Some thoughts on the upcoming election
It is clear to everyone that the elections of next May 14 are important for the political and social future of Thailand. What is at stake, according to Tino Kuis?
Below I mention a number of points that we should pay attention to. I am not giving a complete overview and hope that readers can add to it and comment. The points I mention come from my own reflections based on some conversations with Thais and what I have learned from the press and social media.
On social media people often say about the current government that they are เบื่อ 'we are fed up', they want a new beginning. Little has come of the promised 'Returning Happiness to the People' and the call for a different course is therefore being heard.
Who will win the elections? And what does that mean?
It is quite certain that the current opposition parties, the Pheu Thai (PTP) and the Move Forward Party (MFP) will gain a majority in the new parliament. The latest polls indicate that the Pheu Thai will get 37.9 percent of the vote (up from 47 percent a month ago) and the Move Forward party 35.3 percent (a month ago they were only at 21.5 percent). If the polls are correct, the PTP and the MFP together will therefore be able to win about 340 to 360 of the 500 parliamentary seats.
The other parties. The United Thai Nation Party, with Prime Minister Prayut as its candidate, the Palang Pracharat Party with Prawit, the Bhumjaithai Party and the Democratic Party each have between 6 and 8 percent of the vote in the polls. The current coalition is nowhere near a majority in parliament.
Choosing the Prime Minister
The prime minister also composes the government and is thus an important figure. The Prime Minister will be elected by the 500 members of Parliament along with the 250 members of the Senate. A candidate prime minister will therefore have to obtain at least 376 votes. Parliament may be able to reach that number, provided the polls are correct and a few other parties vote along with PTP and MFP. But given the influence of the senate, it is also possible that Prime Minister Prayut will be re-elected and that he will have to rule with a parliament that does not favor him. Such an unstable situation opens the door for all kinds of scenarios.
The election programs of a few parties
All parties have populist programs, they promise a one-time cash benefit. I read and hear that most voters appreciate such short-term help, but they certainly also want more structural changes that improve life.
For examples of structural change you can take the Move Forward Party, for example. For example, this party argues for decentralization: more influence to the periphery through elections for the governors of the provinces. They argue for de-monopolization: counteracting the many monopolies in Thailand, in order to give small and medium-sized businesses more space. Are they in favor of 'demilitarisation': abolishing conscription and limiting the defense budget. And most sensitive of all: amendments to Article 112 (the lèse-majeste article), in order to curtail abuse of this law.
Most parties want an increase in the minimum wage (PTP to 600 baht per day, the MFP to 450 baht, the Palang Pracharat to about 400 baht), and a higher benefit to the elderly: from around 1000 now to around 3.000 baht per month.
The leading candidates for the premiership
PTP has Paetongtarn Shinawatra as a candidate, daughter of Thaksin and who has just given birth to her second child. However, these family ties and her young age also raise problems. The MFP comes with the increasingly popular Pita Limjaroenrat.
Of the current coalition parties, Prime Minister Prayuth is of course seeking re-election on behalf of the United Thai Nation Party. But Deputy Prime Minister Prawit (Palang Pracharat) and Deputy Prime Minister Anutin (Bhumjaithai) will also run for office. Only with the support of the senate can one of these gentlemen become prime minister, but then he will probably have to deal with a hostile parliament.
Possible election scenarios
- Prayut becomes prime minister again, but as said, cannot rely on a parliamentary majority. There will be a practical wing-lamb cabinet. That will be a disaster for good policy.
- Paetongtarn or Pita is elected as prime minister. That will probably mean the end of the conservative-military course.
- The MFP is dissolved by the Electoral Council, mainly because of this party's position with regard to Article 112, the lèse-majeste article. There are already rumors about that.
- There will be political and social unrest (point 1 or 3) with a coup d'état as a result.
Closing comments
Obviously I don't have a crystal ball, but I do know that either way, these elections will be very important for the future of Thailand. In the aftermath of the pandemic, among other things, citizens have the necessary concerns and therefore hope for a cabinet that can hit the nail on the head. The current issues are well illustrated in this report from the Singaporean CNA Insider:
I'm curious to see how readers view the upcoming elections and would love to hear your comments!
Thanks to Rob V. for additions and corrections.
also look forward to the population that is due for renewal the pity of the whole thing that "senate" that is "elected" for five years while the elections are every four years.
And they all promise to get better in the short term financially, there was a small mistake on the minimum wage increase of 600 baht / month instead of per day, I suppose let it now run from about 405 to about 500 € per month, which would be nice, but where should that money come from?
Now that the three "tenors" of the previous government are each in a different party to have any hope of being re-elected against Taksin's daughter who has no political experience (unless through dad and aunt) and is also the favorite of MFP Pita it will be watching coffee grounds either the real election result is respected or the forced one (with senate) and all its consequences another coup d'état
I think Pheu Thai and Move forward will get a big win and form a coalition.
However, I think it is too early for a few positions such as cutting the defense budget and Article 112, you can see that there is less and less "respect" among the youth for the old values, in the cinema there is no standing up anymore for him.
Will there be another coup?
I think so, but whether the social unrest will be big enough to get the soldiers back in the barracks I don't think, the power of the army is too great at the moment.
Thank you Tino for your current overview on the eve of the elections.
The scenarios outlined are the most plausible.
I notice in our northern Thai village that hardly anyone noticed the then promise of “Returning happiness to the people”. Promise is debt, also in Thailand. There mainly financial debt with the families.
And then that constitution that was so controversial and that would bring certainty. That constitution is in danger of becoming a mirage after the first electoral litmus test. Especially if MFP and/or Pheu Thais were sidelined by "lawfare" (cf. warfare) after a "landslide result", there would be another coup or if the military-minded would form a minority coalition.
It is a small miracle that this country with so much political bumbling (bad governance) has not yet fallen into a deep economic crisis, thanks to the industrious Thai people who work hard for meager wages and the development of the country ... and that in this heat .
Sorry, I'm getting old. It is of course the minimum wage per day and not per month. What about the many self-employed people? The high cost of living and high levels of debt keep most people on their minds.
A major reason for debts is also the lack of a national insurance for health care, as we had in the Netherlands at the time of the health insurance fund. And also that everyone wants to send their children to university and goes into debt to do so, while in many cases this is not a study that contributes to the development of the individual or of the economy in general. Needless to mention open doors such as corruption and monopolies, which stand in the way of the development of 'Small and Medium Sized' companies, which could make the greatest contribution to increasing productivity.
If Thailand wants to blow a new wind, now is the time with Pita as prime minister and making a clean sweep of the military influences. However, there is a good chance that this can end with yet another coup and then things could get very out of hand in the big cities where the supporters of MFP are located ...
hello tina,
Good to read your story again.
I don't have a crystal ball either, but I do have a few comments on your post:
– Every parliamentary election in the last 20 years has been important for the country; this one, but no more important than the previous ones, in which it was always between conservative and more progressive forces, or better: between the establishment and the people;
– The PT and MFP will undoubtedly win the elections, but the big question is who will be the new prime minister. I hope the PT settles for second place and accepts MFP's new Prime Minister into a coalition. People are not used to playing second fiddle to politics, as can be seen from the latest election speeches;
– I consider it virtually impossible that Prayut will become the new prime minister. I think it is not inconceivable that the senators abstain from voting when the PT and MFP have such a clear majority in parliament. They deserve the benefit of the doubt. They must also be under pressure in the background to adhere to democratic principles;
– I don't understand how you think that another coup is on the horizon if Prayut comes to power (point 1 of your posting). Who should commit that coup: Thanathorn?
– The PT also has more candidates for the premiership and I think they would do well NOT to introduce Thaksin's daughter if they become the largest party. That's throwing oil on the fire. Remember that 20 to 25% of the population will still vote for the current rulers. This is seen as unnecessary bullying.
My expectation: a coalition of MFP and PT with Pita as prime minister. And if this coalition is politically sensible, things will change in this country, slowly but with determination: the easy things first. And those are the things that the conservatives also agree with (according to their election slogans): raising the minimum wage, raising pensions, higher salaries for starting academics, etc. The controversial things will come later.
@ Chris you ask :- I don't understand how you think another coup is on the horizon if Prayut comes to power. Who should commit that coup: Thanathorn?
In a country with so many generals? I recently read 1000. Too much choice I would say.
There will certainly be several generals, retired or not, who have “network” in the “establishment” (that's how you call “the powers that be”, I usually call it the 30 multi-billionaire Thai families). You can bet that those generals are readily available for a coup (attempt) if requested by (part of) that “establishment”.
It has been that way many times before.
The question is how the current army command will position and organize itself if the coup history were to repeat itself.
Thanatorn? To your knowledge, does Thanatorn have a solid network in the military top? I would be very surprised, in the absence of any indication for it. But maybe you know more?
Incidentally, a coup is not the only post-electoral future scenario that Tino wisely sketches.
A coup against the former soldier Prayut, who leads a minority government with the help of the senate (and probably gives a shit about the real parliament)?
Now nothing is impossible in this country but I don't see who should do that, unless Prayut and his friends themselves to sideline parliament. (Thanatorn was joking of course).
What everyone seems to overlook (or does not consider important) is that the three old faithful generals are not represented in 1 party. As of today, no one has yet been able to provide a good and acceptable explanation as to why this separation took place. It is certainly not because they are both stronger in the elections. The internal coup against Prayut on the part of Prompraew and Prawit was really not of their own making. There are higher powers who want to get rid of Prayut. That much is certain. And those powers are stronger than the electorate. For that reason alone, a coup by Prayut and supporters is unlikely. A coup is not just something of a few disgruntled generals.
Prayuth, military off duty but one remains military to death (unless your titles are stripped away, but even Thaksin, police lieutenant colonel, that only happened in 2015, long after he fled). In any case, he will still have his friends, enemies and other contacts within the army. Prayuth himself comes from the 2nd Infantry Division (Eastern Tigers, Queen's Guard), to which Prawit is also attached. This group had gained in influence in recent years, but this has recently diminished again, in favor of the traditionally more powerful 1st Infantry Division (King's Guard). So a coup against Prayuth could very well come from the King's Guard.
The current commander of the armed forces is General Narongpan Jitkaewthae, attached to various factions (Eastern Tigers, Special Forces, Wongthewan). He would also have good contacts with a prominent person above him. So if they are of the opinion that military intervention is again necessary…
I assume that the regular reader of this blog now knows that within the army there are various factions with varying networks. And those networks don't last forever, as we saw with Prawit, who almost tripped Prayuth last year. With the changing networks in both the army and elsewhere (higher up the tree, just think of a sister and the previous elections and how her brother viewed it). In Thailand anything is possible, including a coup against yourself (General Thanom in 1971). Should I put my money on a fraction than probably the King's Guard (Wongthewan) corner.
However, if the powers that be are not happy with the election results, I consider it more obvious that they first look for a “clean” solution: legal action against Phua Thai and Move Forward. The rules and laws that parties and party members must adhere to leave room for various interpretations. If they want to get rid of you, the rules can be explained in this way, and if they don't want to get rid of you, this is how. There is probably a stick that can be used to hit PT and MFP. “outside influence by a person who is not allowed to interfere in politics” or proof that some votes have been bought somewhere, for example. The way is then open, for example, to call elections again or another “necessary emergency solution in the interest of the country” to safeguard the stability and governability of the country.
If it is allowed to come to a cabinet of PT+MFP+…, then they will indeed be the first to fulfill the promises that are also good or not objectionable to large parts of the people and the other parties. Much of what MFP wants is still a bridge too far for now, the broom through defense will see a lot of resistance and so will touching 112 where perhaps a pyrrhic victory can be achieved with a lot of pain and effort through potential abuse of that law something that in to checkers. A radical change of course for the country is not likely to happen anytime soon. The influence of the unelected senate and various other powers is still too great for that.
I therefore advise the Thai I speak to definitely vote, they often hope for progressive change. I share that wish with them, I tell them that I support them, but that major changes are not to be expected in the first few years. Hopefully that will not disappoint the voters, in the longer term the dinosaurs will disappear and more will become possible. Provided Thailand can finally develop democratically without the intervention of this or that…
1. Everyone in the top of the military has contacts with a prominent person above them (if only because that person appointed him). That is not always in a positive sense, not in the past and not now.
2. Ideas, initiatives for a coup never come from this eminent person.
3. I am sure that shadow parties have been set up, as in the past, in case PT or MFP are banned. Members have a certain number of days to switch sides. The deadlock then remains.
4. Prayut is not a fan of the Kings Guard and the guard is not a fan of him. That's why he won't be Prime Minister. Apirat is the messenger.
I'd like to hear why you expect Pita to be prime minister? At the moment, Phua Thai seems to be the largest and therefore the most logical party to provide a prime minister. That will then be Pheethongthaan (known as อุ๊งอิ๊ง, óeng-íng) unless that turns out to be unworkable and one of the other two prime ministerial candidates is appointed: Chaikasem Nitisiri or Srettha Thavisin. Given Thaksin's voice on social media, he wants to try to return to Thailand again, so he will be wise enough to speak out for a PT team that can satisfy the various powers of the country.
Sometimes not trying to take on the most prominent role as a winner is not given to many people. Incidentally, I do not know enough about both Pita and the PT candidates to determine who, in my opinion, has the best leadership qualities. Pita as prime minister could perhaps somewhat reduce the accusations of "daughter just does exactly what father tells her". That could also be tactically smart for Thaksin, while Move Forward can also score some points as a party while their most progressive plans are put on ice. A win-win situation? If one can step over the pride that the winner will take the most prominent seat.
Good and clear overview. The video is highly recommended.
Thank you
My Thai friends agree with Tino about his third expectation.
When I said that the soldiers would not dare to do the same again, they laughed.
Just wait…
Dear Tina,
Thank you for this report.
A few notes.
1. Unlike in European democracies, an attempt is not made first to form a majority coalition, but a Prime Minister is elected in the first instance. This will have to collect at least 376. Because I don't get the impression that the senators are going to vote for a PT or MFP candidate (presumably they abstain from voting), unfortunately they don't stand a chance for the Premiership.
Incidentally, from my PT sources I have learned that Srettha will be nominated and not Thaksin's daughter.
2. I estimate the likelihood that Prayuth will be re-elected is high. If he gets the required 376 votes with the help of the senators, then the next steps can be taken.
– Start with a minority government.
– Dissolution of MFP or rather PT.
– invite the now elected ex-PT and ex-MFP to switch to the minority governing parties.
– Ensure a 2nd chamber majority in good time.
3. The new round of protests can begin.
Of course, there is a chance that both the new and old Prayuth parties will not reach the 25 seats and will not be allowed to propose a Prime Minister. In that case another Apirat is lurking. Apirat is very good friends with X (and also with Chuvit who makes life miserable for the BJT party). Prayuth would then get a Privy Council job & Prawit could retire and enjoy expensive watches.
Completely agree Peter, if PT and MFP are the winners, there are several solutions to get rid of them. And as we saw in 2019, people will then want to entice those representatives to switch to the "good" parties (think of well-filled envelopes, or that certain legal problems disappear like snow in the sun). In this way, a government could come up with the right views and, in the Thai way, look at itself in the mirror and see that everything is completely legitimate. Just as fresh as, for example, the last constitution or the previous elections... Stirring unrest, new elections, military intervention, etc. is always possible if the "clean" way does not work.
I am getting a better understanding of the political relations here in Thailand.
Little is said about voter fraud, only about buying votes. Something that I think is more difficult to have success with. Incidentally, I read today that one of the candidates of Pheu Thai is already accused of that. A setup?
And is there a sensible word to be said about the popular anger when the military invalidates or manipulates the election results by invalidating parties?
From 2014 can I remember the “attitude adjustments”? still remember. Is that the plan again?
Someone spoke of good conversations with elected members of banned parties, hence my question.
None of my Thai friends or acquaintances are interested in Prayuth or his aides from the current government.
I hope that the cautious line described here (with the crown jewels of MFP in the fridge) will continue.
If only because many people then have a little more to spend, although I am also afraid that prices will rise accordingly.
It is clear to me that progress is unstoppable. Like climate change I'm afraid.
Interesting to read, good to have you back Tino!
indeed,
Good to read something from tino again.
I only follow the political developments in Thailand sideways because it's a mess. And I'm not about it. And I certainly do not presume to explain and advise Thai people by pretending to know how the hares run in the misty clear Thai political field. (RobV)
What I make of it is that imho PPP, UNP and BJP are about continuing their existence at the top, PTP is busy bringing back a runaway former politician, MFP as the only more serious party is already getting all kinds of allegations against them , the DP also tries to make a contribution, and then there are still 2 left who are too small to have a finger in the pie. And none of those parties can yet be judged on their merits.
I also do not follow these developments because it is not clear to me what all those parties actually want to do with Thailand. What do their so-called party programs say about what policy they will pursue if they can form a government? Their main concern seems to be to conquer, preferably absolute power. Like that's democracy. But that democracy requires consensus and coalition? Oeng-Ing PTP is already calling out the two P's not wanting (Prayuth, Prawit) and is already seeding potential conflict, the PPP wants MFP's Pita off the scene, the BJP accuses a research firm of discrediting them by making their campaign unreasonable to find. And so everyone is just a little busy waving and slapping around, and especially with: the promise that things will get better. (It cannot be otherwise if this has been copied from the duo Rutte / Kaag).
But what idea do they have to rebuild Thailand's power structures? Only then are changes possible. You should not expect anything from the first 3 parties mentioned, the PTP does not dare to speak out, Pita MFP remembered a possibility and was immediately harassed.
And what will happen to develop Thailand's economy? Foreign investments fail to materialise, the total infrastructure is stalling, households are drowning in debt and the only answer is: we are raising the minimum wage. That scores. They think! But if the average debt per household is 400K ThB, a minimum daily wage of 450 baht (MFP) will not help, nor will the promise of a guaranteed monthly income of 20K baht per household (PTP). To reduce this amount to ThB 200k per year in the next sentence.
I'll see after May 14. I am not going to speculate on quarrels and backbiting, not on repetitions of events as is customary in Thailand (2006, 2014), nor on the option of a minority government that keeps the UNP in power, nor on the chances of a PTP/MFP /DP coalition. But since 1932 the constitution has been rewritten at least 20 times. Let's hope it's not a 21st time. Because that rewriting was largely a military inspiration.
The current constitution is also a military inspiration dear Soi, the 1997 constitution was actually the only civilian constitution. A is also something to note about that constitution, it was more of a constitution for the better middle class, see my article “The 'people's constitution' of 1997 that was lost” here on TB at the end of 2021.
Personally, I would prefer to shred the current constitution, based on the 1997 constitution, but with some adjustments that really meet the wishes of the population and with better guarantees that independent and neutral players really are. . Unfortunately, I don't see a real people's constitution, widely supported by the people and something that can proudly bear the name constitution for many years to come true.
Incidentally, I do not advise my Thai friends, we just talk about political wishes and expectations and I only point out that these will not all be fulfilled within 1 response period. It's simply a matter of trying to be realistic in order to avoid too much disappointment.
Dear Rob, nowhere do I say that the 2017 one does not have a military basis. On the contrary correct. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Thailand
But the fact also remains that more than 6 out of 10 voters adopted that constitution in a high turnout. The one from 1997 has lasted less than 10 years. Dumped in 2006 and replaced in 2007 with popular approval. Then: 2008 Thai democratic elections led to a government led by the democrat Abhisit, and in 2011 there was Thai democratic Yingluck. In all those years there was not a single attempt to recover from 1997, let alone one now. At the time, it was stipulated that the entire National Assembly would consist of 2 elected chambers, and this constitution was praised for its recognition of human rights. All with job approval. We'll see if PTP. MFP, DP have an eye for it. In short: we will see what happens and that there is no repeat of 2014/2017. That is all up to the Thai people, who historically always chose the strongest party afterwards.
That referendum stunk even more than the less pleasant proceedings surrounding the 2019 elections. It cannot be called democratic. People were not allowed to campaign against the referendum, and those few who did were thrown behind bars and faced various forms of intimidation. The message was also in good Dutch: “take it or leave it”: Prayuth would remain as NCPO dictator for a long time if the constitution did not pass, that constitution would be a new, clean start… It is the recurring story of intervene after the population makes the “wrong choice” in the voting booth, then let people know from above how it should actually be done. For the sake of beauty, people sometimes try to package this as “democracy Thai style”. You'd laugh about it, if it weren't all so sad.
So the question remains: how democratic will it be this time around the elections, aftermath and reforms?
Very good report, gives insight into what exactly is at stake next Sunday. More than worth watching.