Flood impact continues in 2012
The floods will only have a limited impact on economic growth this year, but damage to farmland and property could weigh heavily on Thailand's economy next year, economists expect.
The current floods are the most serious in 50 years. Although mainly crops have been damaged, the flooding in Ayutthaya this week led to factory closures. As a result, manufacturing and exports will be affected in the coming months.
Damage estimates vary widely. The Bank or Thailand (BoT) estimates the damage at 20 billion baht; the university of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) at 130 billion baht.
Prasarn Trairatvorakul, governor of the BoT, notes that the damage of 20 billion this year is slightly less than last year. The damage is mainly limited to the central region, while the Northeast was largely spared.
Prasarn has asked the commercial banks to help duped customers by easing installment plans, lowering the minimum payment on credit cards and offering debt restructuring if necessary.
Somchai Jitsuchon, an economist at the Thailand Research Development Institute, thinks the harvest will not decrease significantly. The impact of the floods will mainly be felt in 2012 and beyond on household properties. He points out that agriculture's contribution to gross domestic product is small, but the floods will have a heavy impact on household consumption.
The UTCC has lowered its growth forecast for this year from 4 to 4,5 percent to 3,6 percent. Since July, the floods have caused damage of 104 billion baht (0,8 to 1 percent of GDP); the floods in the South in April and May cost another 20 billion baht or 0,2 to 0,3 percentage points of GDP.
The agricultural sector was hardest hit with estimated losses of 54,9 billion baht, followed by industrial, tourism and trade losses of 36,3 billion baht. Property and infrastructure have also been damaged.
The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that 6 million rai worth of farmland has been damaged, resulting in the loss of 3,5 to 4 million tons of rice. In total, the rice industry has suffered a loss of 43 billion baht, including losses due to premature harvesting.
And then the many missing and damaged cars, mopeds and luxury items that come with
purchased a loan from the bank and also, in particular, homes
with a mortgage, often still under construction. and can't be now
relieved. That must be a huge loss for the banks
yield?
Does anyone know how the banks in Thailand are doing after the
global credit crisis?
One more question, Transferring money to Thailand is easy enough.
Return too?
Gerrit