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Home » News from Thailand » Anti Prayut coalition in the making
Anti Prayut coalition in the making
Sudarat Keyuraphan of the Pheu Thai Party (Sek Samyan / Shutterstock.com)
The latest news is that tomorrow (Wednesday) at 10.00 a.m. at the Lancaster Hotel in Bangkok, the five largest anti-junta parties (Pheu Thai, Future Forward, Seri Ruam Thai, Prachachat and Pheu Chat) get together to talk formation of a new government.
The parties together hold 251 of the 500 parliamentary seats and therefore have a narrow majority.
The source of this message is the Matichon daily newspaper.
(thanks to Tino Kuis)
https://www.matichon.co.th/politics/news_1425384
Cut & Paste:
Pheu Thai, Future Forward and at least 4 more parties will try to form a coalition. With or without Bhumjaithai or the Democrats (the latter are by definition already against Phue Thai, it now appears, see previous comments). They would then possibly have 251 seats. A majority of 1 seat in the 500 member parliament. But not enough for a prime minister, because if that senate votes, then practically only Prayut can become prime minister. And the chance that the junta/senate will not use its power seems nil.
See:
https://m.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1651424/pheu-thai-to-announce-coalition
A Phue Thai cabinet with Prime Minister Prayut is not going to work. That is complete stop. So Phalang (Prayut's party) will also do everything to form a power bloc together with the Democrats. A minority government perhaps? Or will the final result be that the 6 democracy parties just don't have a majority of seats?
That the Democrats will cooperate with the Junta will cost them their heads, they have already been brought to the slaughter, when they make this choice, they will really be slaughtered.
Matichon did not mention the sixth party that will also participate, namely Sethakid Mai or the New Economy Party. Together they would have 252 seats out of 500, a small majority. Not completely sure yet because the actual official result is not yet available. The question then is what will Prayut do? Exciting times.
The Bangkok Post also reports on this
https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1651424/pheu-thai-to-announce-coalition
Well, there is still time until May (official result) to find out that the distribution of seats is slightly different from what has now been announced for the time being. The advantage then does not lie with the 5 or 6 parties that now want to merge. With a little creative counting you can do that. It should be clear that I do not consider these elections to be fair.
It seems that Thailand is entering an unclear political time.
The Palang Pracharat party has practically no possibility to form a coalition government with a 2nd chamber majority (but can elect the Prime Minister with the 1st chamber vote) and the PhuaThai party can create a coalition majority, but probably not elect a Prime Minister.
There are a few options, all of which will lead to a high degree of instability.
1. The Palang Pracharat forms a minority coalition with Prayut as prime minister. A clear question that must then be asked is how Prayut can deal with a majority in the opposition. As a (former) soldier he tolerates no contradiction, and that has proven to be the case over the past 5 years. In addition, a minority coalition will not be able to govern effectively.
2. The Phua Thai forms a majority coalition with the BJT party. In this scenario, both Sudarat and Anutin could become prime minister. The chance that the 1st chamber agrees with Sudarat is very small. Anutin may be acceptable. Anutin's BJT party must of course agree to this coalition, which will then have a reasonable majority in the 2nd chamber.
If Prayut cannot become prime minister, the Palang Pracharat party is expected to fall apart. After all, Prayut as prime minister has been the only reason for setting up this party.
A 3 scenario is the annulment of this election round. This is a realistic scenario, given the many errors and irregularities that have been observed. On the website http://www.change.org have already received more than 774.000 signatures to dissolve the electoral commission. If, for whatever reason, the electoral commission resigns before May 9, no final result can be announced before the deadline, and this election round is automatically null and void.
In short, in the current situation we have a Junta coalition with a prime minister but a 2nd chamber minority and an anti-Junta coalition without a prime minister with a 2nd chamber majority.
I just read the joint statement of those 6 anti-junta parties issued this morning. It says clearly and distinctly: 'We are going to work together to break the power of the NCPO (the junta).' Strong language…A repeat of 1992? I hope not…..
Prayut can only be very happy with such broad political cooperation across party boundaries.
For five years every Friday night on all Thai TV stations has asked, begged, threatened, desired, pleaded for more unity and cooperation in the interest of the nation. His ultimate goal was to defeat the crippling polarization. No more blockade of Bangkok, forward with the country.
Thanks to the elections, the much-coveted political/administrative cooperation between parties is finally coming into view. The highest goal is within reach. One more little courageous self-sacrifice. One military heroic act. Hopefully he won't be stopped by "brother in arms" like Mr. prawit. The nation is crying out for a hero.
Rejoice and be glad, all men of good will
On his last election campaign, Prayut said this at the end:
'I want to die for Thailand'.
That says every soldier, in every country in the world.
And every revolutionary, in every country in the world.
And….it actually happens.
According to the latest reports in, among others, BangkokPost, 7 parties started talks today at the instigation of Pheu Thai: they will try to form a coalition government. The 7 parties have approximately 252 parliamentary seats. But they need 376 including the Senate to deliver a PM. Or will that work? Meanwhile, KhaoSodEnglish reports that the pro-junta parties are absolutely convinced that they have the right to form a majority government and put forward a PM, as more votes gained. Should that happen, one half of the nation would be angry, if the other half would be angry. There will be a stalemate.
The question is whether a meeting under this heading is really useful? Wouldn't it be better to wait for the formal result of May 9? After that, there's still plenty of time to squabble.
The US, EU and UK have expressed concern over reports of numerous irregularities throughout the electoral process.
Phalang is not happy, they say that since they have the most votes (not the most seats), they have the right to be the first to form a coalition. They are also working on that and believe they have sufficient support, but they do not say who the coalition partners of the pro-Prayut camp are.
According to the junta, the parties should wait until May (after coronation and final election results) to try to form a coalition.
Sources:
- http://www.khaosodenglish.com/politics/2019/03/27/pro-junta-party-furious-at-pheu-thai-coalition-bid/
- http://www.khaosodenglish.com/politics/2019/03/27/phalang-pracharath-insists-on-leading-coalition-wont-name-allies/
Most of what I read is speculation. The anti-military parties are prematurely dividing up the spoils.
The 150 remaining seats, which will only be known in May, are the deciding factor. After that, it is quite possible that new elections will be called. Then Prayut can continue for a while.
Either way, there's going to be trouble. Pheu Thai would like to form a coalition, but certainly not led by Prayuth.
He wouldn't mind that either, in my opinion.
If he forms a coalition with Palang himself, Pheu Thai and FFP will be unhappy.
If in May the final (creative or otherwise) count would show that Pheu Thai is not the largest, then there will also be some unrest.
In any case, once the coronation has taken place with Prayuth in the front row, the unrest will spread. And is intervention by the army not entirely imaginary?
Would Prayut rather see himself in that front row than hand over a stabilized country with restored democratic institutions to His (new) Royal Highness on his inauguration?
Surely it is inconceivable that this man who lives, and even claims to die, should deny such a wonderful worldwide prestigious gift to the Prince for his country?
When opening this particular article, a popup appears from Matichon's website asking for a login name and password. Even after deleting cookies and logging in to VPN, this popup still appears! WTF is that?
You have malware in this post which is created by an integrated Iframe with the link to http://www.matichon.co.th which shows a popup asking for username and password.
When you set “data-gr-cs-loaded=”true” to false in the source code, you can only respond (as I am doing now).
I also got the pop up but could just click it away.
I had the same and could just close it
Thailand is heading for tough times and Prayut is definitely not going to the barracks.
No dictator will voluntarily step down to hand over his power…..never…..
In the official election results, Prayut's party emerges as the big winner.
That's Politics
He hasn't done too badly either because Thailand has remained stable and the Bath is doing a lot better than the Euro in terms of performance, but that's another story.
TonyM
The key to the solution of the current political situation (division, not only between red and yellow, poor and rich, but also between old and young) does not lie with the political parties and their leaders, but with the individual senators. If the Senate (and part of parliament) votes for Prayut as prime minister, they saddle him with a minority government and a hostile parliament. None of the current 7 coalition parties (together the majority in parliament) want to work with him. I don't think they even give him the benefit of the doubt. This is very likely to lead to an unworkable and paralyzing political situation.
If the senate votes for a prime minister who comes from one of the camps of the 7 coalition parties, they are actually cheating whoever appointed them. And the result is a government that is anti-junta, making new clashes between the parliament and the senate more common in the near future. (reversal of decisions, reform of the army etc)
Would the best solution then be that the elections be declared invalid? And that the party that probably has the most irregularities and unequal chances on its conscience will gain the most benefit? Does Prayut really think that he can come to power democratically with fair elections or will he suffer a much more sensitive defeat?