News from Thailand – November 24, 2012

It's all about tension today. How many protesters will Pitak Siam's anti-government rally attract? Is the protest getting out of hand? Should the 20.000 agents and soldiers who are standing by come into action?

Police estimate the rally will attract 76.000 participants, but Pitak Siam doubts that as many protesters, especially those forced to leave the country, are stopped at checkpoints along the way. And nine roads have been closed in the Royal Plaza area, leading to even greater traffic chaos in the city than usual.

Retired general Boonlert Kaewprasit, leader of Pitak Siam, thinks the government's aggressive response will have the opposite effect and will actually increase support for the group. The government has declared the Internal Security Act (ISA) applicable to four districts of Bangkok. In addition to the 20.000 agents and soldiers already in Bangkok, 51 companies of 100 men are being held back. Four can go into action immediately when summoned.

The verbal attacks on Pitak Siam meanwhile continue unabated. Pracha Prasopdee, deputy interior minister, says Pitak Siam is manipulating the population and undermining the democratically elected government. He warns that "some groups" will abuse the protest to cause chaos and overthrow the government. But Pheu Thai member General Amnuay Thirachunha considers that unlikely without military intervention. Other Pheu Thai members are also hacking at Pitak Siam.

To ensure that the rally remains peaceful, Pitak Siam has appointed 2.000 people as security guards. The organizers are extra alert because of reports of red shirts planning to mess around. General Boonlert reiterates that the group does not intend violence and does not intend to occupy government buildings. A highlight of the rally will be videos of red shirts insulting the monarchy.

Prayong Chaisri, legal adviser to Pitak Siam, thinks it is strange that the government has banned persons under the age of 18 from participating in the rally. The red shirts used children and the elderly as human shields during the occupation of Ratchaprasong in 2010, he says.

Update: Police dispersed a group of protesters with tear gas. They were heading for the Royal Plaza and trying to break through barricades on the Makkawan Bridge on Ratchadamnoen Avenue. The authorities had set up a barricade there, but the demonstrators ignored it.

– Four soldiers, who call themselves the Pitak Siam Military Group, have a problem. They have ignored the army command's ban on participating in the Pitak Siam protest. On Facebook, they post photos and messages in support of the anti-government protest. One of them defends their action by arguing that soldiers are also citizens and have the right to participate in democratic processes.

The four have been summoned by their commander. Army commander Prayuth Chan-ocha has asked the commander to have a word with them but not to take punitive measures.

– A 45-year-old mother and her sons aged 10 and 12 were admitted to hospital on Wednesday with symptoms of poisoning after drinking coffee and Ovaltine. The woman later died, the children survived the poisoning.

According to a younger sister, there could be a connection with an incident three days earlier. A neighbor then accused the boys of stealing 20.000 baht. After their denial, the neighbor attacked them.

The police will examine the rice cooker, which was used to boil water, bottles of water and three packs of coffee and Ovaltine for fingerprints. The neighbor is called in for questioning.

– I saw the images on television and was shocked by the extreme violence. Three men assaulted two employees of an internet shop in Lam Luk Ka (Pathum Thani) on Tuesday. They punched and kicked the boys in the head numerous times, came back again and made off with 4.000 baht. Four officers and the commander of the Ku Kot police station have been transferred to an inactive post in connection with this. They did not respond quickly enough to a telephone call from the victims.

– An aunt in Ubon Ratchatani sent her 7-year-old niece on the path of thieves. The girls had to steal things from unattended motorcycles. The girl told police she was beaten when she refused. The aunt could be arrested because the thefts were recorded by surveillance cameras.

– The director of the Ban Tha Kam Cham school in Nong Chik (Pattani), who was seriously injured on Thursday when she was shot at on her way back home, has died in hospital. All schools have sent their students home as a result of the assassination attempt.

Staff from 40 schools in the district held an emergency meeting yesterday to develop a new safety plan for teaching staff. Boonsom Thongsiprai, president of the Teacher's Federation of the Three Southern Border Provinces, has called on authorities to review safety measures for teachers. In areas with a lot of violence, they need to be protected around the clock.

– In a bus accident in Kanchanaburi, 40 Russian tourists were injured, 4 of them seriously. The driver, his wife and a guide were also injured when the bus hit an earth fence on the side of the road and overturned. According to the driver, the road was slippery and had many sharp turns, causing him to lose control of the wheel.

– Move Mor Chit bus terminal? Deputy Minister Prasert Chantararuangthon (Transport) likes the proposal of the State Railway or Thailand (SRT) not a good idea. The SRT wants to move the bus station so that the land can be used for more profitable purposes. The minister is against relocation because the station is now close to other public transport connections.

Economic news

– Rising household debt in Thailand is a serious problem not only for households but also for the government. While the rest of the world is in the process of reducing debt because of overconsumption over the past 20-30 years, Thailand's debt is mounting. This says Ian Pascoe of consultancy firm Grant Thornton Thailand.

Pascoe says it is ironic that the government's populist measures aimed at reducing the debt burden of low-income earners have exacerbated the problem. The first car buyer program and the rice mortgage system have incentivized people to spend more than they can afford.

In a survey of 200 companies, Grant Thornton found that household debt has risen rapidly to 40 to 50 percent of income, well above the safe level of 28 percent. This is especially true for people earning less than 15.000 baht per month.

Pascoe also points out that people borrowed significant amounts after last year's floods. Not from banks, because they kept their purse strings tight, but from informal sources with higher repayments.

Pascoe says that raising the minimum daily wage to 300 baht should not be a problem if productivity increases. This will have to happen anyway because the population is ageing. All in all, he notes that Thailand remains an attractive country for business, especially in the industrial sector and food.

– The negotiations with the US on participation in the Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership (TPP), a free trade agreement of eleven countries, will take a very long time. Sek Wannamethee, director general of the American and Pacific Department of the State Department, points out that public hearings on the impact should be held for all sectors involved. That is a requirement of the constitution. The results of this go to the cabinet and then to parliament. During the visit of US President Obama, Thailand expressed its interest in the TPP.

– During Loy Krathong, next Wednesday, 10,3 billion baht will be spent, the highest amount in 7 years and 24 percent more than last year. That prediction is made by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. Per capita spending is estimated at 1.459 baht.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand has earmarked 20 million baht for eight major events at the end of November. They take place in Bangkok and the Sukothai Historical Park.

www.dickvanderlugt.nl – Source: Bangkok Post