News from Thailand – November 13, 2013

How much territory of the 4,6 square kilometers at Hindu temple Preah Vihear, disputed by both countries, has Thailand 'lost' to Cambodia? There is already controversy over this. An army source estimates 40 to 50 rai, a senator thinks 625 to 935 rai (1 to 1,5 square kilometers) and a historian says more than 150 rai. [1 rai=1.600 square meters]

What it will ultimately be depends on negotiations between Thailand and Cambodia. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has called on both countries to reach an agreement on this 'in good faith', after the so-called promotion, on which the temple stands, assigned to Cambodia.

The hill Phnom Trap or Phu Makhua, which is in the disputed area, is not one of them. The promontory of Preah Vihear and Phnom Trap are two separate geographic characteristics, according to the Court. Cambodian troops are stationed on Phnom Trap.

However, Cambodia may get the area with the Keo Sikha Kiri Svara pagoda, a market, a couple of huts, the (closed since 2008) entrance to Preah Vihear, an old border police station, the small river Tanee and the land under the promotion is. In total the 40 to 50 rai mentioned by the army source. The Pa-Mor E-Dan cliff is likely to remain in Thai hands.

Other Preah Vihear news:

• Thai and Cambodian soldiers gathered at the pagoda yesterday. Both countries agreed not to conduct military operations along the border. The heads of each military unit will meet more often to avoid misunderstandings. They also keep in touch by phone. Troops from both countries will not be withdrawn until the two governments reach an agreement.
• Prime Minister Yingluck called the Court's ruling yesterday a 'win-win' result for both countries, as it helps prevent border conflicts. A special panel has been formed to study the verdict. Only then will Thailand negotiate with Cambodia. The troops, meanwhile, remain in place. Today the government and the Thai ambassador in the Netherlands will give an explanation in parliament.
• Senator Kamnoon Sitthisamarn believes that the government should not immediately follow the verdict because some aspects are unclear. He calls for a referendum. Two other senators say the government is not telling the truth that Thailand has lost territory to Cambodia.
• Sihasak Phuangketkeow, permanent secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is concerned about attempts by some media outlets to interpret the verdict as a win or a loss. “Negotiations are yet to take place. We are determined to protect our sovereignty and territory in accordance with the law and international law.”
• Historian Thepmontri Limpaphayom (yellow shirt) says Ambassador Virachai Plasai, leader of the legal team in the Netherlands, is not telling the whole truth. Virachai's comment that Thailand "loses nothing" is not true. [NB Thepmontri twists the ambassador's words] 'I am saddened by the loss of the temple grounds.'
• Former senator Jermsak Pinthong, academic Walwipha Charoonroj and Samdin Lertbut of the Dharma Army [Cor Verhoef on Thailand blog about this 'army': a bunch of crybabies] made similar statements. Samdin: 'It's not a win-win situation. Thailand has been losing territory for decades.'
• Anyone interested in the verdict can find it here: http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/151/17704.pdf

– The government expects the number of participants in the anti-government protests to dwindle because it has promised to withdraw the controversial amnesty proposal. Paradorn Pattanatabut, secretary general of the National Security Council, says most people are satisfied with the Senate's rejection of the proposal and the ICJ's verdict in the Preah Vihear case.

Paradorn is calling on the population to ignore rally leader Suthep Thaugsuban's call for work stoppages from today to Friday. Suporn Atthawong, deputy secretary general to the prime minister, says people are breaking the law when they heed the call, leading to chaos in the country.

Deputy Prime Minister Plodprasop Suraswadi expects Suthep and his eight colleagues (pictured; Suthep is the man with his head held high), who resigned as MPs, to return in midterm elections. He calls on the Electoral Council to send the gentlemen an invoice for those elections. Eight of the nine are district MPs, so by-elections will have to be held there.

– Pheu Thai spokesperson Prompong Nopparit has asked the Department of Special Investigation (DSI, the Thai FBI) ​​to investigate the nine Democrats. He accuses rally leader Suthep of stirring up unrest. [When I see Suthep speak on TV, I can't help feeling that a devilishly pur sang is speaking.]

According to Prompong, the dismissal violates the Penal Code and can be considered treason. He has also asked the DSI to investigate the financiers of the Ratchadamnoen Avenue rally, including the governor of Bangkok and the city clerk.

Suthep has called for work to be interrupted from today until Friday, to postpone payment of taxes, to wear a badge with the national tricolor and to blow a whistle when someone from the government is spotted.

– The Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Board of Trade of Thailand and the Federation of Thai Industries reject the call for work stoppages and tax deferrals. They also oppose any dissolution of the House of Representatives. The three believe the protests can end because the Senate has rejected the amnesty proposal and the coalition parties have promised not to try again.

The Rural Doctors Society supports the call for work stoppages. Civil disobedience is a non-violent means of action and encourages participation by individuals and groups. But the health sector should not go on strike, it should be ready 24 hours a day.

The Thai Airways International union leaves the decision to the individual members. The union of railway workers is against work stoppages.

– The Tourism Council of Thailand does not expect tourism to be damaged if the protests remain under control. The president thinks that the target of 26,2 million tourists, bringing in 1,8 trillion baht, will be achieved this year. However, domestic tourism will feel the consequences of the protests, says Piyaman Tejapaibul. So far, sixteen countries have issued a travel advisory for Thailand.

– Three anti-government groups have asked the king to set up a 'people's council' to replace the Yingluck government. Yesterday some XNUMX supporters marched to the office of His Majesty's Principal Private Secretary at the Grand Palace and handed over a petition. The second private secretary received the letter.

– The 'cold' season is coming and that means the risk of the outbreak of three potentially deadly diseases. The Ministry of Health fears an outbreak of avian influenza, caused by the viruses H5N1 and H7N9 and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers), caused by a new virus related to Sars.

H5N1 was last seen in Thailand seven years ago. The virus can enter the country through poultry imports. Thailand has not been affected by H7N9 and Mers before, but that is no guarantee for the future. Birds migrating to Thailand from China may be a source of H7N9, and travelers who have visited the Middle East may bring Mers with them.

The ministry is monitoring all 10.400 Muslims returning from the Hajj in Saudi Arabia this month. The population has been warned not to eat poultry that has succumbed to a disease.

– I am innocent, lawyer Santi Thongsem pleaded yesterday, who is suspected of having hired the men who shot dead Olympic champion Jakkrit in his Porsche last month. He voluntarily turned himself in to the police after an arrest warrant was issued against him. Police plan to advise against bail. See also News from Thailand from yesterday.

– My favorite princess is recovering from having a kidney stone removed from her right kidney. For now, she has to stay in Chulalongkorn Hospital. In case you're wondering who I'm talking about: the lovable princess who always takes notes and photos during visits, just like her father at the time, Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn.

– Three people died in a fire in a market building in Pathum Thani. Nine others were injured. The fire broke out in a shop that sells fireworks. Firefighters had the fire under control within an hour.

– Yes, we have another train derailment. This time, the diesel express Bangkok-Nong Khai derailed at a level crossing in Udon Thani. Three trainsets went off the rails and eight people were injured. The culprit was a concrete slab that had been moved by heavy truck traffic.

Economic news

– The economy will be damaged in the short term by the political demonstrations, predicts Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong (Finance), but they will not be a problem for investors as long as they remain peaceful. If the demonstrations degenerate into violence, investor confidence will be "tremendously" shaken, he says. Economists react differently to the political situation.

Suphawut Saichua, director of Phrata Securities, expects the economy to be hit whether the government decides to go ahead or dissolve the House of Representatives. 'Popular confidence in the government has been shaken. Dissolving the House means we need more time for general elections and the formation of a new cabinet. That is why it affects economic growth.' Suphawat thinks that the stock market will also come under pressure. "Foreign investors have not yet reacted to the Thai political news because there were more interesting world economic updates."

Usara Wilaipich (Standard Chartered Bank) agrees that foreign investors are not yet concerned, but that's because they're familiar with a decade of Thai political uncertainty. He points out that despite the escalating political tension, the number of applications for investment privileges to the Board of Investment increased in 2012-2013, especially from Japanese investors. "For FDI (foreign direct investment), foreigners pay more attention to long-term developments than to the short-term economic situation."

Sutapa Amornvivat (Siam Commercial Bank), on the other hand, believes that FDI is indeed affected, given the smaller flow of FDI to Thailand compared to neighboring countries.

Businesses do expect tourism to be affected by the ruling of the International Court of Justice in the Preah Vihear case. Niyom Wairatpanij of the Thai Chamber of Commerce thinks border trade will not be damaged, but tourism will be because tourists can only reach the temple via Cambodia instead of Thailand.

– The Mice industry (meetings, incentives, conventions, exhibitions) will have a hard time next year due to the increasing political tensions, expects the Thailand Convention & Exhibition Bureau (TCEB). The XNUMX to XNUMX Mice activities planned for January have all been confirmed, but activities planned from February onwards may be postponed if it turns violent.

“When violence breaks out, we put a war room to tackle the problems on a day-to-day basis,” said Supawan Teerarat, TCEB Vice President for strategic and business development.

Competition is fierce at the moment, as many countries are trying to get their share. Besides Singapore and Malaysia, Indonesia is a formidable competitor.

The TCEB expects 5 percent more visitors for next year than the 987.00 predicted for this year. Turnover grows by 10 percent to 96,9 billion baht. To promote the Thai Mice industry, the agency has a budget of 880 million baht.

– Farmers can produce rice seeds better than rice now that they get at most 8.200 to 8.300 baht for a ton of paddy. They get that amount when they sell their rice to millers. Many farmers do not offer their rice for the mortgage system because they have to wait too long for their money or they receive less than the guaranteed price of 15.000 baht per ton because the rice has too high a moisture content. And there are also farmers who produce more rice than the maximum they are allowed to hand in.

The suggestion to switch to seed production was made by the Thai Seed Trade Association. Several seed companies are already working with farmers' organizations to promote seed production so that farmers earn more. A ton of rice seed does 23.000 baht, but it requires a significant investment. To produce 20 tons of seed per month, an investment of 20 million baht is needed for a dryer, sorting machine and climate-controlled storage space. In addition, verification by the Rice Department is required before the seed can be sold.

Many farmers do not buy seed, but replant the grain, resulting in a low yield. The average yield per rai is low in Thailand anyway: 454 kilos against 803 kilos in Vietnam, 588 kilos in Malaysia, 579 kilos in Laos and 576 kilos in the Philippines.

Some scientists advise farmers to switch to other types of rice, such as Khao Leum Pua black glutinous rice or Rice Berry, two types of rice with a higher nutritional value.

www.dickvanderlugt.nl – Source: Bangkok Post

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