Is Thailand sick?
In one of the last posts about politics in Thailand, I was challenged by RobV to state whether I think Thailand is sick and how the patient can be cured. Apparently RobV assumes that Thailand is sick. But: what is sick? If you are sick according to a doctor, or does it already start when you feel sick?
I learned from Tino that you can (should?) avoid medical check-ups if you feel well. Although you feel perfectly fine, such check-ups always find something that shouldn't be: a murmur here, a drop in blood pressure, a drop in cholesterol. And certainly when you get a little older, there are some defects in the body and the detection techniques are inexorable. As long as you're not really bothered by anything, there's really nothing wrong. Since this advice from Tino, I no longer go to my employer's annual (and free) check-ups.
Can a country be as healthy and therefore as sick as a person? Is the Netherlands sick? VVD voters think not, PvdA and CDA voters perhaps a little; PVV and FvD voters find the Netherlands really very sick. In short: being ill is not an absolute condition but a relative fact. And it therefore depends on WHO judges (from which perspective or ideal), WHO the doctor is and on the basis of which (reliable?) data or studies. And what should the country doctor look at: the democratic content of political discussions, the freedom of expression, the existence of elections for local and national parliaments, the human rights situation, the constitution?
Democracy
Often the word falls democracy in this context: a Greek invention (from δεμος, people and κρατος, power), fanning out to other areas (just look how big the empire of Alexander the Great, the Macedonian Empire was in 300 BC) and later taken over by the Romans. Rome had a senate (of 100-900 people) and Julius Caesar may be the boss, the emperor, he also had opponents in the elected senate. Countries that did not come under the sphere of influence of the Greeks or Romans (good or bad), which was later called Western influence (see the voyages of discovery and conquest of the Dutch, Spaniards, English and Portuguese), such as China and Japan, remained deprived for a long time of any form of public participation in government policy. Countries and peoples that came under the sphere of influence of the Moors, the Mongols or the Ottomans could only dream of it. And so, in 3000 years, a world gradually emerged with a very colorful mix of forms of government, from 1 party states with 1 ruler or a college of rulers (China, North Korea, Vietnam) to a parliamentary democracy with a king or president as head of state with widely varying powers. The president of the USA is supreme, the president of the Federal Republic of Germany is a political 'nobody'. Not to mention how actual power, de facto and/or de jure, is exercised. It doesn't always work out the way it says on paper; and besides formal leaders there are informal leaders.
Not easy
Some of the health challenges in Thailand are not new and not unique to Thailand. There are more countries, and not just in Asia, with more than less corrupt government (see the corruption index for countries), with a large gap between rich and poor, with a strong position of the military, with a constitutional monarchy, with manipulated parliamentary or presidential elections, with a 'middle income trap' and with an ailing education system. Of course, in 2019 you can compare Thailand politically and economically with a Western country like the Netherlands, but the differences in process are so great that it is virtually impossible to learn lessons from them. Or as suggested in one of the posts: a treatment plan for ailing Thailand. The Netherlands already had a States-General, a rudimentary form of participation, in 1572 and that is about 450 years ago. In all honesty, you cannot expect that a reasonably to well-functioning democracy in Thailand will suddenly come about in the next 20-25 years, where the same process in other countries has taken hundreds of years (and repeated blood, sweat and tears). Due to the increasing speed of developments and information about this, it will not take 450 years, but certainly more than about 5 years. The term of office of the Thai senate is hardly important in this respect. And what is a 20-year plan in a country's history? Not more than a mini-second.
Wat nu?
Perhaps it is not such a good idea to start from 'disease' but from the opposite, from health, from happiness. And 'fortunately' we know a lot more about that. The World Happiness Report 2019 (from the United Nations) shows that the Thais are not all that unhappy. Of the 156 countries involved in the study, Thailand ranks 52. The Netherlands is number 5 and Belgium number 18. Thailand scores high especially when it comes to social support and not so high on the item 'freedom to make your own choices'. So there is still something to improve on the happiness of the Thai population, but that is not news. But I don't think there is enough evidence that Thailand as a country is really sick. And if you want to call Thailand sick, there are at least 100 countries in this world where the population is less happy. Among them: South Korea, Japan, Portugal, Hong Kong, China and India.
From a quick look at the top 10 happiest countries in the world, I think two things stand out: they are countries with fairly stable forms of parliamentary democracy and countries with no violence (murders, crime, terrorist attacks). Those seem to me to be two subjects that the new Thai government can also work on. But I foresee some obstacles.
Meritocracy
One of the most pressing problems in the promotion of parliamentary democracy in Thailand is the attitude and quality of the people's representatives and their more immediate supporters. I will illustrate that with a few examples. In my opinion, the PPRP (the party that would like to see Prayut as prime minister) won the 2019 elections not on quality arguments but because of using the same tactics as Thaksin. This tactic involved 'loosening' some 40 popular local politicians (formerly MPs of the Pheu Thai), campaigns in these areas to help the defecting MPs, a number of populist measures aimed at the poor and – because he was not a party leader was – to keep Prayut out of all discussions and debates. There, with his character and background, he could only shoot bucks. Thaksin used the same tactic when he launched his completely politically inexperienced sister Yingluck as leader of the Pheu Thai in 2011. She was not allowed a public debate with Abhisit.
A large proportion of Thai voters still vote for individuals rather than political parties or ideas. Thaksin had that and Prayut understood that well. But popularity is no guarantee of quality. Unfortunately. As a teacher, I can make myself very popular with the students by canceling half my classes and letting everyone pass my course. But I belie the quality. Popularity must be worked on during the government's term: populist measures prevail over structural, long-term solutions (for example in the field of anti-corruption, education, income policy and the environment). And more money (directly and indirectly) to their own supporters and clan than to the losers. In short: the jealousy and the seeds for demonstrations and other kinds of violence are more or less built in: “the winner takes it all. The looser has to fight.” Recent opinion polls show that a majority of Thais feel the same way.
While I was working on this post, one of my ex-students sent me some videos. They are about the human rights situation in China and how China chooses its leaders according to the Confucian method: selection (of the best, based on proven successes) and then letting the people choose the leader. If Thailand is so China-friendly, can the Chinese help introduce this meritocracy in Thailand in the next 10 years in exchange for rice, longon and durian?
Sources:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPiR71JWguU
https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedonische_Rijk
https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senaat_(Rome)
https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Staten_van_Holland_en_West-Friesland
"A healthy person is someone who has not been examined enough." If you investigate someone thoroughly enough you will almost always find something, but of course usually something relatively unimportant. In addition, someone can feel very healthy and still be seriously ill. You can be sick and still be happy. So many combinations are possible.
Is Thailand sick? It is a pity that Chris de Boer does not really answer that question and I challenge him to do so. He gives a lot of theory and detours, but hardly addresses the question itself. How sick or healthy is Thailand on a scale of 1 (very sick) to 10 (very healthy)? Then we can discuss what is sick and what can be done about it. It is not all relative, there are quite objective measures to measure the health of a country.
I place Thailand on the scale from sick to healthy in place 5. And if someone says 4 or 6, I can justify that too. I suspect we can all pretty much agree on the healthy aspects of Thailand. Public health is doing well, there are fewer and fewer people below the poverty line, and the economy is growing moderately to reasonable. But there are also many unhealthy conditions such as little public control at the national and local level, few freedoms of expression and information, no equal rights and a large inequality of wealth and income. I think most Thais know very well how the fork is in the stem and can agree with this summary.
When asked 'Is Thailand sick?' I would say 'yes' if I had to choose like on an exam. I prefer to point out the aspects that are sick and need improvement. In any case, Thailand is not really healthy.
Thank you Chris. A very readable piece that gives me recognizable and also some new views on Thailand.
As many here indicate, my Thai wife also avoids politics as a topic of conversation. Both the small close-by politics, even when corruption manifests itself, and the big national politics, even when it comes to the watch or submarine scandal.
I am interested in my second country of residence, even if it is not my country of birth. That is why I also follow the political events in Thailand. Mainly to understand. Admittedly, that's not easy. I now know that in Thailand nothing is what it seems 🙂
Not a hair on my head that thinks of "meddling" in Thai politics. I also believe that I am a guest here. I want to stay that way, at least as long as I can live with my Thai wife.
No, Thailand would never have become my country of residence if it had not been my wife's country of birth. In my opinion, the political order is not in order. For example, numerous institutions are unable to do their work independently and to the highest quality as it should be. As far as I know, this problem arises mainly in the field of public law. Fortunately for the Thai citizen and the farrang less in private law. Face-to-face, being confronted with increasing legal uncertainty would prompt me to leave Thailand.
I believe that the public sector, say the country's administration, is struggling with many serious illnesses. Something you have already pointed out in many writings. Is the country sick? Then the question first arises: What is the country? The nation? The population? The territory? The king? The army? The sanga? The elected of the people? The bureaucratic apparatus? The richest families? Some combination?
Meritocracy in Thailand on the Chinese model? That's comparing apples to lemons. Cultivating inequality is ingrained in Thai society. Selecting the best and most talented is impossible in Thailand because a strong social stratification is ingrained in all kinds of systems. Not least in education. The best from the top layer will be in Thailand. The best of the happy few, the chosen ones. Not the best of the 70 million. The Chinese model in Thailand already crashes on that in advance.
Maybe I sometimes go wild here on the blog because I could talk very well with my love at home about political and social affairs regarding Thailand (and the Netherlands). Healthy discussions, certainly didn't always agree, but I was able to say what I thought about a better world.
Sometimes therein lies the problem.
The idea of what a better world is differs per person, just see the wars of faith and interest that are being fought.
Of course there must be people who think out of the box, but the vast majority behave like a school of fish. In that school there is also hierarchy and there are weaker ones who have to make do with less food, but the ultimate goal is not to be caught by an outsider as in the human world colonization or war.
If you really want a change, you will have to mobilize the Thai, but that will not work in advance as a foreigner.
What then is the point of trying like a Don Quichote to promote left-wing ideas on a blog?
My pieces about freedom, democracy and human rights are not just leftist ideas. Although, of course, there are parties on the right flank who find all this posturing.
Since there are practically 0 Thai readers, write those pieces about history, society, democracy, etc. for the Dutch with a connection to Thailand. But if the readers do not appreciate my pieces, they should report this under a blog. If no reader is waiting for it then I can stop. I will keep writing as long as there are positive reactions (something learned again, etc.). Because for those I it.
It also doesn't hurt to write because there may be things that people don't know and especially continue with it.
Stimulating is good for the discussion, but I doubt whether it helps Thailand.
These remain important topics that should certainly be written about. Even if Dutch people who live or travel in Thailand find this unimportant and prefer to get their beer and sex on time and not worry about anything else. The Thai cannot openly write about this without risk of prosecution. So let's bring it to the attention of the Dutch readers.
All opinions, from the left or the right, as long as they are well formulated and written down with respect, are certainly allowed to be expressed.
Quote:
'What's the point of trying like a Don Quixote to promote left-wing ideas on a blog?'
I actually see more people promoting right-wing ideas on this blog. Thailand is far from being fit for a democracy! Long live the dictatorship!
Yes right?
Indeed, that could be the conclusion.
This dictatorship is the result of an incompetent democracy and more is being done than many people think.
I never hear the opponents about the improvements in legislation or praise for adapting the infrastructure so that the country is prepared for the future.
Complaining is a left thing and that doesn't rhyme with Thailand.
Every citizen is expected to be independent and if you become a civil servant it makes life a lot simpler and the larger that group the easier society becomes.
Sometimes rest is better than bullshit
Dear Johnny, you are wrong. The time of Don Quichotte is already 4 centuries behind us. We now live in a time when globalization has fully taken hold. Thai people also use Facebook, Line, Instagram. Therein lies the contemporary power of mobilizing people. Make no mistake: the majority of Thai women, not only in NL, see absolute differences between NL dealing with social, economic and political problems, and the way in which solutions are sought in TH. For those Thai women, we, their NL partners, are frames of reference. And what we strive for is not leftist ideas, but support for essential freedoms. All those TH-farang women in turn communicate with their TH contacts. There is more discussion among themselves about many things than you realize.
I'm sure they are talking about more important issues than surcharges and visa requirements. Because that often concerns the simple ideas that many on this blog master.
With probability bordering on certainty, I see the Thai power ladies make no difference within 10 years compared to the current situation.
You can only look at Thailand through your own glasses. And after all that looking and observing you make your own judgement. I look at TH as I was brought up in NL on the basis of norms and values that I received from parents, teachers, friends and colleagues and strengthened by masses of experiences. And then I don't need an "academic" account to say that Thailand is sick. Because what is disease? Illness is a state of imbalance. A state in which processes that would normally ensure that equilibrium returns are missing. And that constant imbalance means that Thailand is unable to adapt to changing circumstances. Thailand is kept in an imbalance by those in power who act on the basis of self-interest and contempt. And that manifests itself in a semi-dictatorial regime.
Can a democratic regime eradicate this disease? Of course, there is nothing else. Look at South Korea or Japan where that system was brought. Look at Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, the Philippines and Indonesia: where the opposite happens and army green is also the dominant and oppressive color.
Can a semi-dictatorship lift that disease? No, because she manipulates, and rules on the basis of fear and oppression. People shrink and symptoms worsen.
There is a very simplistic discussion going on on this blog that democracy does not work in Thailand, after all, it is nothing in the Netherlands either. Those people don't even look beyond their noses, because they believe in their own story. Usually prompted by a shortage of finances, which they hope against better judgment that the Netherlands will remedy this. But look openly and without resentment at what was going on last weekend alone in the Netherlands and Belgium, but also in Italy, France, England and Germany. Anyone who does not see the changes and the gains for democracy here is blind to see, deaf to hear, and has to start doubting his own judgment. Thailand needs the same democratic impulses as the EU has for the past 75 years. Thailand needs to grow up and get rid of the obstacles and impulses to that sick imbalance. That is only possible through democratic processes.
Chris talks about a meritocracy as medicine. Shame! A totally wrong medicine, because in Thailand there is only power based on origin. Meritocracy as a power based on merits will not produce any form of solidarity. Those who become powerful through talent, education, work, and effort will only want more. This is already the case in mature democracies: hence the enormous dislike that the EU nationals have for the enriching elite, and who were now finally able to slap their fingers through the elections. See also the rise of populist movements, for example in Italy and the Yellow Vests in France.
No, let Thailand first acknowledge that she is ill, define a diagnosis, and then draw up her own treatment plan. Until then, we would do well to monitor Thailand very critically.
A perfect story, RuudB. I can't put it better. And again: that's how most Thais think about it.
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are Asian countries where you can see that democracy can also bring progress in Asia. That is also possible in Thailand. But nothing is perfect.
You name three countries where the population is on average unhappier than the Thais. (see the World Happiness Report).
The lesson should be: a reasonable to well-functioning democracy is not a sufficient condition for a happy population.
Let me add something that has to do with those western and eastern glasses.
I'm pretty sure there's a pretty good consensus between most Thais and most Westerners about what's wrong with Thailand and what needs to be improved. Of course there are some differences in that assessment, diagnosis and therapy, but they are not that big in my experience. Of course it depends on whether you ask an Isan rice farmer or a rich, highly educated ultra-royalist….
Thanks for your extensive writing Chris, I appreciate that, can I try to see how you or someone else looks at things and possibly learn something from that. It's just a pity that I don't know yet whether you think Thailand is sick, and if so or not, how well or badly the patient is doing.
Your treatment plan (?) seems in a nutshell to introduce the Chinese system of talents taking charge. Something should also be done about education, where critical thinking, asking questions and such things are not exactly widely encouraged. But there is certainly more to think about what can be improved in education.
I really wonder what people are doing..one can never look into the soul and feel what the Thai feel….we are guests in this beautiful country and have no right to vote nor the right to point the Dutch finger…I Don't judge me in any way, no matter how academically approached it is.
But look at the chaos in the Netherlands there it goes to a majority of comedians, liars, pee dolls and narcissists who want to (go) rule us there…
If there is one country in the world where life is good, and where things are done according to democratic rules, it is the Netherlands: education for all, health care for all, the right to assembly, association, expression and freedom of the press. An infrastructure that will delight southern and eastern neighbors. An economy that runs like a charm. Opportunities for everyone if you want and do your best. And you are encouraged to do so. Chris would say: a completely meritocratic system that even surprises China. A system also where comedians, liars and narcissists have their place without being judged and are invited to attitude conversations. A country where the past 2 elections have caused shifts. Rarely hit a more transparent country than on the North Sea. Pee dolls? They seem to be mainly concerned with their frustration incontinence in another country on the other side of the world because there are no rights for them because they are guests, and therefore report every 3 months, and the 4th time after income tests again year.
A visit to the Aliens Police in Amsterdam could open the eyes of many….even a female Professor with the nationality of the US who is married to a Dutchman, has to learn Dutch and follow an integration course..why not report regularly or an income test undergone for a residence status or compulsory insurance against medical expenses…nothing with it by the way….
It is striking that everything is viewed through the Western lens again, and an opinion is given based on the values that we have built up there.
It is useful to read books by Kishore Mahbubani. This Singaporean scientist/diplomat has been a UN representative twice, and has written several books about Asia and the Asian way of looking at the world.
Be sure to read his latest book “Has the West lost it”, or watch a summary during this talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcAdFKsdweU.
I think some reflection is appropriate for us Westerners, because I dare to say “Western civilization is sick” when we look at the incredible division in the US, the European elite looking away from the consequences of mass immigration, or the efforts of globalists to use the climate hysteria to gain control over the citizenry.
I no longer know whether democracy, as it is propagated in Brussels, for example, is still the solution and whether the models of, for example, Singapore (quite autocratic 1-party system) do not work much better for the citizens.
I don't see 'western' and 'eastern' glasses. Which is already a simplification given the differences between, for example, the US and the Netherlands or Poland. Or between the individuals there. Watched the video and I wouldn't label that as 'Oriental Glasses'. Just his substantiated vision that I can agree with a lot.
I also don't understand why the US (and many European countries hobbling behind it) are constantly messing around in the Middle East again. Yes, the oil and something about Israel. And we also know that in this global village we need each other. So we have to work together with Africa and other continents and countries as well. That is why we always have to keep talking, we have things like the UN for that (where the permanent council is really outdated, an open door, but those members don't want to give up their power just like that). Talk and stay together. Between countries. But also at street level. And that's where the universal rights/desires of human rights and democracy come from. Listening to each other, discussing together, not being tortured or killed because of a different opinion, that is not something typically Western.
Although it is typically human that there are power-hungry idiots who only think about me, want to claim power, want to impose their will and do not want to hear or take others' sounds seriously. Such dictatorial, selfish behavior is not sustainable in the long run. That is why the approach of the Thai rulers is not tenable and that is why, in my opinion, Thailand is lacking. After a revision with human rights and democracy, it is then up to the people themselves to set the course. It is certainly not up to me or anyone else to say whether or not there should be a social safety net, how big or small, what form, etc. The people (representatives) in Thailand have to figure that out themselves. Of course they can ask their neighbors anywhere in the world, together we learn from each other, we share knowledge and experience. Again on all kinds of scales. So we have to talk to each other, discuss. Put yourself in others' shoes, don't assume you're right.
Dear Goort, you are making the same fallacy here as many others who preceded you. The reasoning is that things are wrong in the west, and in NL in particular, so it doesn't matter how things are done in the east. Take Chris: is China a meritocracy if that country stores the behavior of its citizens in databases via facial recognition, and punishes unpleasant behavior? Is a Singaporean autocracy preferable if it dictates to Google, Twitter and Facebook what kind of news to bring. https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/04/09/singapore-bepaalt-straks-wat-waar-en-niet-waar-is-a3956243
That is why I advise you to click on the link of an NRC article about Kishore Mahbubani. Because this is what he says about the West: “…..the West has made an enormous contribution to progress in the world in recent centuries. Science, technology, the Enlightenment. If the West hadn't been so successful, the rest of the world wouldn't have been either. The rest of the world can send the West a thank you.”
And this about the EU: “this is the time for Europe! The region most experienced in balancing various international interests and creating multilateral institutions; that is the EU.”
It is a pity that Europe itself no longer takes the lead in taking the power blocs US and China in tow. But who knows: this year a new generation will enter Brussels.
Forgot to include the link to the April 2018 NRC article. Hereby: https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2018/04/27/het-westen-moet-macht-leren-delen-met-andere-landen-a1601063
Peter, please stop commenting. There is no room here for political discussions and if someone crosses the line, 'they' will soon be at our door.