Will it be chaos in Bangkok today?
How many people can the opposition party Democrats mobilize today to demonstrate against the controversial amnesty proposal? 'City braces for amnesty chaos' headlines the Bangkok Post ominously.
The Democrats are counting on tens of thousands, Prime Minister Yingluck's deputy secretary-general on seven to eight thousand at the most. Police are stationing two companies at Samsen station in Bangkok, where the Democrat rally is being held, and keeping 36 companies in reserve.
Other hotspots are Uruphong, where anti-government demonstrations have been going on for days, and Lumpini park. Small scattered rallies are also expected elsewhere in the city, including Silom, with the aim of disrupting traffic.
The government has given the green light to provincial governors to enact the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Act if disturbances arise there. Minister Charupong Ruangsuwan (Internal Affairs) counts on them to 'prevent, not to solve a problem' and prevent government buildings from being occupied and public infrastructure from being disrupted.
The Center for the Administration of Peace and Order (Capo) has called on security agencies across the country to avoid disruption to public services such as electricity, piped water, telecommunications networks and airports. A Capo spokesperson expects the protests to continue until November 11 when the International Court of Justice issues a ruling in the Preah Vihear case.
Democratic MP Suthep Thaugsuban held a press conference in front of the statue of King Rama VII in parliament yesterday (pictured). He called on the population to come to Samsen station. Suthep said the rally will continue until the government and Pheu Thai withdraw the amnesty proposal.
“The government has abused its mandate to grant absolution to former Prime Minister Thaksin through the amnesty law. When we allow the government and [government party] Pheu Thai to go their own way, the country will be stripped of principle and sink into dictatorial forces whose purpose is to serve their families and connections without concern for the people.”
Today and tomorrow, parliament will debate the controversial amnesty proposal. It was already approved by parliament at first reading, but subsequently amended by a parliamentary committee. The amnesty now applies not only to persons detained for political offenses since the military coup in September 2006, but also to the army, authorities and protest leaders. Former Prime Minister Thaksin supports the amended proposal and has ordered the Pheu Thai party to vote for the proposal.
The Red Shirts oppose the change because former Prime Minister Abhisit and Suthep, who are held responsible for the 2010 deaths, escaped; anti-government groups are also opposed because the proposal would exempt Thaksin from prosecution. Thaksin was sentenced to 2008 years in prison in 2 for abuse of power. The proposal would also allow him to reclaim the 46 billion baht seized from him.
(Source: Bangkok Post, October 31, 2013)
Photo homepage: Abhisit receives flowers from supporters to encourage him for today.
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The current situation is complicated but also has comic elements, if you want to see it.
1. The Democrats, part of the red shirt movement (perhaps the hard core that is against Abhisit and Suthep) and the relatives of victims are (almost) all against the new amnesty law for various reasons. That is why they demonstrate against the law, but not collectively. As long as you write general slogans on your banner (such as “I AM FOR JUSTICE”) that would still be possible, but a slogan such as “I want Thaksin back” is of course not possible at the Democrats' demonstration today.
2. It is remarkably quiet in the army camp. General Prayuth has repeatedly proclaimed that the army is under democracy, but the parliamentary system of 'check-and-balances' added to the weak leadership of Yingluck (also as Defense Minister) does not seem to work. Forwarding the adopted amnesty law to the King for signature could be the proverbial last straw.
3. It is also remarkably quiet on the side of the companies that have suffered considerable damage due to all the occupations, demonstrations and arson over the past 7 years. I mention here the shopping malls (Central World, MBK, Century One), both airports and the hotels in the city center. So far, insurance companies have paid for the damages, pending the conviction of the guilty. It seems that little has been done in 7 years to track down the guilty parties (reluctance, incompetence?). If all potentially guilty parties are granted amnesty, the insurance companies will submit their claims to parliament (perhaps jointly and severally liable) and the government. Perhaps one of the reasons why Yingluck continues to insist that the amnesty law is a matter for parliament and NOT the government. He officially has no opinion. If the Pheu Thai loses the next elections, the problem will be on the plate of the new parliament. government. Or: wouldn't it be a nice gesture for Thaksin to pay his 46 billion Baht to all these insurance companies?
4. Both the Democrats (in the lead) and the Pheu Thai (not so fanatical) believe that Thailand is within its rights (and not Cambodia) in the matter of the temple. The Democrats - when they governed - even suffered some shootings and deaths and injuries. Of course, they cannot claim that they are in the wrong. The Pheu Thai is different. They presented themselves nationalistically to the outside world, but everything indicates that the government is preparing for a defeat in the court in The Hague. In my humble opinion, the friendship between Hun Sen (the Cambodian Prime Minister) and Thaksin has a lot to do with this. After his narrow election victory (with allegations of fraud), Hun Sen is in great need of a positive achievement that he can put on his coattails. His (golf) friend Thaksin gets him this by promising that everything will end in good peace; knowing that Thailand was weak in this legal affair from the start. In return, Thailand and Cambodia will soon reach a compromise on oil and gas extraction. Mind my words….
here from the "besieged" camp. For days, some roads around parliament have been fully occupied with Thai riot police, riot police, all kinds of detention vans, tow trucks, minibuses and police from all over the world - who are mainly doing nothing. Large stones (such as along NS platforms) at all intersections. This morning there was even more of the same, from other regions.
This right along the edge of what Bovorn, where every day hundreds/100s of people in black come to pay their last respects to the recently deceased patriarch.
Especially the extremely necessary provisioning of all those police brings work for many people.