Maarten Vasbinder lives in Isaan. His profession is general practitioner, a profession that he mainly practiced in Spain. On Thailandblog he answers questions from readers who live in Thailand.
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Dear Martin,
A question about health, but not about mine, he has to find out for himself what he wants. A question about the corona and the pandemic. I've been wondering for a while why there are 'waves' in a pandemic. I've looked on the internet, but couldn't find anything about it.
Since those waves were predicted at the beginning of the epidemic, it does not seem to me that they are caused by human actions such as lockdown. So it seems to be something that belongs to an epidemic, but you would actually expect a virus to keep multiplying exponentially, until everyone is dead or immune. But given that there are waves, it seems that the virus is taking a break.
That makes sense in a war, because if the front soldiers fall asleep during a battle, you won't win the battle. But a virus has a continuous supply of new virus – fresh soldiers – from infected people, so it doesn't have to take breaks.
Do you know what causes those pauses and given that there are waves, those pauses are apparently coordinated?
Regards,
R.
*****
Dear R,
No one can answer the question. Many deny the existence of those waves and say it is a metaphor. If we do assume those waves, there are many explanations:
- The first wave hits the most vulnerable, who then stay at home of their own accord. In the second wave, others become "less" sick, often because the virus has also mutated. The first victims are then cross-resistant, something that cannot be achieved with vaccination.
- Many viruses are seasonal, for example come back annually or every six months and slowly die out. Flu, corona, RS viruses -etc.
- Unlimited exponential growth in the number of infections is impossible, because those who are already infected cannot become infected again.
Moreover, most people move in a small circle. The more of those circles become immune, the slower the spread will be.
It's different when there's a vector like a mosquito or a flea. However, the plague also died out when the "black" rats were dead. Pneumonic plague is contagious from person to person, but can be easily contained.
In that period they knew better how to deal with an epidemic than they do now. Fortunately Covid is not really dangerous.
Sincerely,
Dr. Maarten