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Home » Background » Does Pheu Thai risk dissolution by the court?
Does Pheu Thai risk dissolution by the court?
Posted in Background, Politics, Elections 2023
Tags: Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Phu Thai
Mrs Paetongtarn Shinawatra
Will it soon go in the same direction as with the Future Forward Party? There are rumors that the actions of senior Shinawatra and Nattawut Saikua, a 'red' leader who is not allowed to engage in political activities, could lead to the disbanding of the party. Just when the party is doing well in the polls to win the elections.
The Prayut government has appointed "law-abiding" comrades in the main courts and it is expected that they will judge biased if the dissolution of Pheu Thai is requested after the elections.
I direct the reader to a link in Nikkei Asia.
Summarized by Erik Kuijpers. Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Thai-election/Thailand-s-largest-opposition-faces-dissolution-fears-after-election
And on this subject another link, from Fulcrum from Singapore. Also in English.
https://fulcrum.sg/thailands-right-wing-parties-keeping-democracy-close-but-its-enemies-closer/
Phua Thai's commitment to give everyone 18+ 10.000 digital baht is part of what has been labeled a possible attempt at "vote buying", we recently learned in the media. it is clear that the establishment will use every creative trick to undermine “Thaksin parties”. So it wouldn't surprise me that a certain fact that can be interpreted this way or that according to the law could cost the party dearly. The decisions of the Electoral Council and the Constitutional Court that defeated this or that party or politician speak volumes.
And then Phua Thai is not even a left party, but center center right. It is that they have some plans in which the plebs also benefit from being something more left-wing than say the Democrats or one of the many other parties. But you will hardly find left of the center in Thailand. Actually only the orange party (Move Forward, formerly Future Forward). There is still the Commoner Party (พรรคสามัญชน) but it has practically no chance.
Finding a party on the right that truly embraces democracy is quite difficult. Parties affiliated with a former junta are clearly more autocratic (know your place, ranks and positions), but in addition to those conservative views, there are of course also more economically liberal parties. Take the Democrats (but actually also Phua Thai). They get along well with certain CEO/companies. But a true capitalist does not care much about democracy, because participation by the people, or especially many employees, is more of a burden than a pleasure for the owners. To really give democracy a chance to develop through trial and error, that will be a major challenge for Thailand. The main hope is that this or that state body does not again feel the "need" to bring things down again for the sake of "national interest" (read: the interests of this or that clique of elite families that fight each other).
So I am very curious about the elections, to what extent the people will be represented and can cast their vote (don't forget the undemocratic power of the senate appointed by the junta). Those who have power don't like to give it up...
NB: and be able to call back strongly in favor of the idea of representatives, if a representative in politics, organization or company gets it in the head, you can call them back. For example, you could somewhat restrict leaders so that power and plushness do not knock them to the head. But being accountable to the people below you? That is of course terribly un-Thai? ….
Promising 10.000 Baht is also a bribe, isn't it?
Perhaps the trick is in the word “digital”, which is not real money put into circulation by the central bank.
Since you cannot spend that money at your own discretion, the question is how much that 10.000 Baht is really worth in terms of purchasing power.
The power of the Senate is less than it seems.
They can block government decisions, but they cannot force the government to rule, other than with another coup d'état.
And occasionally the senate will want a law passed, or some project passed, and then you can negotiate as a government.
Isn't it crazy that a parliament has to negotiate with undemocratic elements that simply try to protect the interests of a small group of people at the top of society? And then someone like Prayuth thumps this week that Thailand is a democracy. Meanwhile, we see again the well-known practices that those who are too progressive / liberal and want to tackle the curtailment will have to deal with the stick of the powers that be. For example, Piyabuth (number 2 of the disbanded Future Forward party) must now report to the police for a complaint made against him TWO years ago. This hinders him from campaigning for the Move Forward party, and the police agree but say there are so many campaigners that it doesn't really matter if Piyabuth can't stand on his soap box... That Piyabuth is one of the most famous faces is for this progressive party they ignore for a while, or that the timing to do something with that charge is pretty curious.
And those election promises that voters will benefit financially by receiving (more) money for this or that, or making something free, etc., we see such promises from many parties. If that is "bribing", I think many parties should be allowed to pack it in. Oh, and the political parties had until the beginning of this week to financially substantiate how they want to fulfill their election promises. The Electoral Council then judges whether it is appropriate; these people are of course math whizzes who can objectively judge whether a program is financially justifiable or not. If you disapprove, you risk suspension from participation in the elections, dissolution, etc. The same Electoral Council that sometimes came to special actions or conclusions around and in the aftermath of the previous elections. Not all that fresh if you ask me. I am not a fan of Phua Thai, but it is clear to me that the powers that be would like to influence certain parties. In short, the people upstairs who do not trust the plebs and want to keep them far from the helm.
The chances are of course very high in this "democracy", the sitting government of decent people can of course not let it happen in the interest of the population that a government of the plebs comes.
I see PT & MFP winning in the upcoming election. But despite not being able to get enough votes in a coalition government. For current leaders, a new PT-led government is a “loss of face”. The 250 senators will likely abstain, falling short of the required 376. And voting for the new Prayuth party leads to a minority government. That does not work.
So a deadlock, where I see 2 possibilities:
1. An “outsider” is elected PM, and Prayuth becomes “privy counselor”.
2. Prayuth is elected anyway, with the help of the senators & temporarily forms a minority government. Subsequently, everything is done to dissolve the PT & MFP parties, and elected parliamentarians are “invited” to switch until a majority government is formed.
Then the large-scale protests can begin.
I don't think Prayut will be in the post-election game anymore.
The disintegration of the trinity of generals who supported each other all their lives is a sign that there are forces in this country (and not just from the 'left') that want to get rid of him. There were already attempts to remove Prayut from Prompreaw, secretly supported by Prawit. Prayut made a good choice, but I think he came home from a rude awakening. The real nationalists, whoever they may be, choose the PPRP and not Prayut.