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Home » Economy » Thailand floods: an economic catastrophe (video)
Thailand floods: an economic catastrophe (video)
Water reaches SAI MAI! This morning I received an email that the water had reached a village in SAI MAI. Residents were called upon to take action. Stuff has to go to the first floor and cars are driven to safer places. Couldn't connect further. It is now 8 o'clock in the Netherlands.
hello dear friends,
It is indeed doom and gloom with that high water. It is not easy for some
understand things. Whatever you read about damage to the economy, it has to
be big? mega big. but the rate of the thai bath remains the same?
how bad is it in thailand? or is the whole financial world blind and stupid.
who knows, may wake me up.
The exchange rate of the Thai Baht is fully linked to that of the US dollar.
If the US dollar becomes more expensive for us, the Baht will also become more expensive.
For 35 years following the end of World War II, the Baht was pegged directly to the US dollar, but temporarily became a floating currency from 1980 to 1985. The baht was partially pegged again to US dollar beginning in 1985, and a sudden devaluation of the currency became the primary triggering event for the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. The baht has since been returned to being a floating currency.
I find myself in this response. the others only surprise me. But nothing explains the real question: Why doesn't the Bath plummet in a national disaster like this?
Why didn't the Japanese currency fall after that much worse tsunami?
Why did it even reach its highest level ever at the end of August?
The Bath may be pegged to the dollar but has not fully tracked the dollar in recent weeks. I only make daily calculations of the Bath and keep an eye on the euro / dollar all day.
I'll give my opinion for a better one, but I think the THB is pegged to a mix of USD, Euro and Yen. I don't mind the relationship.
That is not true. It is certainly not pegged to the euro or yen. Only with the dollar. And as I wrote above, it has deviated slightly from the dollar in recent weeks.
Next year I will start a website about the stock market, and will also pay attention to the euro/bath there. With my daily calculations I can see when the bath is running.
Pegged to the Dollar but it deviates ?? Very interesting topic that apparently confuses a number of people, especially me. Can't find anywhere on the internet that the Bath is linked to any other currency. So my modest question, which is certainly not intended to be negative, is “who is Gert G?” “What expertise?” so that next year we will all indeed read his web page.” Is there a link somewhere to an official agency that explains the matter and confirms the link. ?
Thanks in advance for info, as I am also very surprised at the course of events in disasters like this
This is from years of observation and experience with the euro/dollar/bath. You probably won't find anything about this on the internet. Price movements after disasters are often impossible to fathom. It is a very different market, the currency market. I have been trading on the stock exchanges for 35 years. develop systems for trading. Next year I will bring one of my systems to the Internet via the website. I worked on this for three years and did a test run last year.
If something interests me, I'll find out everything myself and don't rely on an article or an assertion from others.
And that the bath now deviates could have to do with this disaster.
With your 35 years of experience, you certainly know more about it than others. The bank of Thailand can still learn something from it. So thanks again. You got all the shouters down. Your last comment in particular “never rely on someone else's statement” struck me.
As said, we wait, very subtly, for your webpage. Rest my case.
This blog is fun!
just on the 5 o'clock news here, Don Muang Airport is also expected to be flooded tonight
The baht has not been pegged to the dollar for nearly 30 years.
The bht itself has become and remains a strong stablecoin
good value now. When it was linked to the baht tot
1973. 1 dollar was then 20 bht. In 1997, Thailand got an economic one
crisis and then 1 dollar was worth 52 bht at the lowest point. Last year
this time we received much more dollars for 1 euro than now and much less baht.
Thought $1.60 at 39 bht. Now the dollar is 1.38 and the baht is 42.60. Big difference!
It is indeed linked. Do you follow the bath and the dollar every day? Otherwise this is a statement taken out of thin air. Next year I will mention it on my website with support and resistance. As soon as the website (World-Exchange-Profitmaker.com) is ready I will report it here.
I like it GerG. You get what you want. Then how do you explain 1 year ago? And all year round?
Just whapped with that banker. He will also be in Pattaya next week.
Will he explain it to you.Vrijdagavond Oct 28 Lovely corner soi 7 on the corner Beach
Road we are. You are very welcome and 1st beer is of course mine!
@GerG - as others have pointed out, it is complete nonsense that the Baht is pegged to the US$. My income is in US$ and my expenses are mainly in Baht, and unfortunately I face currency risk on a daily basis due to exchange rate fluctuations. Over the past 4 years, the Baht has appreciated about 10% against the US$. the RMB and the HK$, on the other hand, are pegged to the US$, even though relatively small fluctuations are possible there.
I tracked the dollar exchange rate for a while
On 8-01-2008 the dollar exchange rate was 33,12
On 18/3/2008 at 31,30
On 20/3/2009 at 35,23
On 26/3/2010 at 32,31
And the euro exchange rates certainly did not move up and down in parallel.
So the answer seems pretty clear to me
Who really knows?? Bath hasn't been linked to anything for years and years?? Independent strong currency. Where is the real expert who can explain it?
I think you give the right answer yourself, Ferdinand.
Since 2 July 1997, Thailand has adopted the managed-float exchange rate regime, of which the value of the Baht is determined by market forces. The Bank of Thailand would intervene in the market only when necessary, in order to prevent excessive volatilities and achieve economic policy targets. The floating regime enhances flexibility and efficiency in monetary policy implementation and increases confidence of domestic and international investors.
Major sources of reference include:
1) World Currency Yearbook (WCY)
2) IMF Annual Report on Exchange Arrangement and Exchange Restriction (IMF)
3) Ariff, Mohamed. 1991. The Pacific Economy: Growth and External Stability. North Sydney: Allen & Unwin Pty Ltd. (Ariff)
I seem to remember that I mentioned that in a comment at the beginning. The THB is a floating currency.
True, but GerG doesn't seem easily convinced. I think I'll do it again with source reference. The IMF seems to me to be an organization with expertise in this field. 😉
It is indeed nice to see that people are sure that it is the dollar! Unless one surfs the internet a bit, one can read that it has not been linked since 1973. I know at least from someone who works at Standard Chartered as a banker in Dusseldorf and Hong Kong and he also happens to be married to a Thai woman.
I don't go off the internet I watch what really happens every day and sometimes even every hour.
Then the whole world can scream that it is not so, or just hearsay or read it in an article on the internet. The reality turns out to be different. I would say follow him is a month on this website
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/13/12/intraday.stm
Are you an economist or working in the financial sector?
The banker laughs at you and I'd like to leave it at that.
Just follow him from the past year! Then you will
see that your theory is wrong. We're not getting there
over, it was nice. I trust Alex the banker, sorry!
The banker can laugh at me. I don't think highly of these people.
And if Alex is your banker I'd say good luck with this banker.
If my theory doesn't make sense to you, show me.
Thank you for the invite 28 Oct. but I am not in Thailand then.
1) too bad you are not in Thailand that day.
2) we agree for once, I don't like those greedy bankers either
especially those Americans who are to blame for the whole crisis.
3) delve a bit into the bank I mentioned to you, because it has its
headquartered in Hong Kong and has neither grazed nor is in financial
problems and has not needed money from the government!
4) Your theory is also wrong as the baht has been stable all along, even now
with this drama going on in thailand and the dollar, is it stable? Seems like
a yoyo that dollar and have previously given an example of the dollar/bht rate
to the euro. If you don't want to see it and suffer from tunnel vision, then stop it.
5) Don't worry about my finances, that's fine and that at 43 years old
age.
And now it's been nice, if you're in Thailand another time, that beer will stand.
Dear GertG, I think everyone is happy that we now have such an expert on the blog with so much knowledge and persuasiveness. One that keeps itself far from all those other stubborn screamers.
Too bad, on the link you provide I only see rates, nothing about a formal peg of the Bath to the Dollar. I also called Mrs Yingluck herself about this, she knew nothing about it and was also too busy with water management.
Perhaps we should first define the concept of “linking” in this context.
But ... I am sure that we will get all of that (and concepts such as "him", "support" and "resistance") explained in detail by you on your web page WE Profitmakers, which will be published next year. Don't forget to mention its launch, eh!
Is it free? (Ultimately, we all want to make a profit).
In the meantime, perhaps some time for that offer from Marcos for that beer?, I would like to hear the report of that meeting.
@GerG – the humor is on the street, or in this case on the digital highway. You start with 'I'm not leaving the internet, I'm looking at what really happened' and then close with a reference to an article on the internet. 😉
Another nice website is that of OANDA.com. For enthusiasts you can compare all currencies up to 5 years ago (historical exchange rates)
Thanks Harry, indeed OANDA.COM is a very nice site.
Sorry frankfurt haha. not ddorf!
Crisis on the foreign exchange market: consequences for the Thai baht and euro rate
Maybe a little more on topic. Our old sick grandmother was surprised last night at 4 o'clock by flooding water in Bang Bua Thong / Rangsit suburb of Bangkok. During the first few hours it only seeped in in centimeters, but in the afternoon it was shoulder high. She has fled to children who are (still) dry in a part of a nearby neighborhood.
Oma 2, lives in a beautiful residential area behind the Futurepark, Dreamworld. The water is flowing there now too. Combat with sandbags.
In Rangsit/White House village. Family reports this morning that the ink red water is pouring into the houses. In addition, snakes have been spotted everywhere
Overall family hit hard. Stand helpless.
Incidentally, the entire gigantic complex of future park, which yesterday proudly offered free parking to victims, as well as dozens of other chain stores such as Big-C, Home Pro, etc., etc., are closed and are fighting the flooding.
In that area, several roads and highways from Bangkok are impassable, especially for smaller cars. Unfortunately, the high-altitude toll-way also ends there, so it offers no soul either.