Myanmar elections

Aung San Suu Kyi (Nadezda Murmakova / Shutterstock.com)

With all the buzz surrounding the elections in the United States, we would almost have forgotten that elections took place on Sunday, November 8, 2020 in Myanmar, Thailand's northernmost neighbour.

In the first free elections in 2015, the military dictatorship came to an end and Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won a large majority. The NLD then won 75 percent of the 'free' seats in parliament. The constitution written by the military junta at the time states that a quarter of the seats to be distributed are always allocated to the army. In addition, the military has the right to appoint and supervise the ministers of defence, interior and border affairs. The military also has veto power to block bills and changes. In short, a position of power.

Suu Kyi

After fifty years of military dictatorship, Suu Kyi won the first free elections five years ago. As a result, she was officially given the title of State Adviser and is therefore the country's head of government.

Myanmar is home to no less than 135 ethnic groups that, despite the electoral gains, have not gained greater independence in recent months. So much has not changed since 2015 and the military still have a big finger in the pie. Criticizing the government quickly leads to imprisonment.

Not much has come of all the promises made by Suu Kyi after the election victory in 2015, such as democratic reforms and amendments to the constitution.

Of the 37 million eligible voters, nearly two million voters from conflict areas cannot vote because the election commission considers it too dangerous there. This also applies to the ethnic minority groups in the border areas where the army has been fighting guerrilla groups for years. That has not changed under Aung San Suu Kyi either.

And then the Rohingya; they are not recognized in Myanmar as citizens of the country and simply do not have the right to vote.

(can Sangtong / Shutterstock.com)

International Court of Justice

As State Counselor of Myanmar and thus head of the government, Suu Kyi defended the ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya by the army in December 2019 before the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Partly because of this, her reputation has been seriously damaged, especially abroad, because she gave the army free reign in brutal revenge attacks on Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine province.

In his own country, however, the 75-year-old Nobel Prize winner remains very popular. However, she only enjoys that popularity with her own people, the Burmese. With 68 percent, the largest and dominant population group in the country. Many still see her as the woman who pushed back the influence of the military, but also because she defended the oppression of the Rohingya minority in Rakhine state at the Court of Justice in The Hague. The Rohingya are regarded there as illegal aliens who do not belong in Myanmar, even though history shows that they have been living there for centuries.

It has cost her a lot of prestige internationally

A bit strange for someone who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 and was honored internationally in many countries no less than 46 times with high honors. But what does it have to say to ministers appointed by the military, who, with the constitution in hand and the associated right of veto, can dictate or reject anything?

If that constitution is not revised, its power will remain very limited and the military will continue to call the shots.

Constitution

According to the 2008 constitution, 25% of parliamentary seats are automatically allocated to the army and important ministries such as Defence, Interior and Border Affairs invariably remain in military hands to take over power in 'emergencies'.

In 2015, the NLD won 57 percent of the vote, leaving the military party, the USDP, far behind with barely 7 percent. Aung San Suu Kyi now holds 255 of the 440 seats in the House of Commons. The military bloc has 110 (25% through the constitution) plus 30 of the USDP's votes, for a total of 140 seats. The constitution can only be changed if more than 75% of parliament agrees.

The political power of the army is therefore regulated by law and the reform of the constitution promised by Suu Kyi has so far failed.

(Robert Bociaga Olk Bon / Shutterstock.com)

The only thing that has been achieved is that political parties can now be founded and campaigned. The enthusiasm knows no bounds because no less than 90 parties participated in the elections this year 2020. A nice fragmentation and not in favor of the NLD.

Although according to the electoral commission the official election results will not be known until early next week, Suu Kyi's party claimed victory in Myanmar's parliamentary election last Monday, the day after the polls closed.

A spokesperson has reported to the Reuters news agency that the NLD has achieved an unattainable majority according to its own counts.

Despite the expected gains, if the constitution is not amended, little will change in Myanmar. The military will continue to hold real power through that constitution.