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Home » News from Thailand » Prediction: Value of Thai Baht will fall next year
Prediction: Value of Thai Baht will fall next year
The Thai Baht has been Asia's best-performing currency for six years, but that's not good for many. Thailand is an exporting country, so a strong baht will damage the economy. Experts say a reversal is imminent. The value of the baht against the dollar is expected to fall next year, according to a Bloomberg study.
The value of the Baht is falling, thanks to the slowdown in economic growth and measures taken by the Thai Central Bank. This year, the Baht has appreciated 8%, making it Asia's best-performing currency. Many investors chose the Baht because of the trade war between the US and China.
But that seems over now. The baht rose just 0,1% in December, suddenly making it the region's worst-performing currency. Should trade relations between the US and China improve further, the depreciation of the Baht is expected to continue.
Last week, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) lowered its economic growth forecast for 2019 to 2,8% and its outlook for next year from 3,3% to 2,8%. These disappointing figures will contribute to further depreciation of the Baht.
Source: Bangkok Post
This is a prediction, so wait and see what happens. But: 1% is not very impressive, and if at the same time the Euro falls, which can certainly happen, the Baht can rise against the Euro.
Next year around this time then we will see what has become of the expectations.
My feelers say a mid-market exchange rate in December 2020 of 32.40 baht for a USD and 36.00 baht for a Euro.
The condition is that Thailand changes various laws so that the money can leave the country more easily. If they also (temporarily) lower the import duties on more luxurious goods to a maximum of 15%, that might give the economy some breathing space.
They can of course also buy some more war toys and renew the Thai Airways fleet, but the main thing to lower the value is to spend as much as possible outside Thailand.
@Johnny BG,”
Thailand needs to change various laws to make it easier for the money to leave the country.”
I am very curious about the restrictions that are there cq. that are contained in the laws you refer to.
Relaxing the Foreign Exchange Control Act to allow investors to make riskier investments abroad.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1806469/baht-concerns-abound
Today, the 24th of December '19 USD-Thai Baht is 30 and then some.
Last week, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) lowered its economic growth expectations for 2019 from 2,5% to 2,8% ?? Numbers to reverse or is the decline an increase? What it becomes with the baht is speculaas, only once you have eaten it do you know the taste. Nothing is as unpredictable as currency rates. Especially for smaller currencies. I'm coming to Thailand in February and going to see if the grass is greener in Vietnam in April 🙂
It has become really sad with the Thai bath, but life is still a bit cheaper than in Europe. The time when we will get 50 Bath for 1 euro is definitely over.
I think it depends on your personal situation, but with a family (child going to school) and normal health insurance, life in (southern) Europe is a lot cheaper than in Thailand, and the food quality is incomparably better.
When I was with the mohdu last week I was allowed to ask a bonus question…
So after some consideration I asked the price development of the baht for 2020 and the outcome is that he said that the baht will rise at least 10% compared to the dollar and euro.
Only to remain at that level for years to come with growing poverty among the ordinary Thai.
Because of the strong baht, Mazda will also transfer part of its production to Japan. A government made up of an army of people does not take good care of the economy. Many people here in Isaan are angry with the government. Prices are rising while their incomes are falling due to poor prices for rubber and rice.
What does the government have to do with rubber and rice prices? Just market forces, so supply and demand. Rubber production has been too high for years and demand is falling. The rice is grown for half the price in Vietnam and is therefore also of better quality, and in addition people in Vietnam can realize up to 40% yield per area. And Mazda's story is of course completely wrong: with a factor of 10x higher labor costs in Japan, a few percent exchange rate difference is nothing, and that is easy to absorb by slightly adjusting car prices. There is something else involved and that is probably that Mazda does not sell enough of the production line in question and therefore merges with that in Japan.
Small adjustment: “In Vietnam, up to 40% more yield per area can be achieved.”
I am pleased that you are so well informed about everything Thailand is concerned, at least that is how your reactions come about Ger-korat. This is the message about Mazda, about which De Telegraaf recently wrote:
TOKYO - Automaker Mazda appears to be shifting some production of cars destined for the Australian market from Thailand to Japan. According to the Japanese business newspaper Nikkei, the negative impact of the stronger Thai baht is the reason for the move.
Then your reaction regarding the fact that the Thai government cannot influence the prices of rubber and rice.
I wrote: “Prices are rising while their incomes are falling due to poor rubber and rice prices.” I think that's something different. It would be my pleasure to make your responses more positive.
You should not just accept what one (1) media writes and the other blindly adopts. I also look at the facts and read a lot of other media and then you get a different picture of what is really going on. I am also financially well versed and am an entrepreneur. And oh yes, the ruling party won re-election in Khon Kaen, a Pheu Thai stronghold. Apparently people in Isaan think more positively about the government than you write because that is reflected in the election.
Wait and then see said the blind man…
Didn't notice anything today. But it's not next year yet.
My villa is for rent and for sale, so I would like the bath to rise further.
When the baht continues to rise , your Villa becomes too expensive for foreigners .
Then try to find a Thai .
I want to sell my land in Hua Hin and then I prefer ,
If the baht falls , buyers will also come from abroad again .
A Thai does not buy a used house from a farang. A Thai buys from a Thai, but in most cases goes for a new building.
Second-hand brings bad luck to most Thai people. They are also embarrassed when they buy something second-hand. For example, a Thai will never say or show anything about his car if he bought it second-hand and not new.
Thai people all suffer from a certain form of megalomania.
As I mentioned before, I have lived and worked in Thailand since 2012, and know this country as belonging to the contents of my pocket. Partly because of my Thai wife, who comes from Korat, who earned her living for years as a kind of broker. In the years that we were back in Thailand, she took up this trade again, and sold bungalows / houses purchased and furnished by farang to Thai people. Thais love that, because they appreciate a European-tinted decoration. In this way they buy a complete living style and show it off to family, friends and colleagues. Therefore also willing to pay a good price.
There are many shops in Thailand that sell "mue song". (second-hand)
Also a lot of clothing, especially at markets. For example, shirts 50 Baht, sports shoes 200 Baht, watches, etc.
Much of the stuff is bought in bulk at the Cambodian border and sold elsewhere in Thailand.
I can supplement this with resold Mercedes Benz, the top in Thailand in terms of prestige. I see various E350e (new price from 3,5 million to 4,2 million baht) being resold second hand in my vicinity, as well as various other types. Ditto the latest Fortuners, many of which have a new price of 2 million (top model). All cars from six months to several years old. And why is that? Well, because one does not have to make the down payment of 1,8 to more than 800.000 million, but takes over the existing financing contracts and the monthly installments are continued, so 1,5nd hand is also popular with the more expensive cars because “we are frugal”, also in Thailand
Then there are the "everything for 20 baht" shops that Thailand is full of. In my village there are already three who are all doing good business. Recently sold a thirty-year-old Nissan Sunny to a Thai myself.
The governor of the Thai Bank will never devalue the Baht as the investor in the EEC has to buy the expensive Baht and the surplus is already 224 Bil. US$