News from Thailand – November 2, 2013

Thailand's underperforming public company, the State Railway of Thailand, has a nice plan to get rid of an 80 billion baht debt with the Ministry of Finance. The Ministry of Transport, which is responsible for the SRT, is proposing to finance that it leases 800 rai of land at Makkasan station and in SRT-owned Chong Nonsi for 90 to 100 years and writes off the debt in return.

Especially the land at Makkassan (497 rai) is worth gold with direct access to the skytrain, subway and Airport Rail Link. The land is valued at 600.000 baht per square wah, but when developed into a business district, the land price could easily reach 1,5 million baht, higher than the highest land price in Bangkok on Silom Road.

The plot in Chong Nonsi measures 277 rai, of which 70 rai is along the Chao Phraya, but that strip is reserved for Defense. He should give permission to develop it.

The SRT has net assets of 157 billion baht and net debt of 110 billion baht, net equity of 56,2 billion baht and accumulated debt from operations of 75,8 billion baht. The net profit margin is -112,26 percent. In total, the SRT owns 250.000 rai.

– Remarkable contradiction: the government emphasizes that the Preah Vihear case will not lead to violence on the border with Cambodia, but in the meantime the army is holding attack exercises in Si Sa Ket and residents are receiving evacuation training. The authorities are playing it safe and want residents to know what to do when fighting breaks out.

Yesterday the training started with students and teachers of the Ban Sokkkampom school in Kanthalarak. That district was hit by Cambodian missiles in 2010. One resident was killed and thirty homes were damaged. The children were taught to recognize the sound of incoming rockets, artillery shells and mortars, and they cleaned shelters. Of these, 810 are in the area.

Members of the Thammayatra group gathered at the Muang Pillar yesterday in preparation for a protest campaign. When the court rules against Thailand and Thai troops have to withdraw from the area, the group moves into the area to defend the country's territory, says Wichan Phuwiharn.

Cambodia has stationed soldiers and armed army vehicles around the temple, according to an army source. Deputy Army Commander Hun Manet, a son of Prime Minister Hun Sen, is also said to have been spotted there, as well as the Cambodian regional army commander and other commanders.

On November 11, the International Court of Justice in The Hague will rule in the case and we will know whether the 4,6 square kilometers at the temple, disputed by both countries, are Thai or Cambodian territory.

– Is the last battle against Thaksin currently being fought in Thailand? MP Korn Chatikavanij (Democrats) is not sure. But the Democrats will continue to oppose the amnesty proposal regardless of whether it is at the expense of their popularity.

Bangkok Post is paying very close attention to the proposal today. Point by point the news that I left in the posting 'The die has been cast'.

• The Senate is likely to begin consideration of the bill on November 11, coincidentally the same day the International Court of Justice in The Hague will rule in the Preah Vihear case.
• Member of Parliament Korn Chatikavanij (Democrats) hopes that the Senate will maintain its neutrality. "We'll see if the majority of senators follow the government's instructions."
• Some business organizations and the (private) Anti-Corruption Organization of Thailand have stated that they oppose the amnesty proposal.
• The anti-Thaksin coalition, the State Enterprise Workers' Relations Confederation and the Dhamma Army have called on their supporters in the country to come to Bangkok.
• Somkiat Pongpaibul, protest leader in Uruphong, Bangkok, says Phaya Thai police will try to break up the protest today. Protest leader Nitithorn Lamlua: 'We will talk to the police and remind them that we have the right to demonstrate peacefully. We are ready for confrontation when the police come to disperse.”
• The three army units each have 150 military police on standby in connection with the Internal Security Act that applies to three districts in Bangkok.
• Four red-shirt MPs abstained from voting in the vote in the House of Representatives yesterday in a departure from their own party: Worachai Hema (who introduced the original proposal), Khattiya Sawatdipol (whose father was shot dead by a sniper in 2010), Weng Tojirakarn and Natthawut Saikuar (Secretary of State for Commerce).
• Red Shirt MP Korkaew Pikulthong voted in favor of the proposal. He was apparently afraid of retaliation from the party, which has been threatened.
• Opposition Democrats did not participate in the vote, so the proposal passed by a vote of 310-0. The newspaper says nothing about the voting behavior of the small parties.
• The Rural Doctors Society opposes the proposal in a statement. She has called on hospitals across the country to put up protest banners.
• 491 academics and staff members of the National Institute of Development Administration issued a similar statement.
• In Nakhon Ratchasima, an anti-corruption network held a meeting yesterday to protest against the proposal.
• Payao Akkahad, the mother of a nurse who was shot dead in 2010, says Thaksin betrayed his supporters to make his own return possible. “From now on, red shirt members and Pheu Thai will take different paths. They fooled the people into dying on their behalf. They trample the dead bodies for their leader's return.'
• Sutachai Yimprasert, assistant professor of history at Chualongkorn University, thinks it unlikely that the red shirts will break with Pheu Thai or Thaksin. "The red shirts still love Thaksin, although they disagree with the blank amnesty."
• Sombat Boongam-anong (Red Sunday group): 'Thaksin sees what we see: the risks of the controversial proposal. But he perseveres, so he has to take full responsibility for what happened.' Sombat thinks the government will dissolve parliament when the political temperature rises.
• It is unclear whether the amnesty proposal will also have consequences for violence in the South. Aathif Shukuor (Academy of Patani Raya for Peace and Development) fears that the amnesty will encourage a culture of impunity and the use of force by security personnel.
• On Thursday, district offices in the country were ordered by the Provincial Administration Department to put up billboards with pro-amnesty texts, but that order was hastily withdrawn after protests on social media. The department had also already provided texts.
• Bangkok Post in today's editorial, calls on the Red Shirt leadership to come forward and lead a mass protest. “The proposal goes against everything the Red Shirts have fought for. The leaders owe it to the dead and their families to fight the proposal to the bitter end.”
• A group of students from Thammasat University held a symbolic protest in front of Pheu Thai's party office yesterday.

– During its mobile meeting in Lop Buri yesterday, the cabinet allocated a budget of 16,4 billion baht for development projects in Sing Buri, Lop Buri, Ang Thong and Chai Nat. The provinces have been asked to prepare detailed anti-flood plans and submit them to the Water and Flood Management Commission, which manages the 350 billion baht for water management works.

– A bit sloppy, I would say. The police who examined the Porsche of the murdered sports shooter Jakkrit Panichpatikum overlooked his mobile phone that was in the glove compartment. It turned up on a second search.

– The woman who stole a two-day-old baby from the hospital in Sadao (Songkhla) on Wednesday has been arrested. The obvious explanation: I have been married for a long time and have no children. The woman dressed up as a nurse so she could take the baby with her.

– Twenty-eight confiscated elephants have returned to their corral in Sai Yok (Kanchanaburi). The police had taken the animals on August 29 because the owner could not provide proof of ownership. Miraculously, he had them yesterday. Police determined they were all fine.

– The public hearing on the planned waterworks in Uthai Thani attracted 10.000 people yesterday. The governor received a petition with 60.000 signatures. The petition protests against the government's water management plans, for which an amount of 350 billion baht has been allocated. It is not clear from the message whether the protest only concerns the plans for Uthai Thani or all planned works.

Economic news

– Economic growth in the fourth quarter will pick up, expects the Bank of Thailand. This is in line with the trend that started in the third quarter with stable domestic consumption and private investment.

For the full year, the BoT expects economic growth of 3,7 percent, 0,5 percent less than its July forecast. The Fiscal Policy Office also forecasts 3,7 percent, the National Economic and Social Development is slightly more optimistic at 3,8 to 4,3 percent.

In the third quarter, exports contracted by 1,65 percent on an annual basis, less than in the second quarter when they were down 2,18 percent. Exports improved slightly despite an increase in global demand, but the early mortality syndrome at shrimp threw a spanner in the works.

Domestic spending was stable in September; households are holding their purse strings because of their accumulated debts. Inflation fell to 1,42 percent thanks to lower prices in all categories.

Tourism is still going well. In the third quarter, the increase was 26,1 percent with 2,1 million foreign tourists arriving, mainly from China, Malaysia and Russia.

– The Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) of the SCB expects economic growth to reach 4,5 percent next year. This is thanks to an increase in exports and government spending on infrastructure projects. The central bank keeps it at 4,8 percent.

The EIC expects public spending to reach 476 billion baht next year, money coming from the 350 billion baht budget for water works and from the 2 trillion baht that will be borrowed for infrastructure works. The waterworks are currently stalled as the court has ordered public hearings and impact assessments to be held before the works are carried out. Of the 53 water projects, 29 have completed an EIA (environmental impact assessment).

The main engine for economic growth next year will be exports. It is expected to rise 1,5 percent this year, and 8 percent next year, thanks to improved exports to China, Europe and regional markets. An uncertain factor is the scaling back of QE by the US FED. This is likely to start early next year. This changes the flow of capital and exchange rates. The baht will fall slightly in value next year.

The EIC expects the Bank of Thailand to policy rate at 2,5 percent to prevent pressure on inflation and because household debt will decrease. The EIC does not view the current political tensions as detrimental to the country's economy or business climate. "We have been living under political tension for 10 years," said Sutapa Amornvivat, chief economist and vice president.

www.dickvanderlugt.nl – Source: Bangkok Post

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