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Home » Reader question » Reader question: What's going on with the exchange rate?
Reader question: What's going on with the exchange rate?
Dear readers,
Why has the exchange rate fluctuated so much lately? Is the Baht getting stronger or is the Euro weaker? A while ago the baht was still at 40. Now it is 37 again.
I have to transfer a large amount to Thailand in December, better wait until the exchange rate picks up again?
Anyone have any idea?
Regards,
Daan
The price development of the euro is highly dependent on speculation about an impending interest rate increase in the US and the European Central Bank has also announced that it will continue with stimulus measures that will depress the value of the Euro compared to, among other things, the dollar. This makes European products cheaper for export. This stimulates the internal European economy. The fact that the value increased in September and October was partly because it appeared that the ECM stimulus measures would stop. Currency rates are not absolute and, in addition to hard economic principles, also have to do with emotion, expectations and speculation. I don't want to make it more fun.
The euro has not fluctuated lately (= months): it is falling!
Cause: Mario Draghi!!! Likely expansion of QE by ECB–> euro falls in value.
Mario will make the decision next Thursday afternoon.
If we (in Thailand) are lucky, it won't work.
Or: if we are lucky, this is already included in the prices.
The Thai baht is more or less pegged to the dollar.
The euro has recently lost a lot of value against the dollar.
In October you still got $ 1,11 for a euro. Now it's down to $1,03
We owe that to Mr Draghi of the EU.
It seems that he wants to make the euro equal to the dollar. Count out your profit
the pensioners in Thailand.
the $ has long since ceased to be linked to the baht, not more or less the (tr) euro is simply declining due to various causes and a weaker euro now it can turn out much better in 5 years time it is a matter of time
I have no idea, Daan, what the course will do in the coming weeks.
But confidence in the EU is of course declining due to the arrival of the refugees, after all, they will have to eat and sleep, so that costs the economy claws with money.
And building a fence between former Yugoslavia and Europe doesn't really help either, then they just sail to Italy by boat. No, I see it gloomy for Europe in the coming period and that will therefore depress the Euro.
The above is a gut reaction, not based on facts or any basic knowledge of what is currently going on in the European economy and finances.
Money spent on sheltering refugees is money that flows almost entirely back into the economy, so there is no or negligible influence on the euro exchange rate against the dollar (in the early 90s more refugees arrived and then the exchange rate of the euro fell guilders either). In addition, (in the Netherlands) part of the (already reserved) budget for development money is spent on this.
The EU has 500 million inhabitants, if 1 million are added that is 0,2% of the population.
Suppose a refugee costs 1000 euros per month, then that is 1 billion per month for the entire EU.
Those costs are also nothing compared to the 1200 billion with which the ECB is buying debt securities from banks. Bonds are bought from banks for about 60 billion a month. Next Thursday, the ECB will probably announce that this will be expanded by 20 billion + several months longer than the previous deadline, September 2016.
The value of the euro has been talked down by Draghi for a year. And received an extra move down as a result of the announced 1200 billion in January (200 more than expected, hence the extra move down). At the end of October, Draghi already gave a hint that he will expand QE -> the euro immediately fell.
In short: the euro exchange rate has nothing to do with the several tens of billions of euros that Europe has to spend on the refugee problem, but everything with the 1200 to 1400 billion that the ECB is 'printing'.
excuse me
It has to do with the interest rate increase in usa
With stimulation from the ecb
And the refugees have nothing to do with that
That comes from a big jar of eu
Don't just blame the refugees
Blame Europe
hello indeed the euro is falling and a lot too against the US Dollar 1,07 so the Baht is normal but the Euro is the problem !
Would wait until the end of Dec… high season… It used to be 6 years ago at 52, now that Bath is high so wait and see….. The influx is now high Dec-Jan-Feb… Then that Bath will be 45 to 50 again.
A lower exchange rate for the euro is better for the economy in Europe, but obviously less good for the exchange rate of the Bath, which is linked to the $. There are some international banks that have already predicted that next year we will get 1 euro for 1 $. So less BTH for your euro. You don't know what the future will bring, but given the falling value of the euro, I would take the current rate for granted, given the short time in which you want to transfer money.
Maybe this site gives more info: http://www.belegger.nl/Column/169102/Euro-naar-103-dollar.aspx
The predictions of the specialists are that the bath drops to Bath 35, the monetary fund that the west works with is under threat.
The debt that the US has is as high as the interest it has to pay, one of the reasons is that China and Russia no longer want to be paid in dollars for energy and goods, only in Rubles and Yuan.
The dollars that both countries receive through the long-term contracts are immediately converted into physical gold, China and Russia buy up a huge amount of gold.
All debt securities owned by China and Russia are thrown onto the market, if too many Pedro dollars come onto the market, the dollar drops in value and takes the EURO with it.
If it continues like this and the dollar is refused, China and Russia will switch to only wanting to be paid in physical gold, then the turnips are cooked.
China and Russia are fighting an economic war and the West has no answer to that, if Europe does business with Russia it will become a powerful bloc.
The US is only trying to destabilize the case, Ukraine has failed, now they are busy with Syria and their friend Turkey.
The power of the US is slowly coming to an end.
Source: Market Update.
Yuan is pegged to the $ and the gold price is falling significantly. The US has too much debt, but not to such an extent that its economy is in immediate danger. I don't see the $ collapsing any time soon as the above suggests.
Unfortunately, we can expect to get less BTH for our euro.
Rene, you should read Nico's piece a little further on, it says the same as Leon's.
I have looked at the gold reserves at both the central bank of Russia and China,
I think 2016 will be the big bang.
Laksi
The ECB wants to accelerate inflation in the eurozone. The current bond purchase program has so far not had the intended effect. It is expected that Draghi will announce at least two things next Thursday: a further reduction in the deposit rate for banks and an extension/extension of the aforementioned purchase program. This, coupled with a first rate hike in the US a few weeks later, followed by at least two more rate hikes in 2016, will put heavy pressure on the euro. Parity (1 dollar = 1 euro) could be a fact as early as next week. But it won't stop there. Living in Cambodia, a dollar economy, I've already geared up for lean times.
Despite the good intentions of many posters, no one knows. The fact is that Draghi is aiming for parity with the dollar, and that he also wants to fuel inflation. But… there is also a counterforce coming, and this is because of China. That country wants to reduce its dependence on the dollar. Together with countries in Asia. No one knows yet how this will develop, but it will also affect the course of the Bath. What eg Gerold says above, with all due respect, makes no sense at all.
Moderator: Please do not chat.
I think it could still be too bad with the fall of the euro against the baht. Euro will go down, but less than most think. Maybe we're done with 37 baht.
It is not just that the euro is weakening. It is especially that the dollar is strengthening against all currencies. So that softens the loss of the euro against the baht.
Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if the Bank of Thailand cuts interest rates in the coming months, pushing the baht down to boost ailing exports.
Both the baht and the euro are falling sharply. A few years ago you still got 45 baht for a euro and 32 baht for a dollar. The euro is now falling slightly faster than the baht, today 30-11-2015 the euro is at 1,0567 against the dollar and 37,58 against the baht. Exchange rates fluctuate with respect to each other, for various reasons.
It is difficult to say what will go up / down in the near future, I bet that the dollar will be worth more compared to both Euro and Baht. As long as Thailand's political instability continues, i.e. the army does not leave for the barracks, the baht will weaken.
I also think that the Thai government will apply either a devaluation or an interest rate cut to reduce the too high Bhat rate.
On the other hand, there is of course the “gold fall of Putin” affecting the world currency and the Chinese decision not to buy US bonds anymore.
Russia only sells oil, gas and titanium against gold (which is kept artificially low by the west). See the gold reserves of the Central Bank of Russia, which have increased enormously in the last quarter. (55 tons)
China sells 5 times as much to America as the other way around. As a result, China has a huge surplus of dollars, which were converted into US government bonds. China has stopped this and is now also buying gold from the market. See the gold reserves of the Central Bank of China.
But gold is physical and limited, this artificially “low” price kept by Western governments will come to an end (when???)
The oil price is also kept artificially “low” to force Russia. But the Russian bear does not allow himself to be led by America, like the Netherlands and all other European countries.
If the physical amount of gold is no longer available, America must let go of the artificial price. Then gold and oil prices will rise spectacularly and the US dollar will collapse.
The alternative for America is to provoke a war, as attempted with Ukraine. Advice for the Netherlands was to attack those sepratists. But fortunately Rutte did not choose that.
Other countries were also not eager to help Ukraine.
But a war with Russia is too big and NATO won't win, so one has to watch with sorrow as the dollar falls into Putin's "golden trap".
To be continued.
Nico