Price EUR/THB at important support level
Predicting prices is a tricky business. Some have a day job, with varying results, you can predict that.
The so-called Technical Analysis is then usually used, also called line drawing by skeptics, and with the aid of Fibonacci numbers, resistance and support levels, peaks and troughs, spikes and I don't know what, the future course of the chart would just follow. arising from the past.
Too good to be true of course. I hope to make it clear to you that it cannot be right by definition with the following simple example.
The Dutch stock index, the AEX, is structurally different from the German DAX. The difference is that in the AEX the distributed dividends are not reinvested, while in the DAX they are. So even if the prices were in principle exactly the same, the graphs will look different over time and a certain 'important' (Fibonoacci) value will be reached at a different time in the AEX than in the DAX, or not at all. . Well, what are you supposed to do then?
There is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy going on. If the AEX has not been below, for example, 427 points for a long time, and that does happen or threatens to happen, then there will undoubtedly be speculation on a significant further fall, if only because many TA programs will then generate 'trade advice', or worse , will automatically offer your documents.
What I now have to say about the THB/EUR is mainly a summary review of the past, based on some graphs.
The link takes you to the 10-year chart, you can click on the other periods yourself: goo.gl/L1GZnT
If we start with the 10-year chart, we see that the trend is downward. Whether we draw a line through the middle, over the tops or along the troughs, we can't get around that and the longer a trend lasts, the less likely it is that that trend will be broken in the short term, but the moment that trend is broken – if that is still going to happen – is getting closer and closer. The only thing we can say with certainty is that the exchange rate for a EURO earner has not made a positive contribution to purchasing power in Thailand over the last 10 years, unfortunately.
>It is striking that there has only been one short period when the price was worse than now, at the beginning of 2015 with a minimum of 34.43. The 5-year chart also shows a downward trend, albeit slightly less pronounced. On a 2-year chart, we see it bounce back from the dip of 2015, before hitting a new bottom on May 23, 36.83.
We have remained above that for a long time since then, and we can therefore assume that this is seen as an important level of support.
For the sake of convenience, here is this, in my opinion, the most important graph: goo.gl/photos/
The past few weeks have been tense, the price came fearfully close to 36.83, namely 36.90 on February 15, and then bounced back like a small miracle to a level around 37.35. The support line had been tested and held, in TA parlance.
Until Monday it all seemed to end with a fizzle for the time being, but on Tuesday the draft was ugly again and we tapped an intraday minimum of 36.89.
Technical analysts will view a downward break of support at 36.83 as a real possibility of a further fall back to early 2015 levels (34.43) rather than indications of a speedy recovery.
Today, Wednesday, February 22, what was feared happened, the price has broken through the support of 36.83, and so far we have an intraday minimum of 36.76. Experts can now argue whether this is a breakthrough or a second test of the soil.
In any case, it is the lowest price in almost two years and nobody is happy about that.
Perhaps it would be nice if 'experts', whether or not substantiated with (wild) theories, set the course for April 1st. trying to predict.
01-04-2017 = 37.01
French Amsterdam,
Nice article and explained. I know the methods of TA and also fibonoacci. Charts yes in normal financial world with reliable governments you could do it. But everything goes up and down, emotion. Stock markets are starting to lose some of their vibrancy, confidence and economic recovery are slowly starting to come.
But the currency fluctuations are really what central banks have in their grip and central banks are simply controlled through the back door by political movements. See what is happening in Europe, inflation is cranking up but Draghi is sticking to quantitative increase, or as you can also call it, helping the poorer euro countries not to raise their interest rates too much so that government debt remains affordable.
America is gaining steam, inflation is higher than the target of 2%, the fed is planning to raise interest rates, but is somewhat held back by the already more expensive dollar and will become even more expensive if interest rates are raised, so that the price of export products will also rise. If interest rates are raised in the short term and the dollar becomes more expensive, this will also affect the euro and thai bath. You see that with every interest rate increase, money is pulled from the market elsewhere in the direction of America, so that will not do the stock markets any good, nor will it do currency relations any good.
My expectation is that if interest rates rise by 2x 0.25% this year, the Thai bath will reach a record low of 34.43. Cannot give an exact rate before April 1, but will be lower if rates are raised in March than now. My general expectation is that in 2 years time we will see an exchange rate of 32 to 33 baht on the euro, provided that the Thai government or Thai central bank does not intervene.
I hope I'm completely wrong, but I covered myself for that.
Can it have aubvolatility instead of violity?
Conversely, at rate 32, the euro is at a record low, not the Bath.
I think it will be difficult to tap the 40 baht, rather that the eu goes to parity with us dollar or rather 1 euro a dollar. so soon towards 35 baht for a euro and hopefully not lower…
Unfortunately, even experts cannot predict a course. No one can. It keeps guessing and then being right or wrong.
I think that the THB should only devalue by about 20 percent,
Good for tourism and Thai exports, which have been in decline for several years.
Thailand is pricing itself out of the market due to the expensive currency, also compared to neighboring countries. Of course, the wish is father to the thought here.
Prayut do something about it then we have more to spend and that is good for domestic consumption And the farang can smile again it is good for all parties and for us in particular.
"THB should only devalue 20%". It is the Euro that is now falling to the starting point of 2002 and the Dutch do not like that, so devalue with that baht. THB is now down almost 20% in a few years against the US Dollar which is still the main currency so the ratios are just right and of course they won't.
My prediction for April is that the Euro will fall even further to 35 baht. In April a lot of tourists are expected for the Songkran festival and usually during these high season periods you get less Baht for the Euro.
If this trend continues, many expats will consider leaving Thailand as was the case in 2015. Let's hope that this will not happen and that the Euro will bounce back soon.
It is good for Europe that the € is worth less because we can then export more and there is now even a surplus on the national balance in the Netherlands. The latest news on Google was that Le Pen would get fewer seats. Since you have to get more than 50% of the vote in France to become President, I'm not too afraid of that. Unfortunately, there is uncertainty about the outcome of the various votes in the EU, but for NL it is currently only favorable unless you live in a non € country. In my opinion, the exchange rate will also depend on how much the US is going to borrow and, among other things, the stability in Thailand and the Chinese Sea.
With the problems in Europe, the Euro will fall even further. People will also be even more reluctant to buy some things, sales of condos will also fall further. You have to count that if you buy a condo now you have to pay thousands of Thai baths extra than the requested price. Yes life is also getting more expensive here, but in Europe it is even more expensive,
I get paid in Thai Baht. For me, the fall of the Euro is a blessing.
I can't help but give a short update. The price has now bounced back to 37.0 and a very nice so-called inverted head-shoulder formation is forming on the weekly chart. Whether the pattern will be fully completed remains to be seen, of course, but the faithful will certainly draw hope from it, although a weekly chart is a bit short to estimate the 'validity of the signal' very high.
The weekly chart now:
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https://goo.gl/photos/d2iYNuNT9sD24Ytj6
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For the interpretation of the inverted head-shoulder pattern:
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https://goo.gl/OPSRGe
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And then I will put another Baht in the bag myself before April 1: 36.60
Thanks for the explanation; I've been walking around the past few days wondering why the price isn't getting better. (Better for me I mean)
In the newspaper you read more and more positive reports, for example about France, where the economy is picking up.
I don't see that positivity reflected in the price.
I still have 40 baht/euro as a reference, and check this page to see how much extra something costs: [url]http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=40&From=THB&To=EUR[ /url]
This rate probably has to do with the unlimited printing of Euros.
As a result, interest rates go down and it becomes less interesting to put your money in a Euro savings account.
Moreover, the bill of all those bad debts that have been bought up must also be paid at some point.
So the prospects for the Euro are not that great.
There is no point and it makes no difference to debate, to deliberate or to speculate. Frans is right as always when he says that yesterday the price was 36,86 and today it ticked back to 37. In any case, this kind of course was also the case in the middle of last year.
Those who have been dealing with Thailand a little longer know that we had long months in 2014 when the euro shook more than 42 baht. Many have transferred many euros to Thailand.
Now that the euro is low, it gives many a kick in the opposite direction to be busy with the euro. Wait until the baht is much lower, and then buy very cheap euros. Save those euros somewhere until you get another piece at 40 baht for it. Because that's how it goes: lean and fat years! Always has been.
I don't follow the EUR/Bath closely, but I have been following the EUR/USD for years. And yes, with TA. The situation is clear: the euro is in a strong downward trend against the dollar, in recent months there has been a pause sideways between 1,05 and 1,10. It is normal for the trend to resume after a pause. Last two weeks close to 1,05 again, already been below that twice. Sooner or later the 1,05 will really die. Then it quickly goes to 1,00 and after that… we'll see. Initial price was once 0,82 so that's possible. The main cause is higher interest rates on the dollar. And of course there is not really much confidence in the EU (Greece is not resolved, elections...). I don't follow EUR/Bath that much, but I don't think it will do the exchange rate much good.
I'm not an expert on this subject, but I've been looking at my Bitcoin account for the past few days now. I started late and hardly have anything on it, but the 5000 Baht that were on it in bitcoin are now worth 5695 Baht in four days. That is an increase of more than 11% in a short time. It will then fall again soon, but as I stated elsewhere, the trend is exactly the opposite of the Euro.
I will put my savings on it… leaving your money in a Dutch bank is a financial suicide.
It is expected that it will be worth more than 3 Euro in 2000 years. With the rapid decline of the Euro, probably even more so.
Did you know that you can buy a credit card at some bitcoin wallets? With this you can withdraw money from an ATM worldwide or also pay regular bills in the local currency, without paying a significant conversion rate. However, the now 200 Baht at an ATM in Thailand.
I don't want to be the expert here and everyone should know for themselves. In any case, I will put all the Euros that I have to hold on to a bitcoin wallet in the coming years.
https://nl.investing.com/currencies/eur-thb
click on “max” below the graph
stand with the vertical line on that top of 01-01-1991, then you will see that horizontal line also touching those 2 bottoms. So there is strong support at 34,80. In other words: that will be the price target for the time being.
Tribute to our economists among us and I hope they are right or wrong with their forecast but one thing is certain what I have learned in my life is what I get in my hand when I change my euro because that is what it is all about and now read i so much different rates than what i receive, transferred last night internet banking received today in my bank account bath 1 so i don't know where someone gets 36.34 or more !! so you can easily hang all forecasts in the tree what the people who really have sense don't know either and with rummers or rumors only the rich get richer just look at that billionaire in America 37 billion only the rumor that unilever will be taken over. 3 so let's just wait and hope for a rise in the euro or a fall in the dollar.
Have a nice weekend to you all.
Tonymarony,
Did that American give you 1 billion, partly in view of the fact that you had just received money in the bank via the internet. That American (Buffet) had earned 1 billion in one fell swoop, but was not a rumor.
But be happy with what you have and get, if you have too much money and you want to put it away safely, that also costs money. They must already invest 1% on short-term government bonds from Germany to keep their capital safe. You don't have to do that, so add another 1% to the exchange rate, now you can also be a bit happier. Cheers.