred.
Hans
Politicians, in the context of a neoliberal policy, have given the banks free rein. This caused the financial crisis of 2008 and brought countries such as Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Italy, ... into a serious crisis. It is not “the Greeks” etc who are going to run with the European money, but the banks. In Iceland they approached it very differently…
everyone talks about the fall of the euro, but people forget that the dollar is also losing ground.
Then I hear someone proclaim that Thailand is doing well economically, which is completely laughable. The two pillars of the economy, tourism and rice exports, are declining, there is no money for much-needed investments (including expansion of the airports, etc.) so there is There is no economic reason why the BHT is so strong. I'm curious what will happen to the BHt after the elections.
Hans says.
Katja I live in Changmai, have cash Euros.
Switching between buying and selling is a win-win situation.
Hans