Dear readers,

What is Thailand doing? 55 deaths out of 70 million people and closing almost everything. Wouldn't it be better to always remain closed because I think 55 people die with every virus.

Regards,

Henk

59 responses to “Reader question: Why close everything for 55 deaths?”

  1. Johan says up

    You can ask the same question for any other country, and just as little get a conclusive answer. Why is everything globally locked in the first place? There are more than 7.000 million people worldwide; there are just over 4 million infections, and there are less than 0,3 million deaths.
    Take Italy now: how hysterically the media did not respond to every infection and death more per day. And now look at the Ver. Kingdom: the number of infections and deaths exceed those of Italy, and the rooster is no longer crowing!!
    Why has the instruction/example of China/WHO been so slavishly followed worldwide at the beginning of March?

    • George Hendricks says up

      If you were allowed to work in an ICU department of a hospital, I think you would quickly reason differently. The shirt and skirt principle also applies to the so-called choice between preventing Covid expansion and saving the economy Or whether I can simply travel. If you were to be a flight attendant, you would look at it differently. I know a few who aren't eager.

      • albert says up

        Yesterday I spoke to a vpk who works in the ICU and there were 49 IC beds with Corona
        Currently 18 beds are still occupied in the Northern Netherlands.
        Now comes the second wave.
        And as for |Thailand, I don't believe the Covid Center has the numbers in order.
        Yes and as I described it often :55 dead 10 million unemployed and hungry ??
        Brazille 10000 dead, also not the right numbers

  2. Richard says up

    Based on the number of deaths and that this also says something about the number of infections, good contact research seems to me to be sufficient to contain any potential outbreak of infections. In the Netherlands, about 400 people die every day from all kinds of diseases, accidents, etc. In Thailand this will not be much different, but about a factor of 4 more. I don't know the exact figures on mortality in Thailand. With 55 deaths from Covid 19, I do not think there is any substantial excess mortality. Perhaps the government is afraid of demonstrations or other expressions of dissatisfaction about this government's policy. They can control this through strict measures, but perhaps this is too cynical.

  3. Kidney says up

    Dear Henk,

    It is precisely because of all the (heavy) measures that the registered death toll is fortunately so low and few are added. If Thailand had not done this, the consequences would have been incalculable in my opinion. The Thai health care system would never have been able to handle that.

    • Tino Kuis says up

      Exactly, Rene, that's what I think too. It is precisely because of the strict measures that the death toll and the pressure on health care remained limited. This applies to many countries such as South Korea and Taiwan.

      China is blamed for not taking very strict measures after a few deaths so that the virus could spread worldwide.

      The United States took measures very late, which also varied greatly per state, and there are now almost 80.000 deaths there.

      You cannot say: 'We will not take strict measures until 100 or 1000 deaths', because then it will be too late.

      On the other hand, I underestimated the economic consequences, which also caused a lot of misery and deaths due to unemployment and poverty.

      It is a diabolical dilemma for which there are no 100% correct solutions. If you choose this measure, it is better for this and worse for something else. Weigh it carefully. I am glad not to be a policy maker. They are actually doing it all wrong…..

      • Petervz says up

        Thai health care has 1 very important factor and those are the so-called อสม (healthcare volunteers). In every village there are these volunteers who take care of 8 households. So a village with 40 houses has 5 volunteers. They are really at the front here and ensure that people in their village adhere to the measures (quarantine, curfew, wearing face masks, etc.). Unique in this world.

        • Tino Kuis says up

          I wrote about that in 2013 (seems like a long time ago), petervz, here:

          https://www.thailandblog.nl/gezondheid-2/volksgezondheid-thailand-succesverhaal/

          Small quote:

          These volunteers are the backbone of one of the most successful public health systems in the world. For example, they have contributed to a significant decline in infectious diseases such as HIV, malaria and dengue.
          WHO, 2012

          Health volunteers in the villages
          Let me start by saying something about the health volunteers in the villages, because they are perhaps the most important contributors to improving public health, especially in rural areas, and unfortunately they are not well known.

          In English they are called 'Village Health Volunteers' and in Thai, with an abbreviation, อสม, 'oh sǒ mo'. Founded fifty years ago by doctor Amorn Nondasuta (now 83 years old), their number is currently 800.000, or one per twenty households. They can be found in every village (unfortunately I have not been able to find out whether they also function in the cities, perhaps there is a reader who knows or can inquire? I suspect not).

          These volunteers ensured that basic health care was distributed more fairly. In a country where power radiates wealth from Bangkok, this is one of the few examples of a relatively self-sufficient, community-based and community-led effective program. The wide-ranging activities of these volunteers clearly show that very many do care and are committed to the general and collective interest of Thailand.

        • geert barber says up

          I was not aware that this existed here. I know such a system from Tanzania. So not that unique but useful

      • chris says up

        We have elected politicians precisely to solve diabolical dilemmas. What has now happened in most countries is that people have simply followed the advice of doctors / virologists (who, by the way, do not all think the same) without really considering the consequences of the measures.
        Good crisis management also means consulting experts in other fields (gerontology, education, law, economics, logistics, foreign policy, human and group behaviour, (child) psychology, IT, etc.) and clearly communicating decisions and considerations. (Just an example. Every politician is calling for an international, global approach to the virus. Why then a fairly ordinary money quarrel with Italy and Spain, why not an international system of producing and distributing the necessary material (with price control), why not a scenario of an airlift of patients to hospitals with capacity also across the border to prevent overload, why not deploy the army to produce and/or distribute food, why not stock exchanges closed, why not international coordination for a drug and a vaccine)
        It is clear to me that there has been a complete lack of that and that is also one of the main reasons why so many people have had enough of the heavy measures. And a basis for all kinds of conspiracy theories because a large number of basic questions were not answered. It also seems to be a shame for politicians to admit that we don't know a number of things.

      • gore says up

        Taking measures in time appears to have worked very well. In addition, the type of measures. E.g. restricting air traffic early and banning extremely busy events have proven effective. An example of this are many European countries: the Netherlands allowed flights to Milan at the end of March, and tourism to winter sports areas was also possible. In the US, a flight ban was already imposed on Feb 1 and you now see that the number of deaths per 1 million inhabitants is significantly lower than in Belgium, UK, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands (the top 5 in Europe). When you consider that if you take New York out of the numbers (which is the biggest flashpoint in the US, and where many foreigners arrive) the numbers match those of Germany, which has implemented a fast-paced and very restrictive policy.

        Without believing the figures of Thailand for 100%, I do think that the chance of contracting the virus here is small, especially because people often live outside. The greatest risk of infection appears to be when larger groups of people are indoors for a longer period of time (2-3 hours). Think of carnival, apres ski, bad weather,……..

        Very good analysis has been made by Maurice de Hondt on his blog. The article is recommended https://www.maurice.nl/2020/05/07/de-achterhaalde-mantras-van-onze-virologen-en-de-grote-gevolgen/

    • Johan says up

      Dear Rene, there are 2 hidden assumptions in your answer that have been hammered into us all. The question is whether unacceptable mortality would have occurred if no measures had been taken. There is a big difference between doing nothing and controlled government action. See Sweden.
      The measures cost Thailand hundreds of billions of baht. That loss is taken as if it were normal. But why was it not decided to set up a corona clinic here and there for ten billion baht. China has already preceded Thailand on this point.
      Also applies to the Netherlands, though. Wobke Hoekstra predicts a budget deficit of more than 92 billion euros before the end of the year. If a clinic had been built in the four corners of the Netherlands, each with a budget of 3 million euros, we would have saved 80 billion euros.

      • Cornelis says up

        Do you mean that building those clinics would have made other measures unnecessary? I can't imagine that much, but you can certainly substantiate it, right?

        • Johan says up

          No, of course not, but as I said, there is a big difference between doing nothing and acting in a controlled manner. Now there is acting out of panic because of fear of bringing in Italian situations. This argument turned into a precarious lockdown justification when Spain saw excess mortality. It is not stated that the same is happening in the UK. Brexit?
          Where was Europe, where the EC is even concerned with the length and width of a paving stone to be laid?
          We acted out of (failure) fear and on the basis of hope for better. Fear is a bad counselor and hope is a bad strategy. At the end of February/beginning of March, more than enough knowledge was available. China had already built extra clinics, Taiwan was not locked but tracked and traced, Singapore had an app and South Korea committed to massive testing. There was even a half-examined SARS1 vaccine on the shelf of Erasmus. In 2013 (!!!) they were already working on it. Just google it yourself. Reading stuff. In the end, Rutte did not dare, where Sweden does keep its back straight. Protecting the elderly by isolating them and quarantining the sick. Allowing the sane and young to continue the economy. “People” did not dare to propagate all this because it was not allowed to create the image that especially the elderly would die. But look, what has been going on in hospitals, nursing homes, rest homes, etc. in recent weeks? Up to a hundred billion euros will be deployed in 2020 alone, as if it were nothing? The damage will come at us like a tsunami in 2021. Separation of the vulnerable had been realized for several billion euros!

          • Manyre says up

            Good of you to mention Singapore. You can now see for yourself with the second wave why the measures are necessary. Glad that there are people who understand it and sometimes even feel in the dark with this new virus who give advice based on their expertise than people who trivialize the virus and dismiss it as a flu or trivial thing.

          • Harry Roman says up

            The EU, on the other hand, has nothing to say in the field of public health. That is exclusive to the Member States. Hence, an appeal to it can immediately block the free movement of goods and people – THE pillars of the EU.
            Just as much as FIFA, and therefore the Olympic committee.

          • Rob Kooymans says up

            Dear Johan, I completely agree with you and could not have said it better myself. The worst part is that we don't get along at all, we are just as vulnerable to the virus. Many seem to think we should be careful until a vaccine is developed… Like this can be made on demand, if you throw enough money at it, it can't. That vaccine may never come, and when it does, it may work just as well (or poorly) as the flu vaccine.

          • Marcel says up

            If the Netherlands had been the only country to do so, Europe would have divided our money among the other countries.
            You can already see that a budget deficit such as in Italy, for example, will soon yield billions in support from the EU, and for which we will have to pay as the best boy in class.

            About Thailand, if they hadn't taken this seriously and the Covid had spread beyond the tourist areas, the suffering would have been incalculable with many deaths.

    • ruud says up

      What effect could all these measures have had in the slums in Bangkok where the houses are small and everyone lives close together?
      A single person with the virus should infect the entire neighborhood.
      Something is wrong with this virus.

      • HansB says up

        Quite a lot is known about the virus, but not everything yet.
        When you look at numbers per country, there are very large and strange differences.
        Some possible causes are:
        Differences in the way the numbers are determined.
        Differences in population density.
        Lower aggressiveness of the virus at higher temperature.
        Differences in the measures taken
        The number of infections is almost everywhere an order of magnitude higher than the number of infections detected, but that order of magnitude strongly depends on the number of tests and the method of testing
        Etc.
        Nb. Singapore doesn't really have a second wave. The number of infections among the local population remains very low.
        At a later stage, the virus struck in the quarters of half a million guest workers who live in a room with 10 to 20 people. Because they are less old, the number of deaths has remained very low.

      • peter says up

        covid19 thrives best between 1 and 14 degrees and a humidity of more than 6gr per kilo of air.
        above 27 degrees covid19 disappears.
        Due to the high temperatures in Thailand together with high humidity, there is little to no COVID 19 in Asia.

    • chris says up

      Just a few comments:
      1. since the first measured contamination in Thailand on January 13, no strict measures have been taken until mid-March, or you should call the measurement of the temperature of still incoming tourists until March 13 a severe measure;
      2. the recorded death toll, indeed. Very little is measured, so what you don't know doesn't hurt. If averages also apply to Thailand, about 6 million Thais should be infected and the death toll about 60.000. (= 1%).
      3. that the health care system could not cope is an assertion that cannot be substantiated. The system has now never been overloaded. A friend of mine, in the management of a private hospital in Bangkok, says that the hospital was prepared but never saw a single corona patient.

  4. Erik says up

    Well, possibly because Thailand realizes that 'only' 55 deaths have occurred because the country was not prepared and there were no test sets…, because of lax behavior as in China…, because of not widely testing the part of the population that has a is at increased risk…, by changing the cause of death of the corona deaths for certain reasons and last but not least: because there have indeed been no more than 55 deaths.

    And, Henk, how would you react if no quarantine measures are taken and your family is among the next victims?

    As long as there is no approved vaccine, and no surefire treatment, I support the quarantine measures. This virus is different from others and requires a different approach; I think that's right.

  5. Diederick says up

    They will think so in America, Italy, France, England, etc. etc. “If only we had intervened earlier. If only we had had 55 deaths (or less), and we could have restarted now”

    Although Thailand tests relatively little. They are now at 3.264 tests per million inhabitants. And until recently that was a lot less. So the figures can also be taken with a grain of salt. Testing is increasing in Botswana.

    Although I do believe they have it under control, because there are no images anywhere of hospitals that cannot handle the flow of patients.

    (source for the figures: coronavirus.thebaselab.com)

    I think Thailand is now biting the bullet and eventually running ahead of us in Europe.

    • They are at 3.264 tests per million inhabitants. That doesn't seem right to me.

      • Leo Bossink says up

        @Peter (formerly Khun)

        I've been trying to reach you for a while, but I can't.
        Can you contact me ? [email protected].

        • Hello Leo,

          I have e-mailed you at least 4 times already. Apparently they don't arrive. Have a look in your spam folder. Or take a gmail account, works better than hotmail.

      • Gerard says up

        Anyway:

        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

        The order is based on the number of infections detected per country, in Thailand there are 3.009. The figures on this website are very accurate and with source references.

  6. Michael Siam says up

    This is a globalist coup… nothing more, nothing less. Watch the YouTube documentaries of Dr. Rob Elens, Dr. Wittkowski, Dr. Judy Mikovits, Dr. Rashid Buttar and you will hear the truth about the globalist agendas.

    • Jack S says up

      A believer in a conspiracy theory? Is the earth perhaps also flat, are there no satellites and has the earth already been destroyed by that planet on the other side of the sun? And the moon landings never happened?
      The “truth” about globalist agendas is being spread by a bunch of idiots, who come up with arguments that are usually contradictory on all fronts and manipulated in such a way that gullibles cling to them.
      But of course it's all Bill Gates's fault, who is going to inoculate the whole world with a drug that will make us willing slaves.

  7. Eric says up

    A mass hysteria has been created worldwide, which certainly means that we have an economy that will make more victims than the covid itself. Gradually, politicians and economists are already thinking this way, left and right, who are waking up. During a quarantine, sick people are normally isolated and not the healthy ones, they could keep the economy running, or is it no longer normal for nature to do its job? In Thailand the numbers will be far from correct, that's how you keep the population happy Most Thais cannot afford a test.
    By the way, you are more likely to die in traffic in Thailand than from covid.
    It is sad to see that so many people sit down for a meal every day, start the economy and open the borders so that tourism and the economy can get going again, they will now welcome the Chinese with open arms

    • Harry Roman says up

      Small problem: after a few days of spraying viruses around, you only know that someone is infected, unless you test the entire population every week. The same goes for “locking up” all risk groups = old people + those with underlying medical problems.
      65+ in NL from 0,3 million in 1900 to 3,2 million in 2018 = 18%. That is the population of Utrecht and Gelderland together.
      For Thailand, see https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/29/session3/EGM_25Feb2019_S3_VipanPrachuabmoh.pdf
      And letting the “young people” run the economy unchecked again means that a lot will become infected = great danger for the “locked up”, where there is also no idea how many of those young people will die THEN.
      And those expensive care elderly people: thins out significantly, resulting in lower health insurance premiums, ensures that the state pension and pension gap is quickly resolved, ensures a flow in nursing homes (where a 2nd or 3rd corona wave can provide even more solutions, already many " beds” empty), frees up geriatric nurses to care for the young people, pushes the collection of inheritance forward, frees up many homes and saves a lot of visits to those know-it-all old people for the busy, busy, busy young people. We can't make it more cynical... (a large part also applies in Thailand)

    • Herman buts says up

      You apparently do not realize, just like the Thai government, that Chinese tourists contribute little to the economy, travel is booked and paid for in China, travel is done by Chinese bus companies, they stay in Chinese-owned hotels where they stay on an all-in basis .
      The Thai government has learned nothing from the Russian debacle, half of the condos in Pattaya are empty and / or for sale. But according to the government, everything is going well 🙂 The Thai farmer bank (of the Thai government) is almost bankrupt. Thai Airways is a bottomless pit, thanks to the government. Nothing comes of all the promised investments for lack of money. So we just say that there are only 55 deaths in Thailand, sorry but the time that I still believed in Fairytales is over long gone.

      • chris says up

        Dear Herman,
        Most other foreign tourists do not fly to Thailand with Thai Airways, but with other airlines (Eva Air, KLM, etc.). That money therefore largely does not end up in Thailand. And there are also package holidays Thailand for sale at the Dutch tour operator.
        The Chinese mainly spend their money on entertainment (Grand Palace: 500 baht per person) and trinkets. Even if these Chinese only spent 1000 Baht in Thiland, it would be 10 million times 1000 Baht. That is much more than all other tourists put together, not to mention that most of the hotels are foreign owned.
        Thai Airways is in trouble because of mismanagement and not all caused by the government.

  8. khun says up

    How much better do we know! But all these know-it-alls are not responsible! So a very comfortable position to participate in this discussion, which leads to nothing.
    Let's see how we get out of this catastrophe through our political system.
    Because it is a global catastrophe, this cannot be denied.

  9. Hernias says up

    I was still in Thailand in February. Then they all thought they were going to die, tourism was already on its way back then. I already predicted that nothing (no epidemic) would happen in Thailand because of the climate, no indoor events and, among other things, no shaking hands or kissing at greetings. So now they have lost many billions unnecessarily and an economy that has been destroyed. Nice and smart of the frightened politicians / generals.

    • support says up

      Emily,

      Even if no ban had been imposed on tourists from Europe, etc., tourists would not have come (due to lockdown in their own country). The same applies to export: it was already lagging behind and was not improved by corona measures in the field of transport.
      The cap brigade may not always make decisions in the interest of the country and people, but they can do little about corona either.

  10. Harry Roman says up

    In all of the above, one factor is missing: how many deaths would there be if NOT all these precautions were taken.
    If that virus could proliferate unrestrained for several years... and the counter would eventually run to 100.000 or more, because THEN all measures will be too late.
    With the newspaper of 2030 in hand, everyone knows what we should have done better NOW, but… with today's newspaper in hand…
    In 2009, the then NLe government bought 34 million ampoules against the Mexican flu, but .. "that didn't happen". You already understand: shortly afterwards the whole of Klompenland knew it much better: how could those idiots from The Hague have bought so much superfluous junk.
    Early 2020: NL (and many other countries) generously answered the Chinese call for relief supplies, hoping that Covid-19 would remain limited to China, just like SARS... Too bad...The Chinese at home in lockdown, their masks etc machines silent, European production is virtually nil due to austerity, and stocks in China are like “soldiers in a losing battle”. And NL again in the Mascot rolling papers mode: know better, can do better, do better.
    To be clear, the last time we had to fight a biological wildlife war was from 1918-1922. Worldwide about 50-100 million deaths out of a population of 2 billion. For what stands on the side of NL, about 48.000 dead in a population of 6,75 million, but the Netherlands Indies 1-1.5 million in a population of 41,7 million, at the Census in 1930. In other words, for NL-now, at 17 million: 125.000 dead. Would you like to be Prime Minister of NL, to do that in the House of Representatives resp. then explain on Nieuwsuur etc.? Ditto Prayut with a totally wrong 0.1-1 million deaths on 65 million Thais?
    Thailand and the rest of SE Asia (Singapore with 5,85 million inhabitants, only 18 deaths) is very lucky: EITHER a weak branch of the virus OR .. the combination of high humidity and temperature and therefore few consequences. Who knows, the coming consequences in Africa and Latin America will tell..

    • HansB says up

      The sum of what would have happened if no measures had been taken is very simple.
      The study by the Englishman Neil Ferguson et al. of March 16 is 18 pages long and well worth reading for those who are really interested. The English policy, which started too late, is based on it.
      They predicted 0,5 million deaths in the UK and 2,2 million deaths in the USA without measures. That translated to the world population means an order of magnitude of 70 million deaths.

      Very briefly it goes as follows. Infection number around 3, as long as it remains well above 1, the number of infected people will grow quite quickly. Growth will stop when around 70% of people are no longer infected, i.e. around 5 billion. The mortality rate is now estimated at 1.4%, so 70 million and unimaginable chaos throughout the world, both emotionally and economically.
      And whether there are 30 or 100 million is not so important for the conclusion, which reads:
      Measures are inevitable.
      The way in which, the extent to which, the duration of which, experts and governments may ponder. If you read newspapers such as the Volkskrant and NRC, you can get an impression of the complexity of the choices that have to be made.

      I find some of the opinions I read a bit short-sighted.

      • HarryN says up

        Your story makes no sense. This man has missed the mark many times (Paul Weston - Neil Ferguson's Legacy of Doom). Also with your reference to that report, I can tell you that it was quickly outdated by the man himself. After 1 or 2 weeks there would only be 20000 deaths and a little later he adjusted it to about 6000. The damage had already been done by then because the government imposed the lockdown on that first report.

        Conclusion: No one knows what would or would not happen if no measures were taken. Everything we suspect might happen is a stroke of luck.

  11. T says up

    You are right how many people die in traffic every year in Thailand alone, due to malaria / Dengue, snake bites, etc. etc. is not important, only 1 word sounds CORONA.
    And this is not only in Thailand, so I don't think it's surprising that many people now think there is more to it than the so-called CORONA.

    What will certainly happen is that the Thai economy will not remain intact in the coming period.
    I still hear people say the tourist industry is only a small part of Thailand's income sources.
    Well they are slowly crying for the euros, rubles, dollars etc. etc. of those terrible farangs that many Thais actually prefer not to have.
    Oh yes, of those other strongholds of the Thai economy, the car industry, for example, not much remains about who is going to buy a new car now that there are not many.
    And Thailand also had a little oil, fortunately, well, a liter is worth nothing anymore.

    I think Thailand is going back 18 years and it won't just be Thailand.

  12. Ben says up

    Dear Henk, the number of deaths is actually so important. What matters is that the contamination remains limited. I also want to give you one piece of advice, make sure you don't get it. However, if you did get it, please report back on what it was like to have it.

    • Ger Korat says up

      As has often been said: the vast majority get it and notice nothing or very little and are not bothered by it at all. Point. And this point is also what this topic is about, namely for those few people who are sick and a handful of infections per day in Thailand flatten the entire economy with 10 million unemployed. And these are not unemployed people that we pamper in the Netherlands, but people without money and income. Read in the news that in Italy (in the poor south) 700.000 people are already going hungry because of the Covid misery. I also read in the NRC that 130.000 additional people will face hunger because of Covid. I would also like a report on the millions of people who do not get enough to eat and therefore have no energy every day, are weak and die prematurely (these are often children). And for your information (from UN): before the Covid era, 24.000 people died of hunger per day and this could be solved by providing an extra contribution of 11 billion per year. Compare that to the billions that are now gone.

  13. Harry Roman says up

    Many people behave as if the whole corona story is some kind of international EXERCISE “Population Protection”. “Take the coffee shops out of the risk story, otherwise we will go bankrupt.” “Can't it be opened 10 days earlier with 150 people sitting outside at exactly 2 cm distance (?)? Our football players are losing their international value and cost an average of € 0,5 million per year in salary, so please compensate us - from the tax pot! Ditto the theaters, and many other forms of relaxation. Ditto Breda: 545 catering establishments in a city with 185.000 inhabitants. The same in the surrounding villages.
    How did you think that those “Corona” funds should come back? From the money trees in Wobke's garden or falling from the ceiling in 'The Tower of Rutte'? No, simple: through taxes, from you and especially ME.
    In other words: convince me that YOUR financial problem must be solved by MY (extra) tax money!

  14. Christian says up

    I think those who believe that there are only 50 covid deaths are very naive, I don't believe it, and that is also why the government is taking tough actions.

    It was teeming with Chinese tourists here. There is still a difference between registered covid victims and actual number of deaths. In Belgium they already count someone they suspect is a covid victim. In another country only those who have undergone a test may be allowed, and possibly dta testing or registration is avoided as much as possible to give a good impression.

    The climate is no different in the filipino indonesia malaysia and the figures are quite a bit higher.

    It's thanks to the good approach ... sorry but I don't see most Thais keeping their distance, supermarkets are walking / standing next to each other, and they bring hundreds of people together every day for food distribution and everyone is standing against each other.

    All understanding for the hospitals, nobody wants an unmanageable situation, but the fact remains that despite the delay, nature will let some more elderly and weak people leave this year, after all, the population greets too quickly (almost every second an extra person ).

    To stop everything for this and to overreact in my opinion... I also support the Swedish model more, keep going, don't create a second disaster, everyone is a bit more careful, disinfect hands, keep distance and wear a mouth mask where necessary, and we have been coming for a long time. end.

    • Harry Roman says up

      I think that Belgium and part daughter is with the truth than NL.
      No, “In Belgium they are already counting someone they suspect is a Covid victim”, but it is really a probability that verges on certainty.

      Belgium with 11,2 million inhabitants: 8656 deaths, of which 4114 confirmed in hospitals and 4450 in residential care homes and 92 elsewhere. Specifically mentioned in each news program. See https://www.demorgen.be/voor-u-uitgelegd/coronavirus-in-cijfers-en-kaarten-het-aantal-besmettingen-doden-en-genezen-patienten~b5875c3f/

      Looking at NL with 17,2 million inhabitants: 5440 officially. Looking at the list below: we also have an excess mortality in those 6 weeks = 5900 people aged 80+ and 2450 people aged 65-80. Cynically: imagine what that means in terms of healthcare premiums, AOW + pension payments...

      80 years or older 2019: 84.988

      2020 week 12* 2.083
      2020 week 13* 2.551
      2020 week 14* 3.080
      2020 week 15* 3.058
      2020 week 16* 2.638
      2020 week 17* 2.284

      = 15.694 in 6 weeks or 85.000/52 * 6 = theoretical 9807 / 6 wk = 5887 more than the 3 years before.

      65 to 80 years 2019: 45.916
      2020 week 12* 1.077
      2020 week 13* 1.397
      2020 week 14* 1.501
      2020 week 15* 1.430
      2020 week 16* 1.217
      2020 week 17* 1.136

      = 7758 in 6 weeks or 46000/52 * 6 = theoretical 5308 / 6 wk = 2450 more than the 3 years before.
      See https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/cijfers/detail/70895ned

      • RonnyLatYa says up

        “almost certain probability” is still suspected and the latter is also the term that virologist Steven Van Gucht of the National Crisis Center always uses.

    • Harry Roman says up

      Singapore, with its 5,85 million inhabitants reports 18 (EIGHTEEN) corona deaths. We can assume one point in that non-democratic city-state: the health care is excellent.

      • HansB says up

        I have explained the situation in Singapore, the infected are guest workers and they are under 60. That is the explanation. Even Singapore doesn't have any miracle hospitals.

  15. Christian says up

    I think those who believe that there are only 50 covid deaths are very naive, I don't believe it, and that is also why the government is taking tough actions.

    It was teeming with Chinese tourists here. There is still a difference between registered covid victims and actual number of deaths. In Belgium they already count someone they suspect is a covid victim. In another country, only those who have undergone a test may be allowed, and testing or registration may be avoided as much as possible to give a good impression.

    The climate is no different in the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and the figures are also a lot higher there.

    “It's thanks to the good approach…” sorry but I don't see most Thais keeping their distance, supermarkets are walking/standing next to each other, and they bring 100 den people together every day for food distribution and everyone is standing against each other.

    All understanding for the hospitals, nobody wants an unmanageable situation, but it is and remains a fact that despite the delay, nature will let some more elderly and weak people leave this year, after all, the population greets too quickly (almost every second an extra person ).

    To stop everything for this and to overreact in my opinion... I also support the Swedish model more, keep going, don't create a second disaster, everyone is a bit more careful, disinfect hands, keep distance and wear a face mask where necessary, and we have been coming for a long time. end.

    • puuchai korat says up

      I broadly agree with your argument. What is happening now is that measures have been taken worldwide, based on unreliable figures and assumptions. Even the death figures are not accurate. I lost my only sister completely unexpectedly last year. In a country like the Netherlands you would expect that a cause of death could be determined, but nothing. Despite repeated insistence from the relatives, no plausible explanation has been issued six months later. And now all the deaths are said to be due to a previously unknown disease? So I personally don't believe it. And now you hear a lot of people downplaying the flu. Flu? I can say from my own experience that it is an almost annual battle against the flu virus. And one day the virus will win the battle, or I'll leave because of something else. So be it, it's part of life. There is also no causal link between measures and a reduction in the consequences of the virus. That simply cannot be proven. And I actually think that if you observe the normal caution, which I was taught from home, sneezing into your handkerchief, washing your hands, staying at home if you are sick, that is sufficient. Just like with the climate, humanity thinks they can influence a natural process, but they will never be able to influence it. Viruses will continue to come and go and the Earth will continue to evolve. It is still a young planet, in puberty actually. It has yet to take its final form and that includes climate changes and natural disasters. Perhaps in a few centuries, when more inventions have been made and man will know himself better. And above all, he will know his place in creation. And despite all this, hardly anyone dies too early or too late. And it is not by chance that too many are born. The earth monitors this process. Look what happens after a war. Then more men will be born (baby boomers, for example). I think the worst thing is that ordinary working people (not capitalist investors, but people who often try to sell their own fresh products) who depend on their daily work for their daily bread now have to sit still, worldwide. In addition, in Thailand many of these people are dependent on tourism, the gates of which are not expected to open wide again (unfortunately). It is hoped that politicians will one day land their feet back on the ground and do what they have to do. Ensuring that people can achieve a dignified existence through work. And that the media should stop with this disproportionate sensational reporting on just one subject. And what is most important to get through such a hype is the confidence that life does not end with physical death. It is not without reason that people say that he or she has given up the ghost. And so it is.

  16. JAN says up

    The day before yesterday, a cousin of my wife died in Lopburi. She had very severe lung and respiratory problems. She has not been checked for covid-19 like most Thai patients and is probably one of so many who die daily from it and who are not included in the covid mortality figures. Who is still so moronic / naive today to take something au serious from the Thai government.

    • Herman buts says up

      So if you do not test, you have no official deaths. I think there are more than 2 zeros missing from the real number of covid deaths in Thailand.

  17. John Eveleens says up

    Completely agree, Hank
    These are mild symptoms of hydrophobia. A child can calculate (regardless of whether math was an optional subject) that the 70 million Thais will all die within 100 years.
    that is 700.000 per year... More than 1900 per day. Regardless of the cause.

  18. Eric Constantinidis says up

    Maybe read what virologist Peter Piot says:

    I read a scientific study yesterday that concluded that you have a 30% chance of dying if you end up in a British hospital with COVID-19. That's about the same overall death rate as for Ebola in 2014 in West Africa.
    West Africa is also on the equator and it is very hot there!

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19#

  19. vanneste kris says up

    Medical terrorism is leaders' way of demonstrating their power.
    About five years ago, with the swine flu, there was also a pandemic …
    More people die from fear than from the disease itself. But yes, all those measures bring in money and one can demonstrate who is the "boss".
    However, there is only one certainty in this life : everyone has to die and the chance of dying increases with age. A number of risk factors can advance the date (smoking, addictions, cholesterol…)
    BUT NOBODY CAN CHEAT DEATH…
    There is no doubt that certain factors promote epidemics, such as climate and overpopulation.
    There are too many of us and then nature will correct everything, but everyone forgets their history: millions died from smallpox, the Spanish flu, the plague, cholera….
    Now in Africa nearly half a million CHILDREN die of malaria !! No one cares about that…
    Yes, the pharmaceutical industry has us all in its power .. Fear (read fear of contamination) kills mercilessly ... It is the stock market that determines how people react ... Will Europe continue to exist? We'll see….

  20. Hank Hollander says up

    It's fantastic to read how many virologists there are who know better. Of course, the Thai take the economic losses with great pleasure and are satisfied with a virus that is nothing as a reason. Lock down the whole country for those few dead. OK, in Sweden there are now more than 3.000, without too great restrictions, but we don't pay attention to that for the sake of convenience. The amateur virologists don't care about that. When will the moment come when all amateurs leave such decisions to those who really understand them, in this case the real virologists. The world is not in panic because this is a virus that is nothing. Without drastic measures you will get an enormous mortality. It is good that drastic action has been taken in Thailand, so that the death toll has remained limited.

    • Leo says up

      Henk Hollander why do you point the finger at those who think the measures taken are unnecessary. Are you such a great virologist yourself that you can prove that not taking measures will cause high mortality. For me it is an ordinary flu that has been blown up enormously by the measures taken and will cause a lot of poverty and discomfort. Or are there no more deaths now that the measures have been taken? Yep, just the same. Everyone knows that he must die.

    • chris says up

      Let me give an example.
      Suppose there is a major economic crisis that spreads all over the world via China. To prevent worse and collapse of the entire system, most countries prohibit the payment of salaries and other benefits (such as pensions); otherwise even more companies and institutions will collapse. The companies where employees want to work without payment remain open. The rest close the doors. The population is being urged to move en masse to the countryside and to live with family and friends who can take care of their own food supply as much as possible. There is a threat of a shortage of food (not to mention alcohol) but also of accessibility because many markets and supermarkets are closing. Doctors are screaming bloody murder because part of the population (first the weak) are in danger of dying of malnutrition. The economists, the only advisers to the government, don't care. They hold the view that if the economy goes to hell, there will be no one left to eat. No income is a severe measure, but there is no escaping it. And it may take a while, because a second economic crisis can easily follow the first if there are people who still get money.
      Would we take this?


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