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Home » Reader question » Reader question: The Euro
Dear readers,
Dutch people who live in Thailand according to the course of events with the euro with suspicion. Will Italy cause the euro to implode or will this country with a national debt of more than 2.000 billion euros be kept afloat at all costs by the northern countries, including the Netherlands?
And is the euro still worth anything in those cases? Is your pension still worth something and also your state pension? Then the question is whether we are doing well to transfer our Dutch savings to Thailand now to save what can be saved, even with the current low exchange rate?
Regards,
Hans
“Dutch people who live in Thailand according to the course of events with the euro with suspicion.” (quote)
I am one of the Dutch people living in Thailand and in 12 years I have never really looked at the exchange rate of the Euro, and certainly not with suspicion. I am therefore one of those Dutch people who work here and receive their salary in Thai Baht. And my pension accrued in the Netherlands is greater than my salary. The Euro really needs to implode before I notice the negative consequences. And if that happens…then I will continue to work alongside my Dutch pension, albeit part-time.
I think that's a good attitude, don't worry in advance and don't worry people.
It's ok to look ahead a bit, but imagining all kinds of scenarios that might not happen anyway doesn't make sense, it will only make you sad.
Solving problems when they actually arise.
It will not go that fast, the Italian populists will also have to comply with the European budget rules.
Just wait a little longer for the consequences of Brexit for Great Britain to be visible to even the most stupid populist.
Another 2 years and then we will be rid of the biggest threat to the Euro (Trump), so hang on.
Ehh, have you been living under a rock for the past few years? There is hardly any country that has complied with the European budget rules, and the sanctions are zero point zero.
Last Wednesday I exchanged a thousand Euro for Thai Baht at Schiphol.
I only got Thb 31.000 for it. Not so long ago, the exchange rate fluctuated at about Thb 38 for a Euro.
With a populist government in Italy that would like to see the national debt rise by many billions, I fear that the end of the price fall is not yet in sight.
If you had exchanged that day in Thailand, you would have received around 6500 baht more ……. In terms of exchange rate, buying bahts in the Netherlands is the worst choice. This applies not only to the baht, but also to other, less common currencies.
GJ Krol, you'd better change in Bangkok.
I suspect you are comparing apples and oranges here. If you exchange euros for baht at one of the expensive places (bank in the Netherlands and even then at the airport), you cannot use the official exchange rate as a point of comparison. If you had changed in Thailand you would have been considerably better off. But there is also a warning here. Changing after customs at the airport will cost you about two to three baht per euro. If you go to the bottom floor, so at the entrance to the airlink, you will get a significantly better rate!
Last April at a bureau de change on Sukhumvit, corner Soi 7 (Under Sky Train Station NaNa) received a rate of 38,7
The best exchange rates are always paid at this exchange office. Usually better than the well-known "Superrich".
Under BTS Nana, according to Google maps that is Vasu Exchange. That one (and Sia + the various Super Rich companies) is indeed also featured on the websites that readers suggested:
https://www.thailandblog.nl/thailand-tips/geld-wisselen-thailand-tips/
Who is also going to exchange money at Schiphol? That really is the worst idea ever
Always check exchange rates.
The Euro is being put under pressure from 2 sides, namely:
1. Actions from the White House with the White Crested at the helm. Trade war and the certain failure of the pre-June 12 axes. scheduled meeting between White Crested and Rocket Man. Because the latter will not unilaterally destroy its nuclear weapons.
2. Financial misconduct of southern EU countries, namely Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy. And not to forget a number of Eastern European countries.
If the EU does not take drastic measures in the short term, the Euro will slip further. And will there be consequences for some pensioners in Thailand.
Don't believe that Trump is the cause, he knows how to keep the USD much stronger than the EU's Euro with his politics. If you had exchanged your Euros for USD 6 months ago, you would have had about 10% more in Bath now. The man just does what he promised, while the men in Brussels just spend more money on their own hobbies. And to bring about no discipline at all in the expenditure policy.
If you have Euros and don't want to bring them to Thailand, you just have to convert half into USD or gold.
The Euro is really going to implode, because it is not a currency that is positive for everyone ... but we will probably get a Neuro and a Zeuro and that does not have to be a bad thing if you have your Euros in a Dutch bank.
I work for the Eurosystem and I am convinced that the euro will continue to exist, but a political crisis in any Eurozone country always weighs on the euro. Now the Italian elections are throwing a spanner in the works again. Fortunately, we still have Macron and Merkel.
I certainly follow the euro with suspicion! I bought a villa in Thailand. Paid a small advance two months ago and I'll pay the principal tomorrow. My loss due to the “crisis” (EUR has fallen 10% against the USD) is EUR 6.000 tomorrow compared to the rate at the time of my advance payment (at 38,25 and tomorrow perhaps around 37,20).
Implode? The Italian lira did that... In June 1960 (only made freely convertible that year) 60 lira for 1 Hfl, and in 2002: 880 lira for 1 Hfl (1938 for 1 €). That is 1/14th of the comparative Hfl value. (and compared to the DM even 10+10% more dramatic).
When I first came to Thailand, the Hfl was worth a 14 THB. (so *2,2 = 31THB). In recent years, the €uro has been worth between 53 and 34 THB, so ? ? ?
In your question you are left with option 3: the rest of €uroland will simply leave Italy to the wishes of its voters = total poverty collapse.
And even bigger: the northern countries accept their loss and go over to the Neuro. Consequence: all amounts lent to (among others) Italy, approx. 680 billion, of which 274 billion from France alone, €9.2 from ABP and €1,9 billion from NN, will therefore largely evaporate. Difficult for the pensions of civil servants and insured persons at NN. Presumably Gr, Sp and Pt will also get into trouble, and maybe Fr too. Then we have really lost a lot of savings in Greater Germany. If only they should have kept those “60% and 3%” intact. Thanks to our politicians (including Salmon with too weak knees, because then Italy would never have entered the €uro, let alone Gr) and the voters, who let them down: you and me.
Of course you should never take a step in another economic and currency zone, if it is actually possible or not. And moreover: don't forget, your biggest expense in the last years of your life is NOT housing, clothing or food, but medical care for the elderly. see https://www.nemokennislink.nl/publicaties/zorguitgaven-tijdens-een-mensenleven/
And there is none in Thailand…
The ECB buys up the national debt in an emergency and nothing changes. The same happened before thanks to Greece and the economy has been running at full speed in the Netherlands for some years now. You can start to think doom and gloom, but that is not the reality.
another reality is ... the purchase of government bonds of all countries by the ECB means that all countries can be put under pressure by the ECB. If a country does not want to cooperate in drawing up a new rule, the weapon of debt securities can be used. and by the way…who is the boss of the ECB now… This could be a lot of fun.
That chance is just as great as Hillary Clinton becoming the first female president of the US or the Dutch national team becoming champion in Russia. You can worry about anything, especially things you can't change. If you smoke, the chance that you will not reach your pension is greater than that the Euro will implode.
I too am concerned about the crumbling exchange rate of the Euro .
The entire European Union is becoming increasingly unstable.
And the Italians will contribute a lot to that .
By the way, I read this week that Italy is one of the largest economies in the world, larger than Germany and Russia.
And you can't blame Donald Trump for contributing to the low Euro.
To park all your money in Thailand on Thai banks and in Bathtjes certainly doesn't seem like a good idea to me.
You would be better off converting Euros into the US dollar.
I still find the US Dollar to be a safe haven in times of crisis throughout the years .
I myself have been thinking about part of my hard-earned money for a while now and refuse to park the ABNAMRO in Singapore for the time being.
Singapore is a stable country and financial center of the entire region.
Jan Beute.
And which country has the largest national debt in the world? Indeed the USA
And, of course, the greatest defense for when countries become uncooperative and suddenly want to see their debts paid off.
Singapore, DBS bank is recommended, several times named the safest bank in Asia.
Agree. It is also expected that the Thai baht will undergo a devaluation. Is becoming too expensive, harming exports. Did the rich bring in a lot of money (manipulated?)
who were able to pad their bank accounts abroad by siphoning off their black money and baht at far too high a rate.
And also keep in mind that inflation in Thailand is higher than in the Netherlands or Belgium.
You can also take a euro account. then you only exchange what is necessary
The disadvantage of a Euro account is that you cannot withdraw euros to exchange it at an exchange office of your choice. You will be paid your withdrawal of Euros in baht according to the exchange rate of the bank where you have your Euro account.
It is better to rent a safety box at a bank or another safe place and deposit your Euros there so that you have the freedom to exchange your Euros wherever you want.
Trapped in the Euro
Although it has been some time since we last wrote about the euro experiment, we believe that the underlying issues are still largely unresolved. Namely: not all euro countries have a similar economy, national correction options have been specified together with the national currency, while there is also hardly any support in Europe for the transfer of funds.
As a result of the above, the southern European countries are trapped in the euro, along with the northern European ones. The low interest rates and the large-scale purchase of debt by the European Central Bank temporarily made the problem less visible, but certainly did not solve it. There is a good chance that the euro crisis will flare up again at some point, this time possibly in Italy.
Worry about Italy
As it currently stands, Italy is getting a new government coalition consisting of a remarkable alliance: the Five Star Movement together with the Lega Nord. Translated to the Dutch situation, a government coalition consisting of the SP and the PVV. Two parties that have little interest in the European Union, and even less in the euro itself.
Since the turn of the century, the Italian economy has not grown on balance. Unemployment is above 10% and even triples among young people. A lack of perspective means that many Italian young people stay with their parents for a long time and the birth rate is very low; these indirect developments are also partly the result of Italy's imprisonment in the euro.
Depending on how precisely calculated, the Italian government debt amounts to approximately 160% of the total size of the Italian economy. This debt has continued to rise in recent years, despite very low interest rates. Private debts are not yet included in this, nor are the growing portfolios at Italian banks that are filled with bad (read: irrecoverable) loans.
Incidentally, it is certainly not Italy alone (and a few other southern European countries) that are questionable. This also applies to Germany, a country in the euro area that is considered very strong. Many Germans are about to retire, but hardly anyone realizes that hardly any savings have been made in Germany…
This letter is taken over from Hendrik Oude Nijhuis and he is often right.
See also this pdf file
http://www.warrenbuffett.nl/analyses/terug-naar-de-gulden.pdf
The money has long since been transferred from the north to the south.
Loans with no obligation to repay, or some hundred years in the future.
Loans bought up by the central bank, involving the writing off of Greece's debts.
Where does the money for those debts to be written off come from?
When a country no longer has to pay its debts, there is someone who will not get his money back.
The answer will probably be obvious.
Our brave leaders always tell us that debts are not written off, they only have to be paid back in 40-50 years. With a (manipulated) inflation of 2% you have nothing to do with it…..that's how it is in the EU.
@Ger Korat:
Greece's debt is about $353 billion. That is 181,6% of its GDP ($194,4 billion).
Italy's debt is about $2454 billion. That is 132,6% of its GDP ($1851 billion).
I am afraid that the ECB does not have the resources to reduce such a large debt to acceptable proportions.
To bring the debt to 100% of GDP, Greece needs $158,6 billion and Italy $603 billion. Almost 4x as much. To get it to 60% of GDP is $236,4 resp. $1343 needed. More than 5x more.
@janbeute:
Germany's GDP is about $3405 billion.
Italy's GDP is about $2454 billion.
Russia's GDP is about $1350 billion.
Sources:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/63-trillion-of-world-debt-in-one-visualization
@brabantman:
But in which currency should you open an account with the DBS?
In:
I too became suspicious when I noticed that the Baht outperformed the currencies of the other ASEAN countries from the beginning of March to the end of April. I saw no economic reason for this deviation, but that may be due to my limited knowledge of the financial and economic sector.
Yet another mistake.
@janbeute:
Germany's GDP is about $3405 billion.
Italy's GDP is about $1851 billion.
Russia's GDP is about $1350 billion.