News from Thailand – November 27, 2013

Violence may be inevitable. Suthep has created the conditions for a 'non-democratic intervention' [military coup?] to resolve the political conflicts. This is what Minister Chaturon Chaisaeng (Education) says in response to the occupation of government buildings by anti-government groups.

Those occupations, he said, violated the promise of a non-violent protest, but "a large number of people still support the protest leaders." "Protest leaders have succeeded in consolidating popular anti-government sentiment."

Chaturon says Suthep's refusal to call off the protest, even if Prime Minister Yingluck resigns or dissolves the House of Representatives, will stand in the way of any solution through democratic means. "What he is demanding is more than what the government can do within the limits of the constitution." [The expression 'what he demands' is not further explained.]

Suthep Thaugsuban is the man leading the Democrat rally on Ratchadamnoen Avenue. On Monday, he occupied the Ministry of Finance. He has called for the occupation of all ministries and Provincial Houses. Suthep was Deputy Prime Minister in the (previous) Abhisit cabinet. He has given up his parliamentary seat to have his hands free for the protests. An arrest warrant has been issued against him.

“Occupation of government property is a crime,” said Paradorn Pattanatabut, secretary general of the National Security Council. He accuses Suthep of taking his act of civil disobedience too far. Initially, the rallies were justified in a sense [in protest against the controversial amnesty proposal], they were peaceful and within the bounds of the law. The government was at a disadvantage then, but now the government has the upper hand.

According to Paradorn, many people will withdraw. But Sathit Wongnongtoey, one of the action leaders at Ratchadamnoen, doesn't believe that. "The protesters continue to peacefully take over government buildings."

– The US and the UK each issued a statement yesterday urging that the protests be resolved peacefully. Washington asks protesters to show restraint as they storm government departments.

The US is concerned about rising political tensions, a State Department spokesman said. “Violence and the occupation of public or private property are not acceptable ways to resolve political differences. The best way is a peaceful dialogue that strengthens democracy and the rule of law.' The UK and the European Union expressed similar views.

Twenty-three countries have now issued travel advice for Thailand. Two of those countries even advise their nationals to postpone their travel if it is not strictly necessary. The other advice includes the warning to avoid the rally locations.

Representatives from 56 countries and six international organizations were briefed on the current situation at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday. It was explained why on Monday the special emergency law, which was in force for three districts in Bangkok, was extended to the entire city plus two adjacent districts.

– Prime Minister Yingluck wonders what the army will do if the protests escalate further. This says a source 'close to the prime minister', according to the newspaper. “In the end, soldiers choose the nation. The army does not take sides, but it may have to do something when faced with pressure or a dangerous situation.”

Remarkably, at least according to the newspaper, the army set up a temporary headquarters at the First Infantry Regiment (Royal Guard) on Vibhavadi Rangsit Road when protesters demonstrated in front of the army base on Ratchadamnoen Avenue. Although they later left, Army Commander Prayuth Chan-ocha and his staff have not returned. The move plus the military's involvement in previous coups fuel speculation about what the military is up to.

Army spokesman Thanatip Sawangsaeng denied yesterday that the move has a hidden purpose. Commander and city will return as soon as the situation there is normal. Officers working on Ratchadamnoen Avenue have to enter through the back as Dharma Army protesters block the front.

The government has no plans to expel protesters at the Ministry of Finance and the Budget Bureau. 'Let them go on. We'll wait until they get tired of it," says a security source. The military has also said it will not intervene.

– One then there was yesterday it censor debate in the House of Representatives, a kind of interpellation requested by the opposition Democrats. Party leader Abhisit asked Prime Minister Yingluck to make a political decision after the debate [which ends today], thereby easing tension.

“The protesters are suffering from a crisis of confidence. Many people have rallied in recent weeks because they cannot accept that the prime minister works for her own interests and those of her boyfriends.'

Prime Minister Yingluck (pictured) said the opposition's criticism was "unfair" given the government's performance over the past two years. Furthermore, there is little to quote from the debate, because everything that has been said has already been said.

– Between June 1990 and the end of September this year, 1.267 people died of Aids in the province of Kanchanaburi. After that, 87 percent became infected through sexual intercourse. Six thousand people are currently HIV positive. Most are between 30 and 34 years old. The number of HIV-positive people under the age of 25 is increasing.

The provincial public health department is preparing a campaign that aims to reduce the number of HIV infections to zero. According to Narinrat Phitchayakhamin, that goal can be achieved through better education and prevention. Doctors should encourage high-risk groups to get tested so that they can be treated in time and to prevent HIV-infected mothers from infecting their babies.

– Forty people were injured in a collision between a school bus and a bus with workers in Muang (Lop Buri) yesterday. One student is in serious condition, she has broken ribs. The accident happened when the company bus made a U-turn. The school bus crashed into the middle of that bus.

– We don't want a waterway between Bang Ban and Bang Sai (Ayutthaya) residents of Bang Ban say on posters. The construction of the waterway is part of the projects for which the government has allocated an amount of 350 billion. When the canal is built, forty families will have to move. A hearing has already taken place on the project, but according to a local protest leader, only proponents were heard.

– The municipality of Bangkok has asked the demonstrators on Ratchadamnoen Avenue to clean up their mess themselves. The road is now kept clean by street sweepers from all over the city. On Sunday in particular, the demonstrators left behind a huge amount of rubbish. On Monday, 155 tons were collected against an average of 147 on the other days. The municipality has placed 500 rubbish bins on the avenue.

– A father and his 16-year-old son died in Klaeng (Rayong) when their pickup truck crashed into a tree. The man probably lost control of the wheel because the road had become very slippery after a heavy rain shower. As a result, the car skidded.

– Yesterday, rural doctors protested against the new P4P salary system at the beginning of the street where Prime Minister Yingluck lives. They demanded the resignation of the Minister of Health. The rural doctors are opposed to halving their inconvenience allowance and introducing performance-based pay (P4P: pay-for-performance).

Economic news

– The good news is that so far no air travel or hotel bookings have been canceled by tourists visiting Bangkok or other tourist destinations. But if the political conflicts continue in the first quarter of next year, the tourism sector does expect cancellations.

The Association of Thailand Travel Agency is therefore calling for a peaceful end to the problems soon. Nineteen countries have issued travel advice. They advise their citizens to avoid protest locations.

The 2014 Bangkok Countdown at CentralWorld is proceeding as planned, the Ratchaprasong Square Trade Association says. Visits to the area are slightly less than usual, but the companies expect this to be short-lived.

Prime Minister Yingluck says the occupation of the finance ministry could damage investor confidence and undermine tourism.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand does not expect any negative consequences for tourism if the situation remains peaceful. Cancellations have not yet been reported by the TAT's foreign offices, but the offices in Europe have yet to submit their periodic report.

When the situation reaches Level 5 (advising countries not to travel to Thailand), the number of visitors may fall by 8 to 10 percent this year to 25,75 million and turnover will fall by 25 billion baht.

– The SET index fell 0,46 percent on Monday and closed at 1.352,86 points after having stood at 1.345,02 earlier in the day. A meager 32,18 billion baht worth of shares was traded. Foreign investors remained net buyers and securities dealers withdrew 362,97 million baht from the market.

Porranee Thongyen, research manager at Asia Plus Securities, expects political tension, both inside and outside parliament, to increase this week. On Tuesday, parliament began a so-called censor debate. It concludes today with the vote on Thursday. Opposition party Democrats will introduce a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Yingluck and the interior minister.

– The payments to farmers who have handed in their paddy since the beginning of October and have not yet seen a penny are in doubt. The Ministry of Finance may not be able to achieve a 75 billion baht bond issuance. Fund managers are not eager to put their money into a system (the rice mortgage system) that is not 'transparent' [read: plagued by corruption].

The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), which pre-finances the system, desperately needs the money because it does not have sufficient liquid assets. If the ministry fails to sell the bonds, it would be the first time the ministry has defaulted on its debt to the BAAC. Farmers have threatened to join the anti-government protest.

Chajchai Sarit-apirak, first senior vice president of Kasikorn Asset Management, which manages the BAAC bonds, fears that the bonds will not be sold because the amount involved is large. "If the government wants to sell them all, it should offer a high spread." [?]

The Treasury Department said last week it would borrow from banks or allow the banks to bid on unsold portions of the bond package if interest from institutions falls short.

www.dickvanderlugt.nl – Source: Bangkok Post

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