Foreign investors are selling Thai shares en masse
Thai shares are currently being sold off frequently by foreign investors. Investors view the prospects for the Thai economy as bleak in the absence of economic recovery. In addition, there is little confidence that the military government will be able to turn the tide.
Thailand's finance ministry last week again revised its forecasts for exports and gross domestic product growth downwards. For the third time in a relatively short time.
In July alone, $774 million worth of Thai stocks were sold by foreign investors. Thai listed companies made less profit than expected and are therefore not interesting for stock traders. In addition, the Thai currency is in free fall and is at its weakest level in six years against the dollar. vcurrency traders see little prospect for the Thai baht in the long term. Declining exports, low corporate profits and declining production in Thailand are deterring investors and currency traders.
Another negative aspect is the delay in infrastructure works. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has not made much progress with his planned infrastructure investments. Investors initially saw the benefit of these projects that should boost Southeast Asia's second largest economy. Now that it takes longer than expected, they lose confidence.
Tourism is positive
The only positive economic news to report is the growth of tourism. The depreciation of the baht ensures that Thailand becomes cheaper again and therefore more attractive to foreign tourists. The baht has lost 6,4% of its value in recent months.
Source: Bangkok Post – http://goo.gl/1aEeaO
The cheaper Baht may be good news, but I will only cheer up when the rate is well above 40 again. And even then: many products have quickly become more expensive since the increase in the minimum wage. The bottom line is that Thailand is just not a cheap destination anymore, even when compared to more southern parts of Europe, such as Portugal.
Hello Jasper,
I thought it would be good to point out that the article is based on the thb/usd relationship and not the thb/eur relationship, which is a completely different story.
Best regards. Bz
You're right. Both currencies, Thai Baht and Euro, are in a downward trend against the US Dollar. As long as that is about the same, the value of the Euro against the Thai Baht will hardly change, if at all. However, if the Greek crisis is finally resolved, the Euro may start to rise again against the Dollar. If the Thai Baht does not do that, and that is to be expected, the Thai Baht will become cheaper for us.
bz,
And what do you think the expat brings here???
Take a simple utensil….the car.
Needs maintenance now and then, or one just couldn't avoid that crossing lamppost, a clean car is also very nice, also needs a floppy benzene or diesel now and then, that drives a bit better, insurance is also very safe and despite the insurance, you always lose a pretty penny. want to trade in because it gets too old, so an object is immediately doubled.
The stagnant sale of condos???
IN SHORT, IT'S A CRACK OF A SNOWBALL THAT KEEPS ROLLING AND WHICH KEEPS GROWING.
Just count on your fingers how many suppliers and sub-suppliers are involved in the above story.
All these companies also have employees.
I notice it in ourselves, that we also take into account the lesser baht for the euro.
And then you can roar long and loud that it is still cheaper, but we live here in Thailand and so one does not compare.
But there is less investment and people postpone a purchase for a while and wait to see if the baht will fall.
In short, the expat postpones many things thanks to the bad exchange rate for the euro.
With all these stories, like the foreign investors throwing the stock into the market.
Investors who sit in the waiting room for a while.
Isn't it about time that people open their eyes here and that they don't make a very large omelette from those golden eggs?
Bullying tourists – no beach chair and parasol, so it's nice to get the blisters.
The few who just want to lie on the beach without all this, because they don't have that, is a macro percentage of those who want all this, but then don't go to the beach.
A national income that I don't think the government has a clue about, so think that
many of those stupid rules don't affect that or that this doesn't matter.
Continue to maintain the arrogance that the government can afford anything and that it does not stop for a moment that they are turning the throat of the Thai economy?
because yes, tourism is a very important income for Thailand.
Yes TB-ers, despite the fact that there are many things that can give me a heart attack now and then, we love this country, but that doesn't mean we keep wearing those rose-tinted glasses.
LOUISE
Hello Louise,
An emotional story. Can't really do anything with that.
My car here in thailand road tax 1400 bath per year. Insurance maintenance fraction of the cost in nl.
Annual inspection 200 bath.
Doesn't say anything at all.
But let's get over the emotion,
It's gotten a lot more expensive, but
sometimes it is a lot of fun with the prices, see package inspection, road tax, etc.
Fortunately not a banana republic where the army practices shouting pop and training with flapping pistols.
Once again Louise can't do much with your story.
Free fall of the baht ….. that is why our euro has fallen again, especially now, strange free fall …., maybe against the dollar maybe . Or yet again “Amazing Thailand”?
Jasper, that's again because of that lousy euro. If it was stronger, we would have had 48 baht by now. But we keep hoping… I also heard from someone who just got back that Thailand is not cheap. I usually live in khonkaen surroundings and I think it's not too bad there.
I don't know what made TH so much more expensive, but when I eat, drink or buy in the 7/11 in BKK, HuaHin or Chumpon, the prices are still the same as 5 years ago.
That the Bath is in free fall against the USD is also “slightly” exaggerated; ThB 3,5 more for your $ than a quarter ago, but ThB 2 less than a year ago.
TOV de pleuro they have nothing to complain about. Last year we received 43 ThB for that, now only 38.
OK, that has been even worse, but already going to say that the ThB is so weak……
In the restaurants, food courts and food stalls, portions have become smaller, milk has risen in price by more than 15%, and other food products have also risen markedly. In the past, your shopping cart was well filled for 1000 Baht, now barely the bottom. You will only notice this if you live and live here.
Currency exchange rates are boosted or depreciated according to the policy of issuing national banks, be it Bank of Thailand (BOT), European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve Bank (USA), or others… That fluctuates to the rhythm of financial strength of the respective national banks and the current (economic) policy. Political forces would like as much flexibility as possible to support their ideological story, but the scope is never infinite…
The Bath-Dollar comparison is still made easy because of the former peg (very close bond) between the two currencies.
In itself, the monetary exchange rate does not say much about the state of a country.
On the other hand, the massive sale of shares does say something about the state of the country, leaving aside erratic short-term irrational speculation. Stock markets are not just places of speculation, they still reflect the value of things…
Curious if art. 44 will be invoked to gild and polish this too?
It's the economy stupid!
For a stock trader it does not matter at all how much profit a company makes now, but only whether there is a demand for the share now or in the future. Maw the outlook.
A trader is not an investor and vice versa.
With the devaluation of the baht and a stock market that was almost at a standstill, a trader will have to cut his losses.
In any case, the global stock market climate is starting to deteriorate quite a bit in my opinion, due to the high valuations and various other things, such as falling commodity prices, the imminent interest rate increase in the US, the fuss about Greece, which will start again in a week or two and the free fall of the chinese stock market.
In Amsterdam, the game to boost stock prices through futures is currently underway. In other words, as a large bank or trader you manipulate the price upwards so that you can get rid of your pieces for a good price. But during the day the prices are almost silent, there is hardly any trade. Then I already know enough.
For the mathematicians among us: on March 16, the euro was the lowest against the thai baht, nml: 34,09. Gradually, the euro has recovered somewhat, and today it is quoted: 37,78 (bkb)
On March 16, you received for one euro: 1,06 usd, today that is 1,10 usd.
And on March 16, 1 usd worth thai baht 32,90, today thb 34,66.
After some calculations, you arrive at a euro vs dollar vs baht ratio dated March 16, being 1 x 1,06 x 32,90 = 34,87. In reality, the euro was at 34,09. So a shortfall of 78 Satang. In other words: the dollar was clearly stronger than the euro.
For today you end up with 1 x 1,10 x 34,66 = 38,13. In reality, the euro is at 37,78.
Which means that the euro still has a deficit of 35 satang against the dollar.
Anyway: from 78 Satang to 35 Satang. The euro is thus rebounding slightly, but has unfortunately also lost its clout due to all the Greek Tragedy. The euro would otherwise have beaten the dollar with flying colours.
How further? China is doing significantly less, and the US is also proving less resilient.
Now that Thailand is also sinking into ashes, the omens for the euro regarding the ThaiBaht are more favorable than they were 6 months ago. If in the coming months the EU manages to make more creative and more stable agreements in the settlement of the Greek crisis with much more intelligence and wisdom, then there may be more glory at the end of the year. Looks good again - so with the holidays!
If there had not been a confidence issue in the Euro in Europe due to Greece in particular, the Thai baht would have been about 20% higher for us or 45,5 to a euro.
For the Americans and British, the Thai Baht is at its highest point ever.
It would have been better for Europe to say goodbye to Greece 3 years ago, because then the pain would have been brief and the pain is not over yet, despite the growing European economy and the weak agreements made with Greece.
The decline in Thai exports is a disaster for the Thai economy, because they are now also seeing that they are dependent on domestic production by foreign companies.
In addition, it would be good if wealthy Thai companies or individuals invest in Thailand.
THE investment by CP and Chang in 2 HSL routes is to be applauded.
The purchase of a Thai company/individual of 48% of the shares in AC Milan and the sponsorship of PL football club Everton and QPR are objectionable and have no added value for the Thai economy.
A (natural) disaster in America could weaken the US$ and benefit the Euro as investors look for another home for their money.
I don't know what a Malaysian airline ( Air Asia, owner Tony Fernandes ) has to do with the Thai economy… But yes!
Furthermore, is that billionaire who bought Milan shares stupid? That's why the billionaire is…
The Chang board is also stupid in your opinion or are they sponsoring to find an open market somewhere?
I don't understand comments like this, I'm sorry
well I can only say that it has not become cheaper with that pleuro.
Stood in front of the ATM today and had to pay € 280 for 10000 bht outrageous rate fluctuates nicely today around 36 and from the weekend still 38.4 hope that euro will pick up a bit
On this site you can see the movement of the Thai stock index.
You can click on a period at will.
http://m.iex.nl/Index-Koers/190118482/THAILAND-SET.aspx
In my opinion, the index is holding up nicely under the massive sell-offs of the last few months. There is obviously a buyer for every seller at this level.
If we look a little longer (back!) (two years) we see a realistic, cautious development, which does not clearly break out of the upward trend of the past six years.
There is no bubble, so it cannot burst.
How different has the Chinese Shang Hai index, for example, fared recently.
All in all, it would have been better to have Thai stocks than Dutch Euros in recent years.
No one can make wise statements about the future, in the financial world, countries do not differ from each other.
One knows better than the other. They all tell it differently. So no one knows
It only comes down to one thing. Thailand must devalue its bath and let go of its peg to the US dollar against the euro. Because exports to Europe have fallen by 1%. And keep those so-called cheap stories to yourself. Do not compare apples with pears and that is regularly done here.
When I see what the imported products in Thailand cost. Then it is much more expensive. And all those stories about the profits having no influence are pure nonsense. If microsoft makes less profit, the shares fall, but if other reputable companies do, the shares do not react, and for example Greece makes up only 2% of Europe. Everything is pure speculation of money traders and again when the oil price is low, dollars stronger. This has always been the case. So it has nothing to do with gdp and with oil prices. But in Thailand there is a major crisis. 70% of families can no longer make ends meet. Farmers lose on rice and other products, so foreigners sell their shares en masse. So nice all theories but not 1 is correct.
Stock markets are populated with speculators who work for the wealthy.
Who don't care about a country's economy but are only out for (quick) profit.
Stock markets are not a measure of the state or development of a country's economy.
They just panic, hoping that prices will fall and buy them back at lower prices. And sell higher. Then repeat what they did.
The same scenario all over the world :
The 30s are too far from memory.
In the XNUMXs, the United States thus revival measures
then in Europe, 2005-2009, where they take a little longer to take their measures.
Then now, in smaller economies, but here they can hardly take any measures.
Those 'measures'? Letting the common people surrender, making them poorer.
So don't panic. They will come back, those foreign 'investors'. If there is something to pick up.