Pita Limjaroenra (Editorial Credit: SPhotograph / Shutterstock.com)
In today's NRC there is an article by Saskia Konniger about the political situation in Thailand: Is the military regime in Thailand relinquishing power? Konniger describes the current situation based on 4 questions.
Two months after the elections in Thailand, there is still no new government, despite a large majority for pro-democracy parties. Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Move Forward Party, has formed a coalition of eight parties, which together have a majority in the House of Representatives. Despite this, General Prayut Chan-ocha, who seized power in a coup in 2014, continues to lead a caretaker government.
A government in Thailand can only be formed by a Prime Minister who is appointed by a majority of all representatives from both the House of Commons and the Senate. The choice for this will take place on July 13. The possibility of a military coup is still present, as the military can thwart democratic reforms through legal avenues.
If Limjaroenrat is not elected prime minister or is otherwise thwarted by the army, there is a good chance that many Thai people will take to the streets again in protest.
Read the article here: https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/07/06/staat-het-militaire-regime-in-thailand-de-macht-wel-af-a4169119
I'm going to read the article but this posting is already teeming with errors and misinterpretations.
1. the military regime is not in power, neither de jure nor de facto. The current (outgoing) government can be described as conservative. And there are hundreds of such governments in this world.
2. The Prime Minister will be elected on July 13, after the elections on March 14, and a final election result in June. All in all an acceptable time frame. “No new government yet” is therefore not appropriate. The Netherlands and Belgium take longer to form a government.
3. “Nevertheless, Prayut remains….” The Prayut government came to town after the 2019 ELECTIONS, not after the 2014 coup.
4. The chance of a military coup is the well-known clincher but absolutely unrealistic, given the election results. (and a government that hasn't done anything yet)
5. The military, part of which also voted for Pita, will not thwart Pita, the conservatives (and big business) probably will.
6. The MFP has seen that taking to the streets is not the solution to the problems. There will probably be other actions and no demonstrations.
And your interpretations are correct?
I think mine are more accurate than the NRC journalist's.
For the sake of convenience you forget to say that all means are allowed and used to ban parties or to exclude opponents from the elections.
Dear Chris, I only agree with you on point 2. The Thai Constitution allows 60 days for the final appointments of the MPs (member of parliament) and then a speaker of the “lower house” must be appointed. All neatly completed. A first task of the newly appointed chairman is to determine a date on which the PM (prime minister) will be elected. That date became July 13th.
Ad 1- The current government is an absolute consequence of the May 2014 coup. Read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Thai_general_election and use the links provided in the text. The list of 'references' may convince you that the article is accurate.
Re 3- If your first point is not correct, then this point is not correct either. Take a critical look at how the run-up to / course of the 2019 elections have been.
Ad 4- For now it looks like Pita will make it: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/2607758/mfp-predicts-pm-nod-for-pita
Ad 5- 'Forbes Thailand' recently released a list of the 50 richest Thais of the year. https://www.forbesthailand.com/forbes-lists/thailand-richest
The total wealth of all 50 individuals listed has increased by nearly 15% to $173 billion. Even with such an amount 'no country can be sailed'. With a little courage, those 50 guppies can add a few percent next year.
https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/economy/40029140
Ad 6- We'll see what's going on July 13th. 2 more dates have been set. Judging by the Thai weather, you cannot say that it can freeze or thaw, but it is clear that tempers are getting heated.
ad 1.Wikipedia as source. Do not make me laugh. In good discussions, Wikipedia is a banned source, also in the academic world. The current government may be a result of the coup, but that government was created through ELECTIONS, through the voice of the people.
The business community in Thailand, especially the more oligopolistic ones, are in league with the conservative rulers, but are also willing to switch if it suits them better commercially. There is very little integrity. As I mentioned, Number 10 is not in favor of continuing a Conservative government, and the business bosses know that all too well.
Moderator: too many typos
Wikipedia as a source, and certainly the English-language version presented by me, is fine. We are not engaged in academic deliberation. And indeed, elections were also held in 2019. And of course opportunism is a driving force. Eggs will be chosen for their money.