The great chess game has begun
Thaksin Shinawatra
Before the red carpet can be rolled out for Thaksin's triumphant return, two conditions must be met: amnesty for Thaksin and the appointment of a friendly army commandert.
Voranai Vanijaka writes this in his weekly column bangkok mail, in which he sharply analyzes how Thaksin and government party Pheu ภาษาไทย to achieve that. Simply put: by launching test balloons, like Thaksins travel to Japan, his announcement that he wants to be at his daughter's wedding in November, the transfer of National Police Chief Wichean and then see what the reaction is. The game is looking for weak spots on which to attack.
Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung hammers the amnesty anvil. He would have been reprimanded by Pheu Thai's strategic team. Will Chalerm be hanged by the party? No, says Voranai, it's strategy. The governing party has created a safety net: denial. If there is any resistance to this 'Free Thaksin' crusade, she can always point to that bombastic Chalerm, that brawler, that loner, and Pheu Thai washes his hands in innocence.
Legal experts say there is little chance of a review of Thaksin's 2-year prison sentence. Voranai: But when you have the power, you can get away with anything, legality doesn't matter. Take the 2006 coup, for example.
Getting rid of the current army commander, a pro-Democrat man, could take a year, take two years. But it happens. Thaksin has four years to make it happen, Voranai said.
Will the red carpet eventually be rolled out? Voranai dare not predict it. 'When it comes to political outcomes, logic and reason tend to fly out of the window. In a world of endless possibilities, we will just have to wait and see.'
If there is no coup or if T accidentally falls from the balcony…. then he will simply return within 2 years and be a candidate in the elections in 4 years.
Chang Noi
To accidentally fall off the balcony, he has to get to Pattaya first 😉
I read Voronai Vanijaka's column every Sunday. He fillets Thai society and in particular Thai politics with a filleting knife.
Of course they won't bring Thaksin back in one-two-three. That is asking for another coup. In addition, there are influential figures in the Phue Thai Party who want to keep Thaksin as far from Thailand as possible. They have their own agenda.
Voranai is an exceptional columnist/journalist. With Sanitsuda Ekachai he forms the conscience of Thailand. Why don't these people have influence, I sometimes wonder. Their comments are not translated and published in Thai newspapers, which, according to my wife, are champions of kicking open doors.
If that were to happen I wonder if those two wouldn't need security…
Nothing is more difficult to understand than the Thai political machinations. In the recent past, there have even been deputy ministers who publicly admitted that they do not understand the Thai political game.
As for a possible return of Thaksin; there are a number of people within the Pueu Thai, Chalerm leading the way, who believe that once that goal is achieved (to ram an amnesty for Thaksin through parliament), it will be "pay back time" for Thaksin. Then the millions should start flowing towards his rescuers. Whether that will happen remains to be seen. Thaksin is known as a huge currant, a kind of Scrooge McDuck, who likes to swim in his money and is always trying to make his fortune swell, not shrink.
We shall see. I already have a strong opinion about his sister: Clone Belly Talking Doll. If you disagree, please prove otherwise.
I think his "rescuers" know him well and therefore want to have hard cash before they do anything. So there will soon be huge government spending on “certain” Thai clans.
Chang Noi
@Chang Noi,
It is and remains speculation, especially for us. It never gets boring 😉
Hans, I wanted to type it in brackets (3 x word value), but it was already too late.