Military rule is exacerbating divisions in Thailand
Two years after the coup of May 22, 2014, the Bangkok Post publishes a number of, most critical, articles about two years of junta and the prospects for the coming period. This is a commentary by Thitinan Pongsudhirak.
After two years of hope and expectation, it is clear that Thailand is as far from peace and reconciliation as it was before the military coup. In addition to the colour-coded divisions between civilian groups that have dominated Thai politics for the past 10 years, we are now suffering from the divide between military authorities and civilian forces that we last saw XNUMX years ago. As the junta's rule enters its third year, and possibly longer, it looks more and more like a flammable recipe for rising tensions and risks that can only be calmed by a legitimate government under popular sovereignty.
As domestic resistance mounts and international criticism intensifies, most of what went wrong can be attributed to the early days of the coup. When General Prayut Chan-o-cha and the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) seized power in May 2014, they brought calm and peace to many in Bangkok after six months of demonstrations against the regime of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her Pheu Thai Party who were under the influence of her expelled and fugitive brother, Thaksin.
At that time, many of us wanted to believe in change and we pretended it was a good coup even though all experience indicates that there is no such thing as 'a good coup' in Thailand. Two years later, it is unmistakable that the military pursue their own interests and entrench themselves for a longer period of time. The NCPO has no exit strategy and its determination to hold on to power for another five years and to oversee a XNUMX-year reform period in view of the succession will very likely increase the stakes and inexorably increase political risks.
Despite drafting the constitution whose fate will be decided in a referendum on August 7 followed by promised elections a year later, the ruling generals can rely on constitutional articles that give a senate of their own powers and on military-influenced institutions to control the then elected government to control. The constitution also allows for the appointment of a non-member of parliament as prime minister, which gives the military the option of continuing to govern themselves or through a puppet. And even if the draft constitution is rejected by referendum, the Prayut government or the NCPO could pull out an old similar version of a constitution to hold elections next year. Postponing the elections indefinitely will lead to a loss of face and make the junta a veritable military dictatorship.
Relying on their esprit de corps, their control over the high command and officers, the junta can only survive through more suppression of local resistance and the growing opposition to their rule. Tension and open conflict between the military junta and civil society is likely to increase as the day of the referendum approaches. After toppling two military dictatorships since the early XNUMXs, civil Thai society will not settle for continued NCPO rule.
When the NCPO seized power they made the mistake of not sharing their power with technocrats as they did in 1991-92 and 2006-07. A civilian-led cabinet in 1991-92 was a buffer, a source of knowledge and an exit strategy for the generals. In 2006-07, the junta appointed General Surayud Chulanont, a member of the Privy Counsel and a resigned commander-in-chief of the army, as prime minister to face pressure and demands. He held on to elections in December 2007 out of personal conviction despite the temptation to retain power, and so the coup ended.
One of the happiest people in Thailand is General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the leader of the coup in 2006. The December 2007 elections offered him an exit. He returned to a normal life, even having a political career in the 2011 elections. General Sonthi and his junta wanted to postpone the elections, but General Surayud did them a favor by sticking to the election date.
The NCPO doesn't really have an expiration date. The junta of generals, who used to command the barracks and now have to run a complex economy and government, may well be their own enemy if they continue their rule.
Some who originally supported the coup in 2014 now say they did not sign up for the current conditions, with Thailand isolated internationally, economic stagnation and simmering political malaise. Thai society has been endangered and divided along Thaksin's lines in recent years, but the prospect of extended military rule and the controversial constitution may well lead to a regrouping and recapture of lost territory.
Thailand is unlikely to achieve more political clarity and normalcy before the succession to the throne is complete. Until then, the maneuvering will continue. The junta has missed a great opportunity to bring about a reconciliation between the traditional elite of the old class around the military-royalist network and the voters with their deputies who want democratic rule.
After two years, it seems that the junta wants to continue their rule beyond the succession to the throne with alarming signs of tyranny and dictatorship that the bourgeois forces in Thailand will not accept. The way forward is dark, but it cannot be bright and clear as we see how the junta has taken over political life. Peace and political stability can only be achieved if the generals step aside in favor of a civilian-led compromise government that can bridge the gap between existing institutions and the still-fragile foundations of a popular government in the future. Only then can Thailand move forward.
Source: Translation article by Thitinan Pongsudhirak in the Bangkok Post, May 20, 2016
What a story from Thitinan Pongsudhirak, apparently he has a monopoly on wisdom. It would be better if everyone stuck to their own task, I agree with him or her, but I don't know political leaders who can jointly make something of this country and otherwise they should stand up now or remain silent forever.
Hi Jacques, what you say is very short sighted.
Reconciliation can only be achieved if the contracting parties talk to each other
be brought, which is not the case here
The general only knows it all, and the rest, lecturers, etc. are all stupid people
The general may be a good shot, but he has no training
To rule a complex country, and moreover the military belong in the barracks
And certainly not in politics, which they don't understand at all
And tuitkan certainly does not claim to have the wisdom in pact, but signals
What's wrong, and that's his right. I mean of course thitinan and no spout,
Misprint.
Dear Pilot, in my piece I say that the military should also do their job and doing politics is of a different order, so we have no differences in that and I agree with the writer. The fact that the important parties have not yet come closer to each other is not the fault of the military. They are all mature people who can come together on their own behalf and jointly develop a decent program. That's what needs to be done. This can lead to the current regime and then I think there will be more and faster willingness to relinquish power. First there must be a reasonable alternative. That's what I miss.
Jacques,
The military has banned all political activity. Those who start are locked up for a few days for 'attitude adjustment'. Don't follow the news?
Moderator: Please do not chat.
I don't see things going any worse with Thailand than for the junta. Ultimately, it is the money and the international investors see multinationals that determine the regime and policy. The junta only has to deal with petty details and keep people calm. With the resignation and indifference of the Thais, this is not too difficult a task.
In any case, the car dealers cannot keep up with the sale of the most expensive models…..and the new residential villages are springing up like mushrooms…My conclusion is that things are going very well in Thailand….with or without a junta.
dear tina,
Thailand will have to earn a democracy itself and the country is not that far yet.
Until then, the country will have to be governed by a powerful leader who ensures peace and security.
It is very good that there have been no fighting for two years now.
Security and peace is the first priority and there is now in Thailand.
It was not safe before this coup.
Bangkok is no longer a city of violence and uprisings.
In the Isaan, many villages were a stronghold of red shirts, who intimidated, stopped and harassed outsiders with checks and roadblocks.
It hasn't been for two years now.
All red flags have been removed from the houses and people have resumed normal life.
It would be nice if the population would focus on the development of the country through initiatives from the business community and universities, because this military government naturally lacks that knowledge.
The business community should now take the initiative to provide solutions for water regulation in Thailand, but also the environment, (solar panels) waste processing or rail and country roads in this peace time.
It is a pity that this does not happen, forcing the military to do this in a dictatorial way without being in harmony with business and universities.
If the population does not show any initiatives to develop the country, this country will hold a military government with the hope that at least peace and security will be maintained
Free democratic elections are not a solution for countries whose populations are so divided that population groups fight among themselves or do not want to unite to develop the country.
I often miss the alternative in your articles about this government, because free elections in Thailand so far mean that the population thinks of its own interests and not of the national interest, which causes division and revolts.
I look forward to reading your perspective in subsequent articles.
good regards from Josh
Hi Josh,
you save me work, I can't describe it better than what you say here. Congratulations, glad I'm not alone in thinking about this.
So far there is still no rapprochement between red and yellow. The military has tried to reconcile both sides, but neither side is giving any concessions.
The best Thailand can have right now is a junta that maintains the security of the country.
Those with their intellectual fencing and criticism that there is no democracy should first come up with a solution for growth and the general welfare in Thailand.
So far just a lot of blah blah blah.
If the constitution gives the military too much power, there will still be no democracy with the election and after the election.
Then the red shirts will never be able to form a government and will always have to remain in opposition.
The army and the yellow shirts together will have much more power in government than the red shirts.
The chance that the army with the red shirts will ever form a coalition against the yellow shirts seems almost zero to me.
As long as the real problems in this country are not recognized, named (the widening gap between rich and poor, the lack of a middle class, cronyism, patronage, corruption at all levels; bureaucracy, violence, lack of accountability, lack of quality thinking at all levels, low level of education), let alone that a start is made to REALLY tackle these problems (and that is no sinecure) all words about progress in this country are nonsense and/or demagoguery. Both democratically elected and non-democratic governments in this country have so far achieved nothing but some (sometimes temporary) symptom relief.
Either you are a Democrat or you are not. If one considers oneself a democrat, then it seems to me somewhat contradictory to justify everything that happens here, as a few here apparently try to do.
Slagerij van Kampen we are all pampered in democratic countries.
Our democratic countries cannot be compared to the democratic countries in Asia.
Apart from the past 19 military coups to date, it was already a miracle that Thailand was among them
non-democratic countries managed to maintain their kind of democracy for so long.
But a mock democracy rife with corruption, sliding inevitably into civil war, seems to me to be the worst possible scenario in this region.
It just depends on what situation you're talking about. There is no real democracy in any country in the world. Not even in the Netherlands. It looks a bit like democracy, but in fact it is not. Thailand has a lot of catching up to do in terms of democracy (if you compare it with Europe, for example). That goes with trial and error, as everywhere in the world. That the generals are now in power is not so bad in itself. Only a date must be set by Prayut on which the generals will retire.
Then the people can vote democratically, and there will be a government again that can rule as representatives of the country.
By that time, all those Thai institutions should be abolished with which you, as an opposition, can harass the government leaders. Just run normal opposition and abide by government decisions that are passed by majority vote.
That the generals now abuse their position of power to buy all kinds of toys for a lot of money, is of course crazy.
The current situation (military dictatorship) has only reinforced the peat fire that has been raging for years.
At first glance it seems pretty quiet and all, but I estimate the chance of a civil war to be quite high.
The chaos will break out when the succession to the throne comes up, which is why the soldiers remain where they are (as protectors of the elite and the establishment).
Thailand is being destroyed, Taksin was just a little boy.