Covid-19 and the Thai government: a successful approach
Fortunately, Charly's life is full of pleasant surprises (unfortunately sometimes also less pleasant ones). For several years now he has lived with his Thai wife Teoy in a resort not far from Udonthani. In his stories, Charly mainly tries to raise awareness of Udon, but he also discusses many other things in Thailand.
In times of crisis, governments take on even more power than they already have. Understandable in itself, but it does have dark sides.
In the Netherlands, fighting the virus is the number one priority. The restart of the economy clearly follows in second place. As a result, the Netherlands is facing an unprecedentedly high budget deficit. Where in the recent past no money could be made available to substantially increase the salaries of teachers, police and nurses, for example, 92 billion euros is now effortlessly being allocated to keep companies afloat. In between, the minister of finance has announced that cuts will probably be made again as soon as covid-19 appears to have been contained. I don't know where he wants to make those cuts with an unprecedented level of unemployment and an improbable number of bankruptcies. In any case, will not be with the business community, but probably with the “heroes” of the moment.
The Thai government has taken a successful approach to fighting covid-19. The Thai government's priority is clearly to level off and possibly stop the covid19 drama completely. And they seem to succeed particularly well when we look at their numbers. The financial well-being of the Thai population is of less importance, it seems.
Declaring a state of emergency is not a strange measure in itself. Not allowing incoming commercial flights is a wise decision, one that Rutte should take as an example. Banning all kinds of events where large numbers of spectators can be expected, such as boxing matches, is also understandable. Just like the social distancing that is now applied worldwide, or the one and a half meter economy, and regular hand washing.
I am now writing Tuesday evening, April 28. Apart from the national measures described above, the Thai government has decided that it is time to leave the slow release of all kinds of measures during the lockdown to regional administrators. There is a lot to be said for this, because the situation can differ considerably per province. Unfortunately, most regional administrators are not capable enough to deal with this matter adequately. So much more guidelines/advice from the central government would be appropriate here.
For example, the municipal council of Udon seems unable to take a common position on what is and what is not allowed from Friday 01 May. Great ambiguity as a result for many entrepreneurs and their staff. Many come from villages in the Isaan. And just have to see how they get back to Udon in time as soon as it is clear that their business can open again. There are also four public holidays planned in May. Friday 01 May is Labor Day, Monday 04 May Corona Day, Wednesday 06 May Visakha Bucha Day and on 11 May Royal Plowing Day. The first three holidays are registered as national holidays.
The national government has decided that those four holidays will not be postponed, as has been proposed here and there, but will simply be maintained. Of course that's easy for Prayut to say, but the employees don't get paid for these days off. And Prayut is not going to compensate for that.
I believe a total of 54 deaths have now been registered with the statement "covid19". That number, plus the very low number of daily recorded covid19 infections, seems to make a state of emergency completely unnecessary. Or would the Thai government also know that the actual numbers are many times higher? In any case, the uncertainty about what is or is not allowed in each province from May 01 is unpalatable for the Thai population. The poorest of the poorest of the Thai are eager to get back to work, to earn some money again.
They have now sold everything that is eligible for sale, such as clothing on the internet / line for prices of 5-10 baht each. For food and drink they popped at the local shopkeeper. The loansharks benefit from it. They must meet the needs for instant cash for buying food and water. They are happy to do so, but at exorbitant interest rates. But here comes help. The Thai government has announced that it will limit these usurious rates. How? They just don't know that yet.
Now that we're on the subject of money. Prayut and his people announced with great fanfare some time ago that the Thai people can count on this government. At least 5.000 baht per month would be paid to entrepreneurs who were forced to temporarily close their business for a period of three months. The Thai government has "a little" misjudged the number of applications that could be expected. Which has led to two inexplicable effects. First of all, a large number of applications were rejected as “ineligible” for obscure reasons, after many took more than a day's work to get to the application site in the first place. Secondly, the Thai government had to admit that there is not enough money to pay out the second and third months pledged.
It is now Thursday morning, April 30. Last night, the Thai government announced by decree that the lockdown, as it was in the month of April, will continue to apply to the entire country until the end of May. So no provincial administrators who are allowed to ease measures for their province, as the Thai government promised at the beginning of this week. Gone are the hopes of many Thai workers to be able to get back to work from next week. The window (loop-hole) to allow the sale of alcoholic beverages on May 1 and 2 has also been postponed until further notice.
Reason for this change of course? The Thai government is afraid of a second covid19 wave. What do you mean? In recent days, the number of new cases of covid-19 infections has remained below ten. The numbers were extremely positive for that as well. What are you waiting for? Until there are no new victims to report at all? Or did the Japanese situation on an island of five million people play a role in the Thai government's latest change of course? There, the lockdown was completely released around March 19, but there is now a large increase in the number of covid19 victims. So a second covid19 wave.
The confusion is great. Still Thursday, April 30, but now around 19.00 p.m. The Khaosod, English version, reports that a number of measures will be eased from Sunday 3 May. Local politicians can decide to what extent they want to go along with this. That is less than eight hours after the publication in the Royal Gazet of the previous government measure.
Taken verbatim from the Khaosod, Thursday evening, April 30, quote:
"BANGKOK — A number of business venues will be allowed to reopen beginning this Sunday, the government announced Thursday.
Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesperson of the Center for the COVID-19 Situation Administration, said the businesses may be closed or suspended again if the number of coronavirus infections surge back; Thailand saw a single-digit increase in new cases again for the fourth consecutive day.
“If there are surges in the number of new cases in the next 14 days, we may need to review them,” Taweesin said. “It's not only the duties of the public or private sectors, but it's the responsibility of everyone.”
Read: Restaurants, Salons, and Parks To Reopen, But No Date Fixed
Venues set for reopening include markets, restaurants and street food vendors outside shopping malls, supermarkets, grocery stores, sports complexes, public parks, beauty salons, and pet shops.
The measure will be effective May 3. The ban on alcohol sales will remain in place. He said provincial governors are allowed to adjust the measures accordingly in their province, but their restrictions must be either on par or more intense than the measures outlined by the government. All of the reopened venues must also strictly adhere to social distancing and hygiene measures, he added.” End quote.
The volatility of the Thai government is unprecedented. Just yesterday it was reported that the alcohol ban will remain in force for the time being, until further notice, and that the window of May 1 and 2 has also been cancelled. Today it was announced that the sale of alcoholic beverages will be allowed again from Sunday 3 May. No deviating measures have been announced by the Udon municipal council, so I assume that the national government measures will also be applied in Udon.
Looking back at this article, it is now August 16, so a lot further in time, a few things have changed. The Thai government continues to allow people from outside Thailand only in dribs and drabs. Distressing conditions of non-Thai pensioners who live here in Thailand with wives and children will not enter Thailand for the time being, unless they are lucky enough to fall into a category that is welcome. The Thai government seems to have succeeded in keeping the covid19 virus at bay, but at the same time the economic development is a major drama. Tourists are no longer expected this year. Factories and suppliers are seeing a steadily falling demand, which means that students, for example, can no longer get internships.
An update on the current situation in Udon Thani.
All restaurants, with the possibility to serve alcoholic drinks, are now fully open again, and all bars and massage parlors are back in business. Only the discos are still closed. But unfortunately, there appear to be few customers. A tour of soi sampan and the surrounding area shows that it really is doom and gloom everywhere. Restaurants, but also hotels, run on a minimized crew. The Pannarai hotel, normally a well-occupied hotel, operates with a minimal staff and offers room offers at very discounted prices. Current offer: one night for 999 baht and an additional night for 2 baht. Brick House is also affected by the crisis. Staff has already been shortened quite a bit. In order to reduce personnel costs.
A new attempt to find turnover is the introduction of a quiz night. Every last Friday of the month there is a quiz night in Brick House. A desperate attempt to save what can be saved.
Bars are the biggest casualties. A bar like Fun Bar hardly gets any visitors. The result is that a number of girls drop out and go back to relatives in one of the neighboring villages. The same problem, but to a slightly lesser extent, affects the massage parlours. Restaurants, bars and massage parlors with many regular customers have the best chance of survival. There is no hope for the high season, from November to March. By the way, Udon Thani has not been delighted with many tourists in recent years. So this year will be no different. Businesses that want to sell their business are in a very unfavorable time. Everyone knows, even the Thai, how bad the business is, so sales will only succeed with significantly dumped prices.
The question then is: is the Thai government doing well in virtually eradicating covid19 but with the loss of a lot of economic activity?
Please your opinion.
A very old message, I think with quotes from events in April 2020. Mustard after meals.
It is now August.
“Looking back on this article, it is now August 16, so a lot further in time,…. etc"
Apparently I didn't read the entire article, which I thought was informative.
Thai Statistics are unreliable and manipulated (even more so than other covid19 statistics that already excel in manipulation and lack of context… death with, death by covid?, selective testing, etc).
The Corona event is completely exaggerated and out of perspective. Right from the start actually. Guess.
The Thai government seems intent on burying tourism with no expression of compassion for the many victims to come. Borders closed to foreigners. Economic and mental consequences of covid19 will be many times worse than the common influenza-like virus itself (I wouldn't be surprised if it was accidentally released in gain-of-function virus studies, too many connections to Wuhan there). It ain't Ebola folks. Globally driven (by media) hysteria with the same terms over and over and with approval from governments. Unseen in modern previous pandemics.
Second wave… uhuh, this is not going away. And remember that vaccination for Influenza also only works out 50 % and does not get the attention it has deserved for years, given the many annual deaths.
World gone insane.
Nice all those conspiracy theories, but what do you think is the underlying idea? There is no benefit to this government by destroying its own economy and turning its own citizens against the government, but maybe you have a good explanation for that. I am very curious what you think is the explanation for this, and how you see it Patrick.
Kind regards, Bart.
It's a pity that Patrick doesn't respond, but he probably doesn't have a good explanation for my question why this government is killing its own economy if this corona epidemic is just a simple flu.
I think he didn't respond because you immediately brought up the word conspiracy theory.
By doing so you don't take the other party seriously and you immediately label him as some kind of fool. A conspiracy is nothing more or less than cooking up evil things in secret, and unfortunately such things happen every day.
I don't know what reasons the governments have to flatten a country and destroy the entire economy, and as a member of the bastard people I shouldn't know either.
I wouldn't know what's wrong with Patrick's vision, but hey, I'm a conspiracy theorist 🙂 Time will tell us what happens, but a good conspiracy never comes to fruition, we'll see.
Are the Dutch figures correct? Really don't know what to believe anymore, it's just simmering here and may enter another phase with more restrictions in the near future. Thailand has opted for a different model for combating it. Can say that they are at least almost Corona free. Here in the Netherlands it will not work on this basis and we will continue to struggle. The economic damage here is also enormous, many companies will go bankrupt in the near future.
Thailand has no other model because it does exactly the same as what most other countries do, namely face mask, distance, washing hands, has nothing to do with the Thai measures because they are the same as what people do elsewhere. Other countries are doing better than Thailand: look at Vietnam with a considerably larger population and far fewer victims, or look at Cambodia also less. The economic damage caused by the flexible measures in the Netherlands has resulted in the limited decline of the economy in the Netherlands and is therefore one of the better in Europe. There will be no cutbacks in the Netherlands and the debt will be paid off in decades and the Dutch economy is at a numerical level of a few years ago, well then we had it just as well as now and next year growth is expected where this year's loss will be made up, the damage in the Netherlands is limited. The economic damage in Thailand is great because millions have no income because, after all, no work, in the Netherlands you are guaranteed a Euro or 1100 in case of unemployment, assistance or pension entitlement, in Thailand those amounts are at bina 0 for most self-employed people and for employees after a few months benefit falling to 0 and a pension of 500 to 1000 baht. And unemployment in the Netherlands is rising by only a few percent and that is not real unemployment because there are many vacancies and hundreds of thousands of foreigners are working in many sectors such as agriculture and horticulture, industry and more.
Thailand is not an island. Thailand has land borders where not even a river (with or without water…) runs and in the deep south that border is a war zone. Residents of the border areas cross the border as needed, probably without a mouthpiece. Corona enters Thailand unhindered there.
Corona enters the Netherlands unimpeded. The land borders are 1.027 km and since Schengen there is free movement. That border doesn't keep you tight with the entire national police, so restricting air traffic in NL is something that can help, but it doesn't close the country.
Thailand stops air traffic and it will make some sense, but it's not all that great. Unfortunately, those 14 days of quarantine have already shown holes. I hope Thailand escapes the second wave and if not I wouldn't be surprised if corona deaths are pushed to malaria and dengue. Paper is patient, you know…..
It's fairly simple. If you test a lot, then many infections. If you test little, then few infections. In my girlfriend's village, 4 people died in a short time. No one is tested. So no corona.
Why test the dead? Dead is dead, corona or not. By the way, I believe that Thailand has few corona deaths. Otherwise, many more people would have to die in big cities such as Bangkok, Pattaya and others and you don't hear or see anything about that. And believe me, the fanfare is growing fast in Thailand. And by the way, how interested the rich are that many are going hungry. They will not want for anything. By the way, I don't believe in that corona nonsense. I still don't know anyone who has or has had it. A normal flu, people die from it every year.
Hit the nail on the head Peter! And then you can make a good impression with very few deaths or, as Laos does it, ZERO deaths. Like: look at us, us with our healthcare! And people don't lie because if you don't test then you have nothing to lie about.
Why isn't it punched through? I don't have the answer.
It's not that simple, Peter. It doesn't depend on how much you test but who you test. Just random? People with complaints? Deceased? People without complaints but with contact with a Covid-19 case? If what you say is true then the Spanish flu never existed and I have never seen an influenza patient.
Many tests in an area with few infections: little corona. Few tests in an area with a lot of corona: many infections. All as a percentage of the number of tests, that is what matters, not the totality.
If no one is tested, a doctor can still diagnose corona. Whether or not he actually does is another story.
In April-May there were relatively few tests and many infections, now more testing is being done and there are fewer infections.
Well, it's pretty simple Tino. In my friend's village, a number of young people were quite sick with the flu, which also infected each other. No one has been tested, then 4 elderly people die in two to three weeks. It's a small village, so the tam-tam goes hard (bad-luck, angry ghost). Those elderly people have not been tested either.
Relatives come over from Bangkok every week, who work in factories where distancing is not possible. In the village no one walks with a face mask or keeps their distance. There are really more corona deaths in Thailand than the figures show.
I don't believe I can post a link here, but somewhat official figures (Ministry of public health) say that there are 3.328 confirmed infections and 381.770 suspected cases (so: people with symptoms). The latter figure gives a good indication of how many have actually been detected; Not testing keeps this out of the figures. This puts Thailand among the world leaders, comparable to the USA and Europe.
Maybe it's better to keep the country closed.
Of course one can always talk about the negative consequences of policy, but on the other hand there are positive consequences for other groups, but that is not often discussed. Progress is the norm for many, but that is utopia because that is always at the expense of someone else and then we end up in a vicious circle.
For example, I understand the students' call for change, but no one is a discussion partner because there are no real leaders, so that will not be the case either, and what will you achieve with it at a time when the MBK is licking its wounds and the staff trying to get on top.
Go and spend money on MBK every day instead of companies affiliated with the biggest players and part of the elite.
Only when Thailand announces the death figures of the past few months and/or the past year can we find out how many people have died from COVID-19.
By subtracting the historical average from the total number of deaths.
The Economist has written about this in a number of articles.
Among other things: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries
For BE, it seems that between 23-03 and 07-06 (almost) all people who died of COVID-19 were also officially registered as such.
For NL I conclude from this article that between 16-03 and 19-07 about 1½ times more people died of COVID-19 than officially registered. I note that people have also died because they could not be helped in time due to the overload of the hospitals. This is especially true in Italy when there was a glaring shortage of ICU beds.
For Italy, therefore, I would say that between 26/02 and 26/05, about 1¼ times more people died from COVID-19 than officially recorded.
I think such a story applies to the actual number of people infected with COVID-19 (BE: 1x, NL: 1½x, IT: 1¼x).
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6