Face mask or not?
Is it wise or not to use a mouth mask in this time with the corona virus? The WHO advises against it if you are not sick (without giving a definition of sick). Unfortunately, the WHO does not excel in giving reliable advice. It is a political organization in which not exactly the best qualified people are in charge. Unfortunately.
Furthermore, some governments recommend wearing masks and others do not. And in the USA they are considering changing the existing advice not to use them to wearing them. The following chart suggests that the countries that have followed WHO's advice are having the worst results. So why not use those masks as our "caring" Thai government recommends?
In order to arrive at a well-considered judgment, you must of course have some useful information at your disposal:
An N95 mask must stop 95% of particles with a particle size of 0.3 micrometers (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NIOSH_air_filtration_rating). In practice, they stop particles with a different size (even if they are smaller! ) even better, including coronavirus particles that are 0.1 micrometers in size. The mouth masks that are manufactured for us by a second cousin for free will stop few of those minute virus particles, so you could conclude that they are ineffective. However, this is not necessary because the virus particles expelled by infected persons through coughing, sneezing and/or talking are packed in saliva droplets that are more than 5 micrometres in size (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respiratory_droplet). Now those saliva droplets dry out rapidly, but even if they lose say 98% of their mass, they are still at least 1.3 micrometers in size. And possibly such a simple mask of my grandniece also stops a reasonable part of that, because although a cotton cloth often has openings of 20 micrometers, applied in a few layers, a mouth mask made of cotton could still stop a lot. Moreover, cotton easily absorbs moisture (and therefore also playful droplets) as everyone knows who was left with a wet handkerchief after sneezing in it.
Incidentally, you should of course not use an N95 mask as long as there are still shortages in the medical world.
Another advantage of such a simple mask (already mentioned many times on Thailandblog) is that you don't easily touch your face with your fingers. So my advice is: use it anyway because who knows, they might help. But when? In the open air seems to me greatly exaggerated because the wind causes a strong dilution (with the exception of course if you end up in a crowd of people). Especially during the day it is almost nonsense to use them because UV light also kills viruses. I would say do it anyway because other people may be annoyed by your behavior. And wouldn't even a stubborn Dutchman want that?
In a shopping center with an air-conditioning system, the dilution is relatively low and it seems wise to wear a mask there. Fortunately, this is also happening on a large scale in Thailand. Last Wednesday, at least 98% of visitors to Tesco Lotus in Ubon wore a mask (farangs were of course overrepresented among the non-wearers while they are simply for sale there). It is even wiser to visit shops without air conditioning, but simply with the doors and windows open, as our Dr. Maarten advises.
There are probably readers who can provide an expert comment on the above, because I myself am of course only a layman in this field.
I also have a question for readers who are experts in the matter. I assume that with a flu and possibly also with a coronavirus you will only become seriously ill - depending of course on various other factors - if you come into contact with a lot of viruses. And that you will only show mild symptoms if you come into contact with few viruses, will not show any symptoms of disease, but will build up immunity if you come into contact with very few and will not become ill, but will also not build up immunity if you only deal with one virus particle comes into contact. I've never read anything about this in the past, although I did find more or less confirmation of that assumption recently in an article in Nature Reviews. Immunology: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3899649/
That article reads, among other things, the following: “Minimal doses may be controlled subclinically by innate defenses and may be insufficient to induce adaptive immune responses. Massive doses can overwhelm immune defenses and cause severe disease and rapid death, in some instances by direct cytotoxic effects of viral components. Doses between these extremes can have a variable outcome from undetectable infection to tissue-damaging lesions.".
Who can say something sensible about this? It seems important because it would mean that you don't have to worry about a few coronaviruses (so don't stay at home all day!), but that you should of course be careful in situations where the risk of infection is high. In the latter case, a simple mouth mask may be just enough to prevent you from becoming (very) ill. Another consequence is that we don't have to fear those few sick and temporarily unemployed workers who return from Bangkok to Isaan because most people there live in houses that are cracked on all sides. Especially when you consider that people in the Isaan also often stay outside where the UV light quickly renders viruses harmless, concern about the possible consequences is probably greatly exaggerated. At least I'm not worried about Covid-19 here in the Isaan countryside.
Even more effective than wearing a mouth mask is of course losing weight. A doctor recently said how striking it was that patients in ICU all had the same stature.
Advice: exercise!
“Experts advise people who exercise little to exercise more during quarantine – for example cycling, walking, working in the garden or aerobics – but don't overdo it.
Others are advised to maintain the exercise regime their bodies are used to in order to minimize the risk of coronavirus infection.”
See https://wibnet.nl/geneeskunde/ziektes/zo-beschermt-sporten-je-tegen-het-coronavirus?c_rid=63zc0rh90205ii6oaAP41807444535%7C86929567&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nb_ill_nl_tor_uge14_2020-%28867046%29&utm_content=&utm_source=wibnet.nl&email=E42C9980D1458BDEA9D30BAEA45F9FA3C7033F8F716B686147D40398DBABAA05&utm_term=ziektes
Thank you Hans,
Fortunately, you do not cause panic, as many others, including almost all "dignitaries" and politicians, do. They also have to rely on less good advisers.
As far as masks are concerned, only good masks make sense and they are heavily priced. Many of the cheap masks are bad copies. Surgical masks actually do very little, because the air can pass through them on all sides. Moreover, you have to replace them regularly. As far as doorknobs and the like, the danger of getting Covid-19 from that is slightly greater than getting pregnant from a toilet seat.
The more virus someone ingests, the greater the chance of illness. That is not only logical, it has also been proven. This means that the risk of infection is highest in closed spaces such as hospitals, quarantine accommodations, department stores, etc. It is not safe at home either, in case someone comes in with the virus.
It is therefore downright absurd when people are not allowed to go outside to get some fresh air. The beach with its perpetual wind also seems to be a safe place.
The “anti-social distance” is a laboratory outcome and actually applies mainly indoors and in crowds outdoors. The corona spat champion has now exceeded 3 m.
There is indeed a good possibility of becoming infected through hands and other body parts.
For now, the total number of deaths so far in 2020 is lower than in many previous years. Those figures are simply on the internet, but the governments can't seem to find them.
Unfortunately, we now have to make do with the very bad belts that are assigned to us. Test kits were made in Luxembourg that were contaminated with… the corona virus. Luckily discovered before delivery.
Nevertheless, we will have to follow the authorities for a while, until it is clearly proven that the solution is more serious than the disease. Won't be the first time though. In addition to the “Intelligence Militaire” an even lower form of intelligence has now emerged: “Intelligence Politique”
For the readers who are shocked by this message:
SARS-CoV2 is a highly contagious virus and therefore causes many illnesses in a short time. It is very understandable that people are afraid of this, especially if that fear is once again fed by authorities and the press. Good intentions can play a role in government. I wouldn't rule that out during this pandemic of incompetence. I don't believe the press has good intentions. It is only out for sensation and has made the news since CNN started doing so in 1980.
The figures show, even if it should not be said, that an average flu has just as many or more victims as this Corona virus. Of course, any victim is one too many.
The figures produced by the press are often demonstrably false and placed in the sensational context.
That doesn't mean we shouldn't take the situation seriously. However, there is no reason to panic about the virus.
I can better imagine that there is panic because of the collateral damage of the approach by the authorities.
Unfortunately, we can't go back on the road we've started, the end of which should already be in sight.
This should be a good training ground for all those government agencies that don't have their affairs in order.
Let's hope they don't make an even bigger mess of it.
“Jede Konsequenz führt zum Teufel”. Goethe already knew.
Fortunately, there will be a vaccine sooner than people thought. Hydroxychloroquine in combination with Azithromycin also seems to give excellent results. We will know for sure within a few weeks, when the results from New York become known.
Do not go and buy all these resources, but let them be used by the seriously ill in the hospital.
Some figures from the UK for those interested. Elsewhere the situation is not much different, despite the many Indian stories.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-all-cause-mortality-surveillance-2019-to-2020
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emergency-department-weekly-bulletins-for-2020
Thank you Maarten for your detailed comment.
Thanks Maarten. I am very happy with someone who a. has a demonstrable understanding of business and b. calmly keeps both feet on the ground and simply has the facts straight and also demonstrates this convincingly.
Keep it up, I'm all behind you.
For enthusiasts with some time (but I don't think the latter is such a problem at the moment) a fascinating article by drs. Maurice de Hond, an expert, with many links to scientific articles, also by experts. https://www.maurice.nl/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Lockdown-light.pdf.
I'm not saying anything at all, in other forums I got buckets of shit over me, you just don't want to know. I don't know why people react like that, fodder for psychologists. Sometimes I feel that people only WANT to hear bad news. Well, I'm already saying too much.
But keep it up!
Not a point of discussion here in Thailand at all, lots of places are already mandatory, and big c you can only enter if you wear a mouth mask, your temperature is good and your hands are disinfected. The same with the banks.
Everything inspired by ministers, who, apart from filling their pockets, have no idea at all, and by the mass hysteria fueling news reports on television stations, which only respond to sensation.
I was of the opinion that the widespread wearing of mouth masks hardly affects the risk of infection of people outside the medical care sector.
I've since changed my mind. Measures such as keeping your distance, staying at home as much as possible and washing your hands are much more important, but wearing good mouth masks probably also helps if you have to mingle with people. But only if you're not constantly fidgeting with your mask and then rubbing your eyes or picking your nose.
The graph you posted above, Hans, gives a certain indication, although you should also bear in mind that those 'mask countries' also took other strict measures and China is of course not in the 'no mask' countries.
Good point Tino, I agree. But as long as there are still shortages? I work in a branch that also sells FFP2 and FFP3 masks, latex gloves, protective clothing and other materials for people who work with fine dust, hazardous fumes, etc. We can hardly buy these from our suppliers anymore. What we had has been taken off the shelves, a grab stock in reserve and the rest has been donated to hospitals. The agreement is that if we can buy something, we will ensure that it first reaches hospitals as long as the need is high there. We only put it back on the market when it can be justified. My employer has exactly the same idea as I do. Don't sell to everyone or the highest bidder, but (donate!) where society needs the stuff now.
That's why I don't wear a face mask (yet?).
Tino, I agree with you (also) about your comment on the graph. That's why I added that it suggests something, not that it proves anything.
Yes, a statistical relationship does not have to be a causal, causal relationship.
Dag,
I have noticed that many Thais wear a mask, and I have noticed that they think it is cool if I wear one too. Thumbs up. For that reason alone, I wear one (a cool one, that is). We Dutch can adapt. Do not respond to people/people who have difficulty with this. They seem to exist too, I'm told, but probably.
This Is Thailand, and the Thais wear one, so I do too. That virus particles are too small, and laugh at the mask a bit (not quite), will then be fine. I like to keep my distance anyway.
Oean Eng.
Okay, the English description is especially important for making an anti-serum. You want an amount of weak virus that triggers enough immunity actions in the body. That is also one of the reasons why making such a serum takes so much time. the fine adjustment of the right amount of active corona infection particles and their strength (weakness) is crucial with an anti-serum. This is all less interesting for masks. A mask is mainly intended to protect others if you are infected yourself. No mask is 100 percent capable of this, simply because in addition to the mask, other forms of transmission can also take place. A mask is mainly a good thing for people who have not yet been infected. tool to think about what they do and what they need to pay attention to when in contact with others and objects that others have touched. Don't worry too much about it. Just put one on and wash your hands before you touch your face and then lol.
Pleasure and health.
We just do it and wear a face mask when we walk around our complex and on the street. The following are some of our reasons:
1. the Thai think it works and we are in Thailand
2. we don't know, but think it helps and the chart seems to give us a little bit of the right
3. it does no good, it does no harm,
4. Out of courtesy to others who certainly believe in it
The graph seems to say that there is a positive effect.
So, Farang colleagues, just do it, then everyone will be happy and we won't be judged for not wearing a cap.
Very dangerous if lay people start giving advice on these kinds of matters and call WHO unreliable). The graph shown really doesn't indicate anything. You could make the same graph and say that in countries where people eat more potatoes, there are also more infections.
You have to be careful when drawing conclusions based on such a graph, a static correlation does not yet prove a connection. It is also possible that in countries where masks are mandatory, other measures (lockdown, social distancing and the like) also play a role and have a much greater effect. It could well be that a hospital mask helps if you sneeze or cough and thus infect others less quickly. Not everyone is so polite as to stay far away from others if you are sick yourself. And not everyone will cough or sneeze into a handkerchief or shoulder, but still into their hand or out in the open. So maybe you can make a small profit there. The question is to what extent keeping a good distance does not already help here. After all, wearing the same maker all day long does not help and incorrect use can even be counterproductive.
Should you still wear a mask? Maybe in certain situations. When you know that you come close to others and can thus infect others. But then again... as long as hospitals indicate a shortage of surgical masks and FFP2 (N95) and FFP3 (N99) masks and other protective equipment (facemasks), it is better to donate your stock of masks, face shields and the like to healthcare personnel. If they indicate that they have sufficient resources, ordinary citizens could also wear these as additional preventive measures. But that is my opinion.
As far as Thailand is concerned, I maintain that the government is making mistakes: it does not explain that such a disposable tissue for the mouth does NOT protect you against contracting the virus. That goes through the fabric, it is not explained that you also have to properly shield your face (eyes). That if you want to protect yourself properly, your mouth, eyes and nose must be sealed in a vacuum so that nothing enters that has not passed through a very fine filter. In practice, those good FFP2/N95 masks do not always close 100% to the skin. That you are not protected with a disposable mask and you have to keep your distance, wash your hands and so on. We now see some measures such as a chair or 1-2 spaces between people in public transport, but if people then stand on top of each other like penguins going down the escalator... then people apparently do not realize that the masks do not help prevent the virus.
I understand the advice of the WHO, Red Cross, RIVM, doctors, etc. so it's very good that people call on people not to stock up on masks.
But of course I am open to adjusting my views if the facts turn out to be different. I'm not going to immediately get angry at people who shout in annoyance that not wearing a mask is bad and 'gives us farangs a bad name' or that we should just fuck off if we don't want to keep in line with what the Thai authorities are saying. .
In summary: wearing only a simple cloth over the mouth seems to me to have no effect and as long as materials are scarce I prefer to see those resources used with people who have to deal intensively and unavoidably with patients, after which the rest of the population can join in.
A clear video interview with a doctor from Korea about Covid-19:
https://youtu.be/gAk7aX5hksU
Finally, the arguments for not wearing a (cheap) mask and why other measures (social distancing, washing hands, etc.) are more important:
Red Cross:
“Does it make sense to wear a face mask?
The RIVM only recommends face masks for medical personnel. Face masks only help if you use them correctly. In fact, if you use a face mask incorrectly, you run the risk of becoming infected.”
- https://www.rodekruis.nl/nieuwsbericht/tips-om-risico-op-besmetting-en-verspreiding-coronavirus-te-verkleinen/
WHO:
“If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.”
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks
A doctor in an interview with VK:
“Is it wise to wear a face mask in an infected area, such as the north of Italy?
'If you asked me if I would wear a face mask if I had a symposium in Milan, the answer would be: no. The only useful thing about wearing it is that you are less likely to touch your face. Ultimately, the best way to protect yourself is to wash your hands regularly and to better disinfect surfaces that you use often, such as a keyboard or telephone.”
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/het-mondkapje-als-wapen-tegen-het-coronavirus-dat-is-eigenlijk-zinloos~b7181f82/
A virologist in the AD: “It is a false sense of security.” The only advantage the mask has is to create awareness, says the virologist. “You are less likely to touch your face.” (…) But these are the same protective masks that surgeons wear in operating rooms. Are they nonsense?
They are indeed the same masks, says Knoester, but they serve a different purpose. “They protect the surgeon from splashing blood. They therefore do not protect OR staff against a (corona) virus that the patient may be carrying.” Citizens who wear a mask as a precaution are therefore of no use. A cap can still be useful for patients. “This prevents an infected person from spraying a large amount of snot into space. The droplets of a sneeze can travel up to a meter without a mask.”
- https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/mondkapjes-zijn-niet-aan-te-slepen-maar-werken-ze-eigenlijk-wel~a06fe417/
That's exactly what I'm wondering. Since the beginning of the corona crisis, it has been claimed that those face masks can have a counterproductive effect if you use them incorrectly and you can get infected as a result. But how exactly does that happen? It is simply claimed here than in some cases, so the chance is greater to get corona with a face mask than without. That is so illogical.
Probably things like touching your mask (virus on your fingers), reuse, wearing it for too long, etc.?
Very relevant comment regarding the degree of exposure to how much active virus material ! We do hear about aid workers with an increased risk, or even those who have unfortunately succumbed to it. But hear very little about it. Thank you for your link as an example.
Comparisons between countries with regard to the development of corona infection and all associated factors are utter nonsense. The same applies to the projected image. A large number of factors influence and at the same time, both on the patient side (disease pattern, immune system, old age), on the supply side (number of IC beds, quality and quantity of medical personnel, medical equipment, registration of cause of death, test regime and since when) and intermediary factors (such as social distancy, disinfection of environments, lockdowns in various degrees).
In that context, it is important that the vast majority of medical authorities around the world recommend two things: social distancing and hand hygiene. Actually, all other factors are not clear or have not been proven to help: from wearing masks, disinfecting environments and/or wearing gloves. This crisis does not provide more scientific evidence, so more than the two measures mentioned are completely arbitrary and fodder for endless discussions, unsubstantiated political decisions and mafiosi who think they can get rich from the lack of knowledge and the growing fear.
That is a bit taken out of context. The WHO had recommended not wearing masks because they offered no protection. That is still true.
But I watched two programs this week where both virologists said pretty much the same thing. One was a German Professor, Prof. Streeck, who had examined people's homes in Heinsberg (near Zuid-Limburg, where the first major outbreak was) where the virus attached itself to everything, and the other an American doctor who did many investigations in New York.
It was clearly explained how you could get sick and in 99% of the cases it was because you got the viruses through your face: eyes, mouth and nose. Dr. Price said you should at least use a mask, if only because it would make your face less scratchy.
He claimed that he will most likely not get a virus, because he simply disinfected his hands very strictly every time he touched something.
The German virologist said that in the households where there was a strong contamination, even the still-live viruses on door handles were no longer viable. According to him, you don't have to be afraid to touch fruit or other objects in a supermarket, because you can hardly be infected by it.
The main way the virus spreads is that people who carry it unknowingly exhale or cough out the virus. That means someone who has the virus, doesn't know it and isn't wearing a mask, is spreading the virus.
So.. because it is already quite spread, wearing a mask is recommended to NOT LIGHT OTHERS.
The mask is not there to prevent you from getting sick, but to make sure you don't make others sick.
So it's actually easy: wash your hands as much as possible, wear a mask and try not to scratch your face. Plus of course keep your distance, at least 1,5 meters.
Today I saw it again. I went cycling with a friend. We drove along the coast at Pak Nam Pran. Our favorite restaurant where we drink coffee was closed for a week. This was always packed with other cyclists. But you could now order at the door and take your order to seats by the beach.
And there I saw cyclists sitting next to each other on a bench. Maximum distance half a meter!
We looked for a chair and a table and made sure that we had them 1,5 meters away. Also pay attention while cycling. Although I didn't have a mask on now, I did in the beginning while cycling. My nose started to run inside the mask and with that distance, we thought, it should be fine.
While we were drinking our coffee in disposable cups, a car with a group of Thais arrived and put up a sign. From now on it was also forbidden to sit, eat or drink outside on the beach, under penalty of a large fine.
So that is also over. And although I think it's a pity, given the way the other cyclists were so close together, not bad.
In Tesco I gratefully use the disinfectants there and I'm not afraid of getting infected.
Now that I let my thoughts run free, I also have a theory about why in countries such as Spain, Italy and France the number of sick people is much higher than in the Netherlands, Germany and certainly Asia.
Just look at how we greet each other and how a Latino does it. Also sign language. Italians touch each other much more often than we do. We are already keeping a lot more distance.
And here in Asia too. Then comes the fact that almost the entire population wears caps. Also the homemade ones, which then hold back a lot (from infected to the outside world, that is). So here it will already be much less.
But to get back to the virologists. I think that their findings and for the researches of the German Professor Streeck should be much more widely known and that people adapt their behavior to their guidelines. Then there will probably be much less sick. Eventually, most people will one day ingest this virus. But then it is important not to spread it further.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VP7La2bkOMo&t=5s (from German ZDF)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBC3G0e3YVQ (the American expert)
In this video extensive information about masks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoDwXwZXsDI&feature=youtu.be It's a bit slow video (English), but with a lot of VERY relevant information. It is indicated on the basis of research which substances are suitable and which are less suitable. Producing such a mask yourself is relatively easy. I also see masks on television that consist of a foam rubber band (around the forehead) with a clear transparent plastic screen underneath in front of your face. These screens can also be produced very cheaply. The advantage of these plastic screens is that the virus cannot pass through and that they are washable. Just got a call from my home country the Netherlands. It is now exactly the other way around: If you wear a mask, people will avoid you because they think you are infected. That's why no one wants to wear a mask. Still, I think it will soon change: from evasive advice (WHO, government) to a strong confirmation that it does make sense. See the video.
In addition, of course, the other measures are important.
Please forward the video. I think this video can really end the discussion and save lives.
Dear Hans,
“It is a political organization in which not exactly the best qualified people are in charge”
I think it's a pity that you dare to say such a thing.
Where do you get that info/wisdom from?
The WHO does have highly educated and qualified people.
Goodbye.
Dear Geert, of course they also do a good job, but sometimes they drop clear stitches. For example, they have long maintained that the border with China should remain open. That was clearly wrong advice from China because closed borders would violate China's interests. Tedros, the director-general of the WHO, has repeatedly praised China for its policies, while China has made very clear mistakes. China is a major sponsor for WHO. Too important. Or maybe that Tedros is just a corruptible person. Or is he threatened. Who's to say? The interests are, of course, immense.
Incidentally, China is now barring foreigners to prevent the epidemic from flaring up again. Of course, the WHO does not say a word about that.
And such advice not to wear a face mask if you are not sick? Do they assume that you cannot infect anyone as long as you do not have any symptoms? This is, of course, a position that cannot be defended.
The main reason why many countries do not want / or did not want to make wearing a mouth mask mandatory is the dire shortage of these masks among medical staff in hospitals.
Yet you see more and more virologists, and also countries that are clearly starting to change their opinion regarding wearing a mouth mask.
In Austria, on the advice of experts, it has become an obligation from today to wear these masks when entering a supermarket.
In Thuringen (Germany) it has also become an obligation to wear these masks in public, while serious discussions are being held in the rest of the country to do this voluntarily at least for the time being.
In many countries, handy people are busy making these masks themselves without harming medical care.
A well-known German virologist (from the Robert Koch Institute) admitted in a TV broadcast that if the opposite was willing to also wear a mouth mask, it could certainly have a positive effect.
Do people really think that only the WHO has the knowledge here, and that all those other renowned Institutes and Virologists are just ignorant shouting horns.
I keep the prescribed social distance, wash my hands regularly, and also protect myself with a mouth mask because I don't have time to wait and see which body or virologist was / or is right in the end.
Yesterday I heard a virologist who believed that even though you are in possession of an airbag, it was not wrong to also put on a seat belt in your car just to be sure. And I'll stick with that for now...
https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/882642214/anderhalve-meter-is-niet-genoeg.
My opinion: EVERYTHING that is between yourself and a possible source of contamination, and therefore reduces the CHANCE of contamination, is profit. Even if it is fine mesh chicken wire.
Now that the officials still... I don't think they have yet realized that the whole of Europe is already empty, and you therefore have to buy from origin: so... inspection Bureau veritas, DNV... SGS.. TUV, and upon approval pay for it and in person. onto the cargo plane to Schiphol.
Preferably no stopover, because.. then they can be robbed, for example the Chinese with cow letters “: China – Italia, but in the Czech Republic it has been removed by the government there. Long live solidarity in the EU
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3076346/coronavirus-confusion-chinese-masks-bound-italy-end-czech and many other messages
From: Resources Corona
Sent: Wednesday, April 1, 2020 10:50 am
At the moment, priorities have been set for speed and availability within a very short period of time (days).
This means that the primary focus is currently on physical and personally verifiable stocks located within Northwest Europe.
All life on this planet is based on the same principles.
I will not be surprised if a (large) portion of the human population is simply immune to this virus, just as reports from the plague pandemic around 1345 stated that certain regions (The Germanic countries) had far fewer casualties than the Roman countries.
Some will also hardly notice any symptoms and will themselves be more or less contagious.
Otherwise, the outbreak should have been much bigger: one person, who comes back from Italy to celebrate Carnival, and sprays viruses around for 4 days, should have flattened the whole of Tilburg via via via. That did NOT happen, because then 100.000 people would have been sick. Only very unfortunate for those 150 so far in that region, who have NOT survived this virus. And I do NOT want my loved ones and acquaintances in between, so.. if necessary, wear a towel when shopping.
Buy face masks… China is the only one with reasonable capacity: scaled up from 35 million/week to 110 million and now offered at exorbitant prices (2-5x). Yes, some Chinese are going to get very rich.
But do the math… 100 million/wk. Suppose that every Chinese changes his mask 1x/quarter… 1400 million Chinese / 110 million =… total production and… Lou Wei is wished success.
I think it is a matter of a combination of measures: keep your distance, disinfect or not touch hard surfaces such as shopping carts or door handles.
A face mask is also included. An additional reason why a face mask works is that the relative humidity level due to your breathing is higher than the environment, which means that the virus can move less. Lower temperature and lower humidity increase the spreading factor R0.
A Dutch professor said that a face mask would not work.
However, all types of face masks are collected for the nursing staff.
Why isn't it working then?
Due to the shortage of caps, people do not want you to wear caps, because the nursing staff needs this, the shortage is getting even bigger.
Not afraid of a few corona viruses? It starts with a few, traveling on droplets of saliva.
Once in the body, the virus will continue to multiply. After all, they have arrived in their habitat, the body. The right circumstance.
A bit strange if you wouldn't get sick from a few viruses, they multiply in your body.
Recently also read that the distance, 1.5 meters, would be too short. Since droplets of saliva can bridge up to 4X the distance that is currently handled, with virus.
Mi does a cap work and I will use it when visiting the supermarket, although the number of people is usually nil. Never seen so quiet.
I'm not a specialist, but I follow the statements of virologists and there are some things that the majority misunderstand.
1) number of registered infections on the news is not = number of infections. in B/NL, almost 10% would already have (had) the virus, only 5% will become ill! of which 2% go to hospital or have it tested. Only 0.0005% die. afterwards you are immune.
2) A mouth mask doesn't stop the virus, if it gets on it, you get it in, unless the special filter mask. it can even promote contamination because you always bring your hands to your face.
3) If you are sick or have a cold, wear a mask to prevent your virus droplets from flying far onto other people or things.
So in short, mask is only good to show that you do not want to infect others, the chance that you will become seriously ill or die is very small, but 0.0005% of 27 mil (B/NL) is still 13.500 dead and that is too much for hospitals, must be spread.
Whether it helps or not, wear a mouth mask. As Leen says, you cannot enter the supermarket and the bank without a mouth mask. But not only that, you may be considered a walking virus spreader in any city or town in Thailand. And that doesn't make you popular. So just DO! that face mask, maybe not for your health, but certainly for your safety.
In my working life, my employers made me wear a tie, which I found very annoying.
Now in Thailand I am supposed to wear a mask as soon as I leave the house.
If this allows me to reassure my fellow human beings, I will do so, but just like with the tie, with considerable reluctance.
Interesting Hans…thank you…Jack
The assumption that the chance of getting sick depends on the number of viruses you come into contact with has been confirmed by Dr Maarten and that confirmation is enough for me at least. But how much should you take in? That is of course very difficult to indicate and also depends on many factors. Still, I want to give an example dating from the time when it was not yet mandatory in China to wear a mouth mask and so no one did. It concerned a sick Chinese (probably coughing) who sat in a crowded bus with closed windows for four hours. A quarter of those bus passengers later became ill, but three quarters did not. The chance that you will contract an illness here in Thailand after an hour of shopping in a supermarket is “so” much, much smaller than 25%, but probably not zero. So don't panic, but be careful!
Yet a second and in my view illustrative example of how you can become infected:
Not long ago, a group of friends went out in Thailand. Of those friends, one or two were infected and later it turned out that there were more infections, namely those who had exchanged cigarettes and drank from each other's glasses. Those who had not done so were not infected, despite the fact that they had probably spent hours in the immediate vicinity of a corona patient. However, they had probably drunk something in the open air and the exhaled saliva particles containing coronaviruses had been largely removed by the wind. This is of course just an example and many details are unknown, but an exaggerated fear of becoming infected if you come near a sick person in the open air is not necessary. But of course you still have to be careful and taking unnecessary risks is obviously unwise.
I thought this was funny..a doctor explained this to me, with whom I went to school...and I think it makes sense..
Suppose someone throws a bucket of water over you. Drench.
That person does that again, but now you hold a piece of chicken wire in front of you.
You'll get just as wet, you think. However, the water will be less, because the gauze has stopped some drops (ricocheted off, or drops have stuck to it). So just a little less wet, even though it feels the same. So masks do help (even if it's minimal).
I ask further, and those masks that doctors wear… the fibers are placed in such a way (if all is well), that you can breathe in just fine. So going in is fine. Except big particle like spit. Going out a little less. To protect the patient. So a mask is not to protect yourself, but more to protect others (patient).
I thought it was logical….hey you want me to wear a hat in your country, everyone there does that, then I wear it.
Dude, I don't know… I wear such a thing to the 7… they think it's cool there…
: )
Matter of common sense. The fact that mouth masks don't stop everything is quite possible, but they do stop a lot. Ergo, they are useful.
Man on this earth faces risks of dying. We are not aware of most of the risks, either through ignorance (Who measures the air quality every day before leaving the house in Chiang Mai? Who thinks that a sexy Thai young lady can lead you to the abyss and suicide?) either because we estimate the risk of death to be very small or negligible (Who thinks that their flight to Amsterdam will never arrive? Who is afraid that a falling Thai electricity pole will fall on them?). And of the risks of which we are aware, everyone makes their own decisions. One person has safe sex in Pattaya, the other does not. One travels through Thailand with Songkran, the other never.
Now the perceptions of all these risks can be changed and/or manipulated. That is the crux of sustainable behavioral change. Those perceptions (Do I think I could really die if I do or don't do this or that? Assuming you are not tired of life or think your life is complete because then you don't care anymore) can change through knowledge, either through adding new knowledge or by breaking down misconceptions. For example, you should not arrive in the Netherlands with the story that you contracted venereal disease in Pattaya from a dirty toilet seat. Thais had told my previous girlfriend that you couldn't get pregnant the first time you had sex, but that turned out not to be true.
Knowledge changes the perception of risks and/or the severity of these risks. And that goes faster and easier as that knowledge is shared more generally (and does not lead to yes or no discussions, so more or less matches existing ideas and common sense), is (scientifically) proven and is validated by recognized and credible bodies and persons. communicated. If everyone in Thailand has to keep a distance of 3 meters from each other and wear a mask, but you see dignitaries and doctors on TV every day who do not consistently adhere to this, that does not change the knowledge about the usefulness of masks, but it does change the PERCEPTION of its usefulness.
The Internet is a source of new and rapidly spreading knowledge. But it is also a source of many misunderstandings and lies. Everyone can say whatever he/she wants and there is hardly any form of censorship or self-censorship. So it is up to the citizen to believe a story or not. And one citizen is positively down-to-earth and not that afraid, so he doesn't really believe the disaster stories about Corona; the other is negative and afraid of everything and thinks that the Corona virus is roaming everywhere, sticks to everything for days, is super deadly and will also come back. This fear is based on perception of the risk of contracting Corona and/or dying from it, not on a more or less calculated risk. But when fear has taken over, reasonable arguments are no longer worth anything. Then only faith remains (see the argument in Italy about keeping the Catholic churches open).
Now for real Thailand. On January 13, the first Corona infection was measured in a Chinese female tourist from Wuhan. Then remarkably little happens until mid-March (two months, yes TWO months later). The number of infections is increasing very, very slowly. No government requests for social distancing and hand washing. And not for wearing masks either. Apparently the Corona virus doesn't like Thais living in their own country. Or you should think that the best way to combat the virus is to do nothing and ignore it. The situation changes in mid-March when Thai foreign workers return home (or are sent) by Korea. Suddenly the number of infections increases; Not everyone is so strict with the recommended 14-day self-quarantine and a number of (perhaps infected) Thais manage to avoid the health checks at the airport. Since then, the number of infections and deaths has risen, to 1875 and 15 respectively in roughly 100 days: a minimum world record. The conclusion must be that every country in the world can take Thailand as an example. No panic in hospitals, enough ICU beds. And even IF the number of infections and deaths were 10 times as much, this would be an 'excellent' result with a start of the virus in mid-January. The government did not wait for a discussion about the usefulness of wearing a mask (it is not said that they were apparently not necessary at all for two months) and orders that everyone must wear a mask in public spaces. No perception, no substantiated risk analysis. Yes, then you're done talking and a flash mob isn't worth it, I think.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Thailand
Okay Chris, I do want to estimate the risk of getting infected. A somewhat clumsy attempt, of course.
The Thai government assumes that an infected person in Bangkok infects an average of three others. That is “only” one person in three days if we assume that you can infect others for about nine days. And who are the most likely to be infected in the first place? Those are of course the people you have more or less direct contact with for a long time, so your roommates, your friend, people in the crowded public transport, the taxi driver whose taxi you spent an hour in, your colleagues maybe, your friends, the masseuse, the doctors and nurses and so on. But if you visit a supermarket, will you infect other visitors? Of course you put virus particles into the air of that supermarket, but I assume that the concentration is so low that no one gets sick (possibly with the exception of people with a low resistance). But what if ten or perhaps a hundred people with a corona infection are walking around in that supermarket? Then the concentration of virus particles is also ten or a hundred times higher and people could become infected. So my conclusion is that wearing a mouth mask in a supermarket is exaggerated in the initial period of a pandemic, but it is wise at a later stage. So maybe the Thai government recommended using those masks just in time. Maybe.
The story is bursting with assumptions and is therefore nonsensical. And if we are to believe the numbers, the chances are that in a country the size of Thailand, with 65 million inhabitants, I will encounter just one of those 1875 infected, still free-roaming fellow citizens within a distance of 3 meters who will not be at the right time. or cough to neglect. I'd better watch the traffic so as not to become one of those 85 road deaths a week. And that I'm much better without a mask.
Come on Chris, you're being unreasonably negative. Wasn't it you who claimed that there are many more infected people in Thailand than the official figures indicate? I totally agree with that. For England, there are estimates that half of the population is already infected, so millions of Thai could also be. We just don't know. Perhaps it is indeed nonsensical to wear those face masks. But maybe not. Or maybe it only makes sense in areas like Bangkok. At least we know that things can get out of hand like in Italy.
It is more than 400 road deaths per week, Chris, and not 85. You call on others to give the good figures, so do the same yourself. In Italy there are now 800 corona deaths per day. Sixty doctors have died, the crematoriums cannot cope. Don't you think that's enough reason for drastic measures?
What your common sense says is that the chance of someone contracting the virus is negligible and that therefore all measures to reduce the risk of infection are pointless.
You have to take drastic measures at the very beginning of an epidemic to prevent a further outbreak. The argument 'there are only a few deaths now, what are we talking about, the chance is very small' is completely incorrect.
Look, if everyone had used condoms after the first HIV/AIDS infection there would not have been an epidemic. For years, HIV was downplayed and denied in Thailand. 'Something about gays and prostitutes'. Think about that.
It is generally not recommended to use a mouth mask for the second time. That is certainly good advice for mouth masks that have been used by medical personnel. But what about the average user who also has to deal with possible shortages of mouth masks? One possibility is, of course, to wash them, preferably at temperatures of at least 60 degrees, because most proteins then break down (denature), so probably also the proteins that protect the corona virus. In addition, most detergents also contain enzymes (protease) that break down proteins. And for some extra security, a detergent containing bleach could be used. Because it has not yet been proven in practice that this is an adequate measure, I would only use this method if you suspect that you have only used the mouth mask in an environment with few corona viruses.
I don't have a washing machine that can heat the water, so I wash at room temperature (here 35 degrees). Then I dry them outside in the sun. That will also be sufficient. However, certainties can never be given.
There is of course still the option to give the mouth masks a chlorine treatment. However, that is not a very environmentally friendly treatment, but probably sufficient.
I completely agree with Paul. It is true that the WHO/RIVM (still) know too little about the virus. But that the first layman knows best is NOT true. If one were to make the same graph of masks/nomasks to show that people who eat more potatoes become more infected, it would look the same. After all... there seem to be more infections in cooler regions than in warm countries. And in cooler regions, more potatoes are eaten. Is that proof that eating potatoes increases the risk of infection? Here too, statistics are once again used as a lamppost by a drunk man. More for support than for relief.
Tino gave me a better example of wrong conclusions with statistical correlation - which does not have to be a causal relationship -: there was once a study that showed that people who lived right next to high-voltage pylons had cancer more often. You would think that the conclusion is that high-voltage pylons increase your risk of cancer. But guess what? Further research revealed that the lower social classes live next to high-voltage pylons and the better class do not. It was already known from other research that poorer people have a higher risk of cancer (less money for a healthier lifestyle). This explained the higher number of cancer patients near high-voltage pylons.
And even this example is not a causation but still a probability. There are no causal relationships in social science research. And hypotheses can only be tested if there is a theoretical background. The experts already differ in the theory about the usefulness and functioning of (also different types of) masks and the simulations of the functioning have been done in laboratories that are apparently absolutely not representative of the real natural environment. There is sunshine, a fluctuating temperature, different degrees of humidity, not to mention wind and gusts, not to mention how and when the mask is worn, touched or taken off. In short: you can only speculate about the usefulness and everyone does that. For the time being I will say that wearing a mask contributes little or no extra to slowing down the spread, which is the most important goal at the moment. But not wearing a mask can get you money or even jail time in Thailand. That's 100% sure.
Dear Adriaan, you have too much faith in large organizations such as the WHO. Not only laymen think they know better than the specialists, but top people are much more affected by this (Trump is a very clear example of this). I can imagine that the discussion within the WHO went as follows:
1. The specialists propose to advise face masks.
2. The CEO asks whether there is sufficient evidence for this in the event of corona.
3. Answer from the specialists: we don't have that proof yet.
4. The CEO then decides to give a negative advice (possibly bearing in mind the knowledge that poor countries cannot afford those face masks anyway).
An example in a different field concerns the FED, where in the run-up to the credit crisis of 2008, the top of the FED was warned by its own specialists that it would end in disaster if no action was taken. That advice was ignored and the credit crisis broke out.
But you're right, the graph doesn't prove anything, it just suggests something. OK, maybe it's suggesting too much.
Incidentally, it is not exactly warm in Japan in February and March.