As a temporary measure, Thailand follows the international trend to prevent infections from abroad as much as possible. You could almost shout hurray for a government that, unlike other countries, has acted forcefully and consistently in protecting its population against possible infections of the Covid-19 virus.
The fact that there are so few infections certainly has other causes, but that would lead us too far. We can even cover with the cloak of love that the rulers often overreact in protecting their inhabitants. All this as long as it is temporary and lasts until an effective vaccine is on the market. The hurray mood will diminish somewhat if the pandemic were to be used to further isolate the country in the future. In this context, plans are already circulating to direct the tourist flows and the residence of foreigners in Thailand in new and stricter directions. The wet dream of an elite with little knowledge of and interest in the needs of an important part of its population.
When millions of people depend on tourism for their livelihood, you cannot simply change direction or even simply suppress this branch of the economy. This would cause collective impoverishment and create much social unrest among the millions of unemployed. However, what you should expect from the aforementioned elite is some knowledge of economic laws. Especially for a country that depends on tourism for more than 20 percent of its GDP. The idea that a small group of wealthy tourists can compensate for the loss of income is once again proof that only the interests of a few large corporations are being defended. Even boosting domestic tourism is just a drop in the bucket. The many small entrepreneurs, the self-employed and unskilled workers who live off mass tourism are falling by the wayside.
In addition to restricting tourism, it is still difficult for foreigners to access the internal market in Thailand. Not only the high import duties, but also the many restrictions that make it difficult for a foreigner to start a business or to work, put a brake on foreign investments or the import of knowledge. It may also have its advantages, according to some. Thailand is for the Thais and is not sold out to foreign countries. What a Thai can do or make, you don't have to let a foreigner do. However, there is also a but. Today's world economy is so intertwined that protectionism and isolation have increasingly negative consequences for prosperity. And certainly also for Thailand, which has become largely dependent on foreign countries for its prosperity through export and tourism. As a result, the domestic market was considered less interesting. We therefore also regard the income from foreign tourism as export and not as domestic expenditure. So a field of tension has gradually grown between dependence on money from abroad and wanting to keep the boat away from foreign influence on an economic and social level.
Food Packs (Amonsak / Shutterstock.com)
Thailand has been prospering for years. Tourism boomed, the economy and exports performed very well. The Baht was suddenly the strongest Asian currency until the Corona crisis exposed that tension. And what now? Do those in power hope that everything will return to normal within acceptable times and without too much social unrest? Or do they want to become less dependent on tourism and exports? Do they want to ignore the money of the 'dirty foreigners'? With the last options, I fear that drastic reforms will be required in Thailand. After all, creating a large internal market requires wealthy consumers. And not just a few percent of the population. The wealth will therefore have to be redistributed among a much larger group of inhabitants. Wages and certainly minimum wages will have to rise, a social safety net will have to be formed to absorb the workers and entrepreneurs who depended on mass tourism. Additional jobs in various sectors besides tourism will also have to be created. Whether through government investments or through a series of measures that make entrepreneurship attractive. This also means that foreign investors should have easier access to the rigid Thai market.
The wealthy elite and in their wake today's rulers will have to be found willing to change the gun and radically reform society and the economy. It may be hoping for a miracle. In the last elections, the only opposition party in existence, with more than six million votes and a program of reform, was coldly outlawed. I'd be surprised if it's possible now. Rather, everything will remain the same. The elite will never surrender without coercion. The workers and peasants will grumble a bit, but in the best Buddhist tradition accept their fate and pray for better times. The students will protest but will not be heard. There, new laws on public order or even an extension of the state of emergency can offer solace. Hong Kong and China are good neighbors and even better teachers in that area.
And meanwhile, those in power benefit greatly from the continued reign of fear. Nothing better for internal peace than an external enemy. How long they can keep this up is hard to predict. The resilience of a population in difficult times can be very great. Until the spring breaks, of course. Or to end on a positive note, until the virus is gone and we can all go to Thailand again, without distinction. The country that once temporarily went into isolation.
Submitted by Peter
Yes indeed, Thailand faces enormous challenges, but so does the rest of the world of course.
Thailand will have an extra hard time due to the long 'lock down', the Thai are starting to make themselves heard through street protests last week in Bangkok and also in Chiang Mai.
The 'emergency decree' has now also been extended to August 31.
In addition, Thailand will be on the list of CURRENCY MANIPULATOR.
Source : https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1955687/thailand-taiwan-risk-entering-us-watchlist-for-currency-manipulation-ubs
Goodbye,
Moderator: Don't play the man. It's about the message, not the person.
I can agree with a lot but still stumbled on this quote: “The elite will never tack without coercion. The workers and peasants will grumble a bit, but in the best Buddhist tradition accept their fate and pray for better times. ”
Unfortunately, the fact that the elite are not afraid of intimidation and violence to the death is a sad fact. That the plebs accepted them? No. There are many examples of protests against local influential people, the authorities in Bangkok, etc. From protests in the early 20th century, the turbulent period leading up to 1932, the protests in 1973, 1976, 1992, the Assembly of the Poor in the 90s , the various times in this century. The citizens stand up for their lives when people from above oppress and squeeze them too far. It is also not a Buddhist value to 'accept and submit to your fate'. That's something the bigots are trying to tell the plebs to believe. In Buddhism it is precisely the intention to improve yourself, then you will gain more karma and then you will be reborn in the next life under improved circumstances.
Dear Rob v
That's called playing on superstition.
You can get 'prestige' from karma if you only have money ;)
Yours faithfully,
Erwin
It's surprising that the thai haven't hit the streets like 10 years ago. Many's prosperity has taken a serious hit and many have not much left to lose. By retaining the emergency decree, large-scale protests are stopped. Many already think back to the better times under thaksin. The soldiers now wear a tailored suit, but they remain soldiers and have no idea how to run the economy. Meanwhile, many outsiders with interests in Thailand are held hostage in and within Thailand
Even if Thailand opens its borders, you cannot ignore the fact that people do not wish to travel in these corona times. Saw a report on Nieuwsuur yesterday about Lloret de Mar, among others. Empty beaches with mainly people who had booked before the corona crisis broke out and who could not cancel and then left anyway. Young people who said that there was nothing to do as all discos were closed as well as most bars and hotels. In Mallorca, most cases are also closed, which means that the few opened cases are overwhelmed ... so that they are forced to close by order of the police. However you look at it, tourism has no chance of survival in these times. Closing borders is not a bad idea in that context.
Luke,
I'm not entirely convinced that people don't want to travel. My wife and I went to Vienna in Austria last weekend and the plane was 90% full. There were also quite a lot of people in the hotels as well as in the restaurants. I am convinced that when Thailand opens its borders there will be a lot of interest in returning to the land of smiles. I myself am impatiently waiting for the borders to open to visit this beautiful country and its people again.
The image of Spain is distorted. (I don't want to be found dead in Lloret de Mar either)
I live near Altea and Benidorm and in my village you have the famous waterfalls. Well attended everywhere But fortunately no longer that mass tourism because that is over and out for the time being!
But here too stricter measures, especially the mandatory face masks.
And I now see the rise of rural tourism, because the interior of Spain is incredibly beautiful and very varied..
I was in Thailand for three months and back just before the lockdown and have built up a lot of contacts. But what I do notice is "resignation"..
The word “resignation” is also not the right word.. rather acceptance..Take life as it is and take the time
Live and let live…
For many young women, the future is hopeless and suicide is unfortunately a tragic solution
But how friendly are the people and how hospitable are they!
I walked daily in a small town on the Moon River through a street with a few large houses but also small primitive houses where people were crouching on a fire cooking their food.
Always friendly greetings and even a man (squatting by his fire) offered me some rice.
But the resilience of the people also did me good. A woman in northern Isan had to stop selling her food at the market. But she sent pictures of masks she made from her daughter's old school clothes.
I think people are so busy surviving that they don't have time to protest.
And as for Buddhism: It belongs to the country, the tradition and the culture..
Lots to say about it but it's another topic.
As far as I'm concerned, one of the most positive things about Corona is that people have started to think about what they really want.
Does it make them happier to go and bake on the beach en masse?
I came across two kinds of falang
The first group is that sums up the streotype.. Beer drinking (especially English) chasing pleasure and total lack of interest for the culture.
But the other group ; they were open and curious people .. With respect for the traditions and values ... I met them in the temples , or just somewhere in the city . I met them on the bike.. Yes also an Englishman with luggage on the bike through the Isaan.
Please let these people come and give them a glimpse into the rich culture
And finally: The Englishman, The Dutchman and The Thai..they don't exist...
They are all individuals bound by common values, norms, expectations and goals.
And in Thai culture, that connection is still strong and vital
Can we learn something from it!
t that come..
Discos and cafes closed. Traveling is different from visiting discos and cafes in other countries!
bit short sighted.
Very good piece and very clearly written.
Good piece from Peter who emphasizes that the Thai restrictive measures for tourism also serve another purpose, dictated by the incumbent elite = those in power. The measures are not entirely consistent, as a result of which cheap foreign workers needed for projects in housing and road construction are insidiously excluded from the measures. This illustrates the double standards of the incumbent.
I do not believe in passively watching the population; the protests are bubbling like an underground volcano, the gaps in the strictly directed media are getting bigger and bigger.
Thailand is on the verge of major changes!
history has shown that after a lot of unemployment, a bad economy, social unrest arises
in other words revolution
I know it's not Thailand but there are many other countries that are still locked down. There too, people depend largely on tourism, but despite that they take it for granted.
The government itself is adored for this and of course the isolated location has great advantages in keeping the virus out. I myself will be in New Zealand from February 26 and on March 21 I could no longer travel home to Thailand.
I am anxiously waiting for the borders to open again, but at the moment there is no international air traffic from New Zealand either. Australia is also still locked down like many other countries.
Yet the Thai population also fears an infection, otherwise people would not have stayed away from the shopping centers and beaches en masse. After an Egyptian soldier was discovered with Covid-19.
Nice analysis! Interpreting the motivations of the Thai rulers is a challenge in itself, which keeps asking questions for many embassies and international institutions. There was still some stability under King Bhumipol, but that factor has disappeared. Who or what will fill the vacuum is indeed the question: the financial elites or the generals? In either case, not too much attention will be given to the world outside Thailand, and certainly not to the needs of the population, at least outside of Bangkok. Until bankruptcy threatens, the Baht falls, the country can no longer borrow on the international capital markets, and then IMF and World Bank are allowed to come along again..... The COVID situation plays into the hands of the current rulers, I do not expect Thailand to will become an attractive proposition for foreign investors for years to come, at least not those from outside ASEAN. Whether it will remain a pleasant country to live in (as a Westerner) is also very much the question: the rules do not make it any easier. The surrounding countries (particularly Malaysia, Vietnam and upcoming Myanmar) have also further developed their tourist products and can easily compete with Thailand. Everything is changeable, says the Buddha…..
I think this is an accurate description of what is going on in Thailand and have little to add, we are waiting to see where it will go, but it is true, sooner or later the jar will burst, I think late but it will happen . I live and the Thai people are murmuring around me.
Nice and extensive opinion piece with which you can agree or disagree or something in between of course.
Regarding Bangkok, I won't be the only one who hopes that the students will not sabotage the construction after the shutdown. Never done anything in society yourself, so it's a good time to put yourself on the map. You are young and you want something, but have they ever thought about the fact that there have been thousands of companies that have done everything they can to keep their staff on board and where employees have also relinquished some rights themselves because of the exceptional situation? the thought that they will come out of this battle stronger?
Weapons make the difference and even if they are used in Thailand, there will be a rebuke from abroad and after a year or so peace will be made again.
Thailand is like a systemic bank that must not collapse geopolitically and people know that all too well.
If they only choose China, which is not even strange because of the ethnic origin, many Western countries will become nervous and that is also a game that must be played. Arrogance is not always punished thanks to politics.
Apart from all this, with all the restrictions mentioned, there is an ordinary life for people who do not mind the political soap arena.
The soup (the news) is not always as hot as it is served.
I think it is very wise that Thailand keeps its borders closed to mass tourism for the time being.
We see in the world what happens when you fully allow free movement again.
Of course there are always other things involved with the Thai government, as with any government.
And of course the military protects their own position and that of the big money earners and the royalists.
But I also think that even this military-run government would rather see all Thais go back to work. That Thailand is economically healthy again. But they rightly choose not to expose the country to an all-destructive covid19.
“an all-destructive covid19.”
Taken too much media perhaps? Are there tens of millions of deaths to regret or is the number of deaths worldwide about the same as a strong flu wave, oh yes, the latter.
Covid is not a joke, but certainly not a disaster, it's just a virus like we've had so many before. Where the worldwide hysteria comes from and also yours as it turns out, is a mystery to me.
In Thailand, as many people die in traffic DAILY as all victims of the virus (you) together. Wake up
"Oh yeah that last one"? There are 650.000 flu deaths per year, without lockdowns. Now there are already 600.000 corona deaths in 7 months, with lockdowns.