The populist Thai election slogans scrutinized (part 2)
Elections for the Thai parliament are coming up. May 14 is the big day on which the current opposition thinks it can take over from Prayut. But before that, there are the populist election promises. Here part 2 and my comments.
The so-called State Welfare Card or one-off 10.000 Baht digital money
The State Welfare Card (SWC) is a card that the poor in Thailand (defined as Thai, over the age of 18, earn less than 100.000 Baht per year; financial assets less than 100.000 Baht; no more than 100 m² house; no more than 10 rai for agriculture or 1 rai for other uses) who buy it from special shops for 300 Baht per month. The system had all kinds of problems: determining whether someone meets the conditions was complicated and not free of errors (ie corruption) and an insufficient number of shops in the country. That does not prevent politicians from advocating for the monthly amount to be increased to 700 Baht after the elections.
In addition to this measure (say 8.400 Baht per year structurally for about 15 million poor people), another party wants to give every Thai citizen over 18 10.000 Baht once on New Year 2024. But: it is digital and not cash, it must be paid within 6 months. spent within a radius of 4 kilometers from one's own home. Here, too, I foresee a large number of problems with the implementation and believe that the consequences of the plan have not been properly thought through:
- Millions of Thais do not live in a house/apartment where they are registered. On paper they still live in their native village, but live and work in the big city;
- What if there are hardly any shops within a radius of 4 kilometers from your home? I live in a village where only mom and dad have shops in a radius of about 10 kilometers. Should all those 10.000 Baht be spent on beer, ice cubes, toilet paper and detergent? And then about 1700 Baht per month? Every day becomes a party when it comes to alcohol.
What annoys me most is that both measures implicitly assume that the Thai citizen is not able to spend that money in the way he or she wants. The money cannot be spent on education of the children, paying off debts, saving. A form of patronage: we give you money, but we also determine how you can and may spend that money. If one wanted to structurally help the population and the economy, one would do better to start thinking about a basic income; and think about how this could be financed. This could therefore replace the increase in a pension for the growing number of Thai elderly people, which some parties are arguing for.
Suspension of payment obligations for debts
Another populist idea is to suspend the payment obligations that many Thai people have because they have debts for a certain period of time. Now those debts can be caused by very different things: buying a house, buying a car, student loans, gambling, borrowing money for anything and everything. And the reason that one cannot meet their payment obligations can also be very different: from addiction to reckless and irresponsible purchases to losing your job or income (e.g. in Covid times).
I believe that in the event of a suspension of payment obligations you should not sweep all types of debts and all reasons into one big pile and declare a generic measure for this. The government could set up a fund where people can borrow interest-free for certain debts and for a maximum amount. That fund then pays off the debts and ensures that people repay their debts monthly to the fund, in this case the government. The condition is also that no new debts are incurred. When all that happens, the last 10 or 20% of the debt will be forgiven.
Free school lunches, free education, free healthcare
Everything that is free appeals to people; not only the Thais but certainly also the Dutch. We have a website GRATIZ.nl for a reason. However, two questions arise:
- Is everything that is free really of a decent quality? There are plenty of stories about the quality of Thai education and making it free is not going to change that. On the contrary: it could give a new swing to private schools and universities. Given the aging of the population, much less money will be needed in the coming decades for education and much more for health care.
- How does the government fund all these free gifts? Taxes, changes in political priorities (less army, sale of army places in the middle of the city).
To prevent making services free by the government means a growth of the private sector (which thus gets the most out of it), I would argue that making things free only if the government nationalizes the entire sector. This certainly applies to education and healthcare. I don't see that happening anytime soon in Thailand. Making government services free can only lead to impoverishment and quality reduction and is therefore counterproductive.
That has been my objection to the blue flag card or welfare card from day 1: unnecessarily complicated for the applicant, affiliated shops, patronizing (the government decides where the money can be spent). Just give money to groups that would otherwise go under, or for universal basic income. Saves a lot of bureaucracy and undoubtedly also corruption.
But before you know it, your promise of X baht payout will be seen as “vote buying”, and then the fine Electoral Council or other body can lift your leg. It is probably easier to get away with little workable plans, then you scrap one part and companies can fish the berries out of the other part. After all, money should flow upwards, right?
Chris, about paying that 10k baht there are three ages in the media. All ages, above 16 and above 18. Digital money? Will every Thai be able to handle that?
In the time of senior Shinawatra I also got them at the door; gentlemen in shiny suits and ladies in 'long' and all with a Prodent smile. If my wife voted for them, she would get… yes, a bottle of cooking oil! Other parties gave a card with telephone credit. Fortunately, my lady was not at home and I gave the bottle of cooking oil of the cheapest quality to the neighbors…
In fact, all parties, including the conservative ones, promise citizens more money. Ena slje can count, actually all more than 10.000 Baht.
A Pension of 700 Baht per month from the age of 60. With a life expectancy of 76 years, that is 16 * 12 * 700 Baht = 134.000 Baht
A basic salary of 25.000 Baht for graduate academics (instead of 15.000) is still: 35 years * 12 * 10.000 = 1,2 Million.
Free education: 12 years * 100.000 Baht = 1,2 million per child.
There will be no parties left if this is all called vote buying.
Recently had a discussion with a few Thais. Hope for more democracy. My question: what does democracy mean to you? Make more money, get rich. It never gets…. No idea what democracy really means.
Populism or not, most people around me vote Shinawatra, that was also the first and only one who did something for them.
A government that doesn't speak up when their friends in Myanmar are slaughtering their own people like 10 days ago is not worth leading a population.
They even made sure it didn't get into the media because bombing children just before the elections is of course not a good time.