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Home » Reader question » Thai Baht has become a lot more expensive, will that change?
Dear readers,
The Thai Baht has become hugely more expensive in a few days. I don't think it's good for the economy. Bought a piece of land at the beginning of last week at 34,42. Now that I want to transfer money, the country has suddenly become € 1.145 more expensive due to the increase in the Baht.
Hopefully that will change? Doesn't seem calm to me for tourism and Thai exports.
Regards,
Robert
In October it will be quoted between 36 and 37 baht/euro.
Just confirmed by my crystal ball.
But I think the chart clearly contradicts this.
Don't feel like going to Thailand at all with this trend 🙁
Ls,
It depends on so many factors. Think, for example, of the policy of the Central European bank in Frankfurt, the money market in the world, which deals with incredible amounts every day, etc. In short, it is a complicated story. Gr Rob
Holidays in Thailand are starting to get expensive with this rate. Certainly not good for tourism.
Well, notice that I receive 6000 baht less per month than about 8 months ago, so it may change.
It is true that the Baht has become more expensive for European and American visitors, but not necessarily for Chinese visitors. Or Koreans. So that detrimental influence remains to be seen.
But that the Baht is too expensive in a general sense (apart from tourism or the consequences for Western expats and pensioners), that's right. This may change in the long term (actually there is no other way), but the extent to which “we” (Europeans) benefit from this is the question, because the European economy is not gaining steam. Although things are going reasonably well in the Netherlands, the economy of Germany, the upcoming yes or no Brexit, the situation in Italy (huge budget deficit), the inflation that will not reach 2%, are all not good signs. The ECB has pumped huge amounts of money into the European economy in recent years and the result is barely noticeable.
In short, for us the Baht will remain expensive. For Asians there will be some relief in the long term, I think
What I actually mean in the previous; the exchange rate of the Euro will not change spectacularly compared to the Baht. And besides, a cheaper Euro is good for exports, so it is not immediately a priority to let the exchange rate rise.
The cheaper Euro is indeed good for exports, but importers will not continue to pay if they can get it cheaper somewhere. A while ago 38000 Baht = €1000 now today is 38000 Baht = €1114. So the countries that import have to pay more and the countries that export to Thailand get less eg today
We mainly import electronics (office machines) and a little meat and fish. There are Asian countries that can supply this competitively.
It seems right to me that the importing countries pay less for goods invoiced in €, instead of more – or am I overlooking something?
if the bath is low you get less for a euro, but the prices are the same or more, you soon pay 50% more than in 2012, only the government does not earn the citizen with this, but they don't care if they themselves but get more.
but the government does not realize that people are spending less and so the economy is slowly sinking, and less income also has less exports.
If the bath were to devalue by 20%, the real ratio is still missing
Tragic….but true.
The tourist, but especially the export, has serious problems.
Whether they will be resolved is THE question. NOT YET
Where that goes, Jelle will see
Groet
According to.
Dear Robert, there have been several discussions recently on this blog about the strength of the Thb. The general conclusion, know it know may say it .. Crystal ball not available, in other words it remains guessing etc.
Indeed, exports and tourism will suffer as a result. Other interests unknown to us will play a role in this. My interest is my own bank account, which, due to the strong bath, also gives me a lot less disposable income here in Thailand. So Robert waiting for better times and perhaps transferring investments here in Thailand to a later date, when the exchange rate is more favorable to you..
In recent weeks, several comments have been posted on Thailandblog about the increasing strength and price of the TH baht. Most of them simply concluded, but clearly, that for the time being there is little baht to be digested for many euros.
Which means that the time to purchase movable and/or immovable property is unfavorable. Waiting for better conditions is the motto. Which also means that buying land at the moment can be a subject of discussion. In other words: is all this such a sensible act?
I wouldn't do it, but to each their choice and decision. After all, it is your own wallet that is empty. However: (unfortunately, but still) it must be said that a farang can never buy land in TH. He only pays! And of course: we all hope that there will be a sharp turnaround.
And that the strong baht is bad for tourism and export: has also been reported a lot. That is why many people are warned: in accordance with an NL saying, it counts for two!
In my response, it must lead, of course, that exports and tourism suffer. After three beers a small attack of Alzheimer's Light (just kidding..)
The rise in the baht is indeed remarkable. According to some “experts” the Thai economy is doing very badly; the exchange rate of the baht certainly does not indicate that.
An expensive baht is indeed not good for Thailand's exports and for tourism to that country, but apparently no reason for the Thai government to lower the rate of the baht for the time being.
The strong baht is good for rich Thais who want to invest / park their money elsewhere.
Economically, the baht should devalue rather than strengthen.
It is possible that there will be movements in the monetary field.
Prayut held talks with PMShinzo Abe (Japan) at the G20 this week.
Trump has moderated his tough stance on the trade war with China towards Xi Jiping.
Trump has achieved a tentative success against North Korea with Kim Jong Un.
How will Europe and the ECB react to this?
Everyone is anxiously awaiting!
I get my salary in THB so the reverse is true for me. The baht may rise even more, it will be extra advantageous to travel to NL.
Throughout the centuries, Thailand has not attracted much from other countries, even now things are still going well, right?
About 45 years ago, the baht converted to euros was now 20 for 1 euro, sad but it can really get worse.
Sold our house ourselves and so no problem a few years ahead, but will it be 20 baht for euro by then? Then I will certainly pack my bags despite the beautiful life here
In the short term, the euro drops to 32-33, unfortunately my expectation, which hopefully will not come true.
For the state pensioners with a small pension, it will be sucking, but that has been the case in NL for years!!
It is the fault of all those expats here, so also your own fault: the price of a currency is determined by supply and demand. If you keep buying bahtjes…. well, it will be more expensive. 😉
Fortunately, we now know why the baht is getting stronger.
So expats don't spend more baht than really necessary,
a few leo less and problem solved
Dear people all, it is not the Thai bath that has become expensive, but the euro that is so weak. Many people think that the Thai bath is expensive, but it is not. If the central bank in bangkok raises interest rates a bit, that would make a big difference.
With regards
In March 2013 the dollar was at 28 baht and then some and the euro was at about 45 baht. The sad conclusion is that the dollar has become stronger and the euro a lot weaker. Conclusion; is not only due to the baht but also to the weak euro (thanks to the countries under Belgium).
dollar stronger? No, not at all, it remains unchanged against the Euro as it has for a long time, only the Thai Baht has become stronger, and this against almost all currencies!
Much too positive news and figures that were different from reality caused the Thai Baht to rise to unknown heights!
It is not doom and gloom for everyone with the high bath rate.
There are also those who go back to their home country or live elsewhere in the EU.
Now is a favorable time to sell your belongings in Thailand and convert your pennies back into the Euro or Dollar.
Then the high exchange rate plays to your advantage.
I therefore suspect that many wealthy Thais are now busy converting a large part of their liquid assets into other currencies.
I myself am now also considering transferring part of my savings at my Thai banks back to the Netherlands.
You don't have to leave it at the interest on savings accounts, as it means little to nothing in both the Netherlands and Thailand
Jan Beute
Many condos are sold and bought by Westerners (AUD, USD, EURO, CAD, Norwegian kroner, etc… all decreased in value compared to baht. Those people therefore have less money to spend in baht. As a result, many condos are sold in baht prices have decreased.
My condo was worth 3,15 million baht a few years ago, now definitely 300.000-400.000 less, if I look at some prices of condos in my building. So in the end you will not get a lot of euros back…
If you follow Jan Beute's story, you can break even (“kiet”) when selling, because the less ThB you receive when selling is canceled out by the more euros when transporting it to NL. As said: there have been many comments on the ThB-Euro exchange rate. Nobody knows exactly what the price will look like at the end of next quarter, let alone the end of the year. I have already suggested that it is not wrong to ensure reserves of ThB, in order to subsequently convert these into euros, for example, in these times. In due course you will send it back to TH. But yes: most of them stay in TH on a financial molehill. So, what are we talking about?
As has been said before, when it comes to the course, it is a matter of guesswork. In recent years, my wife and I have only visited Bangkok before heading home. The surrounding countries have become so much cheaper that we leave Thailand for what it is.
A strong stable economy is always accompanied by a strong stable currency. All other continents are weakening and their currencies are plummeting with them.
That has never been different. There has never been a crap economy with a hard currency.
Thailand therefore has everything that is important for investors. The industrial zones are springing up like mushrooms and those who stay away for a year will certainly discover a new shopping mall in every city.
You can't drive through a street without new condominiums being built that are easily sold to wealthy Thais. Land prices are starting to skyrocket.
The whole of SE Asia will be the economic engine of the world. I give on a leaf that within 10/15 years more Thais will visit Europe than Europeans Thailand.
You look at it through very rose colored glasses.
In Hua Hin:
– A lot less tourists than before.
– indeed a new shopping mall, namely Bluport, where more stores close than new ones are added.
– Indeed many new buildings that are NOT. Being sold. The energy, a project against Cha Am with 6000, yes six thousand, condominiums is a ghost town and is empty. Houses are being sold back below construction price.
– The local population complains bitterly. Even the people at the local markets don't like it anymore.
– Reservations in most restaurants are no longer necessary. There are dramatically few customers.
-…….
I don't know where you live, but either you are visually impaired or you don't reside in Thailand.
Today I made the following observation:
Because the THB is very high and the USD and EUR are very low and the Western tourists keep coming, the Dollars and Euros flow smoothly into Thailand…. making Thailand richer…
Many tourists come to Thailand once and do not know the exchange rates of the past… This makes me suspect that the tourists do not spend less money. In their eyes it is still a beautiful country and a very special holiday. yes right?
So why should the Thai government and Thai banks be concerned?
Not the bath has become more expensive. The euro with all that scheming has depreciated enormously over the last 14 years.
It's just the other way around.
The euro against the Japanese yen over the last 15 years. The Chinese Rimibi, Malaysian Ringit, Australian Dollar, Norwegian Krone, Swiss Franc, etc have fallen in value. So that's where the main cause lies.
further financially no confidence in the euro internationally. The interest rate level in the euro countries is also heavily affected.
In the coming years, the Baht will remain relatively strong against the Euro.
Despite the political misery, Thailand is a relatively stable country economically and despite the fact that many think that Thailand largely benefits from the arrival of tourists, this source of income is not insignificant, but also determines only a limited part of the economy. Thailand is still a major exporter of various goods. And as contradictory as this may sound to many, this is actually a stabilizing factor for the Thai economy.
The Baht-other-currency ratio is largely determined by international demand for the Baht (including Thai equities). Due to low interest rates on government bonds and loose monetary policies in the US and Europe, much international money is eagerly seeking returns . As a result, a relatively large amount of money is parked in Thailand and this drives the Baht up.
The special thing is that many emerging markets have taken a beating in recent years. The Malaysian ringit, for example, has plummeted considerably. Thailand escapes the dance. The Thai central bank is very conservative and Thailand has a very limited national debt.
I myself lived in Thailand for a number of years and when I returned to Europe I was surprised how cheap certain parts of the continent are at the moment. As a European, the price/quality ratio in Thailand is falling fast. I was recently in Taiwan and I think I got a better bang for my buck than in Thailand.
So now we have to wait for a lot of international money to leave Thailand. If the demand for baht decreases, the currency will fall. I just don't see this happening any time soon.
Dear Thomas, you write a lot of international money eagerly looking for returns.
How am I supposed to see that, because how can you make a return on your finances in Thailand today.
Not by putting money in a savings deposit, and not in the real estate market either.
Jan Beute.
I read that America has warned Thailand not to manipulate the exchange rate.
I read that the Bank of Thailand is considering cutting interest rates a few days later.
Indeed, the tourists continue to come, especially those from Asia, but Thai exporting or international companies producing here are already starting to complain about the strong baht.
Since the Asian crisis of the 25s, the baht has gone from 1/45 euros to 1/XNUMX.
In about 2014, the turnaround started again (coincidentally, in the same year in which the army restored order and the junta announced, among other things, their plans for economic zones).
Now that there seems to be a civilian government again, this may also have consequences for stability.
There are already signs in that direction in society.
I've been here since 2015 and can still get by very well on my state pension and two small pensions.
What I do is transfer what I need to live my undemanding life here and the rest stays in the Netherlands waiting for better times, or is converted into bitcoins for speculation.