2018: Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha (L) and President of Myanmar Win Myint (C) walk past honor guard upon his arrival at the Thai Government on an official visit. (SPhotograph/Shutterstock.com)
Many international observers are increasingly questioning what they describe as 'Thailand's disappearing regional leadership'. During the Cold War and in its aftermath, Thailand played a central role in regional diplomacy, but in recent years it has declined significantly.
This is also recognized in Thailand itself and was recently reaffirmed when Thai social media received a remarkable amount of praise for Indonesian president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo when he went on a trip to Moscow and Kiev at the end of last month. attempt to mediate the ongoing war. In the eyes of many Thais, Jokowi showed determination and a will to play a proactive and constructive role in foreign affairs. In other words, Indonesia has made commendable efforts to live up to its widely recognized role as the natural leader of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
The Indonesian attitude, according to many, is in stark contrast to Thailand's presence in the international arena. While Thailand eagerly participated in the special US-ASEAN summit and made international headlines by finally normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia after 30 years of often escalating tensions, the Thai government has remained conspicuously in the background. conflicts such as in Ukraine and Myanmar.
Unlike today, Thailand's foreign engagements during the Cold War and its immediate aftermath were bold and resolute. By mediating between its neighbors and drafting the Bangkok Declaration, Thailand was, among other things, a catalyst for the formation of ASEAN in the late 1979s. Many of ASEAN's major decisions, such as the campaign to "intervene" in Cambodia after the XNUMX invasion of Vietnam and the establishment of the ASEAN Free Trade Zone in the early XNUMXs, were also inspired and driven by Thailand.
In addition, as one of the few countries in the region capable of doing so, Thailand took a leading role in communications with the major powers. Given Thailand's strategic location and its goal of pushing back communism, the kingdom became the United States' main logistical and operational base in Southeast Asia. It should not be forgotten in this context that Thai forces – on land, in the air and at sea – were actually deployed to support US missions in Korea and Vietnam. However, following the US withdrawal from Indochina in the mid-XNUMXs, Thailand was one of the first ASEAN countries to pursue diplomatic normalization, eager to stabilize the region, even going so far as to establish a de facto security alliance with China to counter the growing influence of Vietnam – and thus the Soviet Union – in the region…
In the past two decades, however, there has been a clear turnaround in pro-active foreign policy. Slowly but surely, Thailand faded more and more into the background within the international diplomatic and political circus. This, of course, was largely attributable to what I will euphemistically describe as the political instability in the Land of Smiles. The Thai had other cats to flogging in recent years and as a result, the leading role that Thailand had played within the region gradually faded.
And of course there is also the undeniable fact that, unlike forty or fifty years ago, Thailand is no longer really confronted with external existential threats. In the past, communist expansion in neighboring countries and in the corners of the nation has posed a potential threat to Thailand's state ideology, which is based on the pillar of nation, religion and king. The Thai government officials from that period, almost all of whom had a military background, were rabid communist eaters and – partly because of the lucrative support from Washington – openly pro-US. But today's Thailand does not see the 'revisionist axis', China and Russia, as the enemy today. Also, the unstable and civil war-torn neighboring country of Myanmar does not pose a serious military threat to Thailand as Vietnam did in the Cold War era. The Thai military actually enjoys friendly relations with its Myanmar counterpart, preferring to handle the ongoing Myanmar conflict quietly.
In the face of growing uncertainties in international relations, alliance-based security guarantees are no longer reassuring. For a medium-sized country with no real external enemy like Thailand, maintaining neutrality and an unobtrusive foreign policy may be the best way to survive.
That said, of course, we cannot ignore the fact that there are limits to how far Thailand can feign nonchalance. A recent – and fortunately not out of hand – incident with Myanmar suggests that Thailand's foreign policy has become very passive, not to say lax, and that Thailand has seemingly lost the will to somehow regain its regional leadership. to win. On June 30, a Myanmar MiG-29 fighter jet flying a strike mission against ethnic rebels in Kayin State breached Thailand's airspace. The aircraft reportedly flew unhindered over Thai territory for more than fifteen minutes. This caused panic in the border villages and even led to hasty evacuations here and there. It was only after Thai F-16 fighters on air patrol intervened and tried to intercept the Mig-29 that the aircraft returned to Myanmar.
It was striking how the Thai authorities minimized this potentially dangerous incident afterwards. Especially the statement by General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is not only Prime Minister but also Minister of Defense, that the incident was 'no big deal' raises eyebrows here and there…. To dismiss the violation of territorial integrity as unimportant is not exactly the most logical from a strategic and policy point of view. Even if one wants to show restraint… Normally all alarm bells should have gone off, but there was only a weak reaction and hardly any conviction. It was therefore questioned by a number of observers and journalists – both in Thailand itself and abroad – whether Thailand, if it cannot even defend itself, would still be prepared to take action if similar incidents occurred in other countries. ASEAN members? Probably not. The fact that Thailand is still waiting for an official written apology from Myanmar makes the Thai government's passive response even stranger.
Furthermore, by failing to act quickly and allow Myanmar to conduct military operations seemingly unimpeded from Thai airspace, the Thai government has inadvertently renounced its neutrality and is instead appearing to have sided with the regime in Myanmar, where the armed forces have been embroiled in a bloody civil war against democratic opposition and ethnic insurgents since last year's coup.
Perhaps it is also wise not to get involved in a conflict.
It would have been difficult to shoot this MIG directly out of the air, we also do not do this with the Russian aircraft that fly into the airspace for testing.
There is indeed a civil war in the area, but of course there had been fighting for years between all kinds of population groups there and not just between the Myanmar army and the population groups. But also by the population groups themselves.
Of course, one military regime cannot suddenly start blaming the other military regime…