Parliament in Thailand will try to elect a new prime minister on August 4 after two failed attempts
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The Thai parliament will attempt a new one next week premier after two previous failed attempts. This was announced on Thursday amid mounting political uncertainty, more than two months after the nationwide election.
The parliament confirmed that the vote will take place on August 4, despite the recent statement by the parliament speaker that the vote will be postponed pending a ruling by the Constitutional Court on the legality of the parliament's attempt to block Pita Limjaroenrat. Limjaroenrat's Progressive Party, MoveForward, won the most seats in the elections and has been nominated as prime minister for the second time.
Following complaints from citizens and members of Limjaroenrat's party, the government ombudsman has applied to the court to rule on the constitutionality of parliament's vote. Limjaroenrat lost a first parliamentary vote on July 13. Thai media report that the court will meet on Thursday, the day before the newly scheduled vote, to determine whether it will accept the case. If accepted, the vote could be postponed until after the court's verdict.
Thaksin Shinawatra
At the same time as the political uncertainty, the former Prime Minister's daughter announced Thaksin Shinawatra, one of the most controversial figures in Thai politics, announced on Wednesday that he plans to return on August 10 after years in self-imposed exile to avoid jail time on criminal charges he sees as politically motivated. Thaksin was elected prime minister in 2001 and re-elected in 2005, but was ousted in a military coup in 2006 over allegations of corruption, abuse of power and disrespect for the country's monarchy. The Pheu Thai party, the latest in a series of closely linked parties allied to Thaksin, is trying to win enough support in parliament for one of its leaders to become prime minister. Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is one of the party's three candidates.
Forming a new government after the elections in May has proved an unexpectedly difficult task. Move Forward, the surprise winner of the election, formed an eight-party coalition with 312 seats in the 500-member House of Commons. However, under the military-mandated constitution, the election of a new prime minister requires a majority vote in both the elected House and Senate of 250 members, appointed by a previous military government. The first round of voting on Limjaroenrat fell more than 50 votes short, largely because only 13 senators supported him. The Senate sees itself as a guardian of conservative royalist values. Many senators have said they will not vote for Limjaroenrat because of his party's call for reform of a law that makes it illegal to discredit the royal family (Article 112). Critics argue that this law, which carries a maximum prison sentence of 15 years, is being widely abused as a political weapon.
Dubious role of Pheu Thai?
Parliament will also debate a proposal submitted by Move Forward on August 4 to amend the constitution and remove the Senate's ability to veto a prime ministerial candidate. There is growing public frustration at Parliament's inability to appoint a new leader. Supporters of the Move Forward party have staged several protests, calling on senators to stop blocking a candidate from the eight-party coalition. Dozens of protesters gathered in central Bangkok on Thursday to express their anger at the Senate and growing rumors that Pheu Thai plans to collaborate with parties that support the outgoing government of Thailand. Prayuth Chan-ocha who, as army commander, seized power in a coup in 2014 and was reappointed as prime minister after the 2019 election.
Move Forward, retired as leader of the coalition after two failed attempts to elect a prime minister and left Phu Thai, the second largest member, take the lead. Pheu Thai's other possible candidates include real estate magnate Srettha Thavisin and Chaikasem Nitsiri, the party's chief strategist. While Pheu Thai said last week that the coalition will stick with its original members for now and try to garner more support before the next vote, it did not rule out Move Forward could be ruled out to attract more conservative lawmakers. In 2019, it met with several parties that supported Prayuth as prime minister.
Move Forward supporters believe that Pheu Thai pursues power over principle. The rumor that Pheu Thai would switch sides was further fueled by the announcement of Thaksin's return. The royalist establishment, backed by the military, harbors deep animosity towards Thaksin, leading many to believe that Pheu Thai struck a deal with them to facilitate the return of the populist billionaire.
Source: Khaosod English
PT doesn't know what to do. They have stung themselves into a hornet's nest in their hunger for power and fame. If they drop MFP, they will face scorn. If they form a government with current government parties, then the fence is the same. Street protests have already taken place. Things are not getting any easier for the ordinary man and woman in the street. Why do they let us choose if nothing changes, you hear from both the left and the right.
Meanwhile, MFP is working through the Ombudsman to get Pita back in the nomination. The Constitutional Court will rule on this on Thursday, while a new PM vote is scheduled for the following Friday. But on that day, parliament will also discuss withdrawing Senate involvement in such votes. The Senate itself must agree. I have a hard head in it.
And then there is the fact that Prawit does/does not and then does not/does participate again as PPRP party chief, that Thaksin returns from self-imposed voluntary exile on August 10 and is immediately sent to a freshly wallpapered and comfortably furnished prison suite. Thaksin's return would be part of a deal with the old guard. Thaksin back, MFP out. But well-informed media sources are again saying that Thaksin is putting his money where his mouth is.
I think it turns out that if PT and MFP fight over a leg, then Anutin from Bhumjaithai will walk away with it. Only MFP itself can prevent that by completely renouncing 112. But that doesn't sit well with their supporters. So there is always something different, because what was Thanatorn doing in Hong Kong? As I said, it is not getting any easier for the ordinary man and woman in the street. There comes a time when they are tired of it.
My expectation:
1. The PT will introduce Srettha as PM and without any reference to any coalition or MOU. The senators then no longer have any arguments to vote no.
2. Srettha can then form a new government and talk to the various candidates about their wishes and requirements (a bit like in the formation talks in the Netherlands)
3.MFP enters the new government. Art 112 becomes a free issue and change is therefore (for the time being) not an issue.
4. Thaksin waited for the king's birthday speech, listened carefully and then decided to get his money's worth. He's not coming back.
Thaksin is ultimately a coward. Big mouth, pushing country backwards from “political motives” (???why??) during his premiership.
My girlfriend is glad he's gone. Peutai will eventually notice that she has shot herself in the foot.
Now we have to wait and see whether the biggest boss can also stop Pita in the long term.
It is a completely idiotic system that parliament and senate can determine via a simple majority whether a party or its leader becomes prime minister.
The people have chosen, but the parliament / senate don't care. Pita should be given the chance to form a government. Only when it is clear that he will not succeed will other parties get a chance. but yes: with the generals against you and no preferential vote from the biggest man in Bangkok (after all, insult should be less strictly controlled and punished) then you are apparently already 2-0 behind.
Peu Thai is indeed a wolf in sheep's clothing: playing a kind of PvdA in front of the stage, but in fact cooperating with the conservative elite.
my girlfriend was a big supporter of fellow villager Thaksin, but now considers him and his party to be the great traitors.
It remains important to see the situation in the right perspective. It's really no more idiotic than in the Netherlands. Just consider the fall of Rutte III and his resurrection in Rutte IV. They can also do something in BE. A while ago there was a call for a strong man. In Thailand they want to get rid of one. So Thailand: the MFP had an election result of about 30% and the PT 28%. Which resulted in a seat distribution of 151 vs 141. If you take the MOU parties minus PT, the MFP only has an additional support of 20 seats and comes to 171. The PT bloc with BJT has already reached 200. A total of 171 seats out of a total of 500 is nothing to be proud about. Even without a senate, MFP would not have succeeded on its own.
Then you need a coalition. Keep in mind that it was the MFP itself that let go of the 141-seat PT and handed over the initiative. Let's also not forget MFP's completely politically sensitive choice (with controversies to be expected) to nominate Pita as PM with iTV around his neck, and the other choice to include 112 so prominently in its programme. The old guard was strongly displeased with Pita's reform ideas, and picked up 112 to maneuver the MFP to the sidelines. As simple spectators farang as we already foresee, why not the MFP's strategists and spin doctors? My analysis? The expectation was that PT would get off the bus with double the seats and everyone was shocked.
As @Chris says at 10.10 as the cards have been reshuffled in recent weeks, and the political hares in the field have run their traditional and conservative rounds: PT provides the PM, 112 becomes a free issue, the MFP gets government participation. So you can ask yourself the question about 112: why not then, and why not now? The MFP has had its chances, has shown no leadership over the 8 MOU parties, has given away its position and they are now left with nothing but to muse about 2027. Those are also choices. Will be difficult for Adepts.
112 has always been a free issue, for example it was not included in the coalition agreements (MoU). What do you mean “112 not then, but now”? It only really became an item after the previous elections, when things escalated and more people had to deal with 112 and more people started to publicly criticize. A significant part of the population is opposed to potential abuse of the law and since it fits in with what MFP stands for, it is only logical that it is included in their program. Anyone who wants change can hardly come up with some weak compromise program in advance. No, you make it clear in advance which way you want to go and only at the negotiating table do you compromise. For example, by not including 112 in the MoU and leaving it free for parties to vote on as they wish.
Most people can see that 112 reform will probably not come in the next four years, after all, see how reticent PT is about this, with difficulty they announced in the run-up to the elections that TZT might be discussed in the chamber. I would interpret that as "we don't really want to do anything about it, but we know that there are also many people who want to do something about it for winning maximum vote, so we just say that we're going to take a look at it TZT to minimize potentially stepping on people's toes and alienating us.”
In the Netherlands and Belgium, the leaders of the winning party (Rutte, among others) will try to form a government based on party programs.
In Thailand, the winning party, especially its leader Pita, is excluded in advance by parliament and the Senate by vote. So he doesn't even get the chance to form a government.
A fairly essential difference with the situation in NL and Belgium. The fact that the formation in these 2 countries took a long time in recent times is sad in itself, but it is more democratic than just - as could happen in Thailand - the worker who has fallen up (with a special residence "down Under") suddenly becomes prime minister. How crazy do you want it?
I can only agree with the opinion that Teun has already posted above, the system is too crazy for words and an actual emancipation of the Thai voter / population.
Ultimately, the national election, which also entails unnecessary costs, is nothing more than a theater intended to give the voter/the outside world the impression that everything is going very democratically.
Why this charade when, in the end, only this senate has the real electoral power?
For poll fans. In the July 30 Nida poll, the topic was “Mistakes Committed by the Move Forward”.
The reaction was to what mistakes the party made in forming a government
– 43%: that the party has not let go of certain policy points
– 28%: that the party is unable to compete in the political game of parliament
– 10%: that the party does not understand the Thai political and cultural reality.
– 10% that the party was negligent in examining qualifications achieved (rob: results achieved?)
(Rob: In the July 16 Nida poll, 13% of people believed the party had to let go of positions in order to please senators and gain enough support for Pita's nomination).
Surrounding the prime ministerial candidate, Pita, said:
– 8% that the party has made many political enemies
– 8% that problems lie with fanatical supporters (“fans”) of the party
– 8% that the party listens too much to supporters of the party
– 6% that the party lost too many votes out of the 14 million votes it captured
– 6% that the party's strategic advisers misjudged the situation
When asked whether protests will follow if the party enters the opposition:
– 35% yes, large protests that can be controlled
– 25% yes, small protests that can be controlled
– 24% yes, there will be protests
– 12% there will be no mass protests
– 3% there will be small protests that cannot be controlled
When asked if it is possible that the next election will have a party with similar views but with more compromises:
– 36% that could
– 34% that is very possible
– 20% that is impossible
– 10% that is unlikely
Source: Nida https://nidapoll.nida.ac.th/survey_detail?survey_id=641
Also came across the poll at BKP, which Nida itself does not mention, but BKP does say that 30% believe that MFP has not made any mistakes. And as for the 10% who said something about assessing qualifications, that's Pita's.
Thai Enquirer announced an hour ago that PT candidate PM Srettha believes that MFP should not put the amendment to Article 112 to the vote in the coming government period. “Changing the law is currently an obstacle in government formation.”
Several senators accuse Srettha of also saying before the elections that the law should be amended to prevent political abuse. So, as expected, many senators and the former pro-junta parties are holding their own and continue to use the excuse of 112 to stop a government of the 8 coalition partners.
Personally, I remain of the opinion that it is not about 112 at all, but about the interests of the old guard and a cabinet that wants to take a completely different path remains undesirable. 112 remains the excuse. Perhaps MFP can now strategically say “under great pressure we are putting this very important point in the fridge for our very important point and we are not going to bring it into the chamber and put it to a free vote in the coming term of office” (where it would almost certainly fail because PT would rather cooperate with the powers that be than progressive forces). That will be a very heavy pill for the MFP voters, so rightly so that it is not handed over too quickly. Subsequently, all kinds of senators and pro-junta parties continue to interfere, after all, they have no guarantee that MFP will not still submit a 112 motion in the next few years and Srettha was also in favor of adjustment, so PT cannot be fully trusted for the old whisk. Then Srettha will not come through next Friday (July 4th). Can MFP show that it was not about 112 and the pro-junta people can continue to insist that they want more water with the wine. That PT better go with Anutin and the like… Perhaps complaining that the “rigid” attitude of PT and MFP will damage the economy, so that it is the coalition of 8 with a majority in the room that is to blame to everything and the senate and pro-junta parties have the best interests at heart…