I've read a lot of conflicting messages lately, so I approached a friend in Thailand, who knows the tourism sector better than anyone else, to explain how she really sees the future based on what we know now.
She managed to tell me the following:
I think it is still 50/50 whether vaccinated people can come to Thailand in January 22 without any quarantine or having to stay in certain hotels in certain areas – such as Phuket or Samui.
The government wants to re-open the country by the end of October. But vaccinations are going quite slowly and the people who need them most aren't at the front of the queue.
Thailand has ordered a lot of Sinovac because a large Thai company – CP Group – owns a big share in the company that makes it.
The problem is that this isn't as effective as the Western vaccines against the Delta variant of Covid. So a lot of Thais want to get vaccinated but don't want to get Sinovac.
Many resorts are also closed at the moment as it's hard for Thais to travel. So until mass tourism resumes, the tourist areas of Thailand will look un-inviting for visitors as there's no point locals spending money to re-open shops, bars and restaurants until they can make enough money to live on.
Hopefully the 2022 – 23 high season will be busy enough for small businesses to break even and then the situation is back to normal in 23 – 24.
I have trusted her 99,9% for years and think, am almost certain, that she is right. As painful as it is to read this, at least for those who have, so to speak, already packed their bags, like me, to in the near future.…
How did this come to this?
In recent years, the “farang tourism” share in Thailand has been stagnating anyway (not to say falling back) due to, among other things:
- continuous price increases;
- sometimes due to a “pretentious/greedy” attitude (everything was as good as fully booked or almost everywhere);
- due to competition from nearby countries (Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Philippines) ed
The government let it go because there is no problem “China has 1,4 billion inhabitants and India is close so, what's the issue”, the future is assured because a fraction of those Chindias will replace it without any problem “ slight” loss of farangs.
And indeed the Chinese and the Indians have taken the place of the “farangs”, even more so they have even flooded the country, albeit in a different guise than was envisioned (read C-19 and Delta).
Where there was no problem with the air, suddenly there is a problem with all the disastrous consequences for millions of Thais. The country has had enough time to take the necessary steps, i.e. to properly vaccinate everyone as quickly as possible and thus:
- save thousands of Thai lives;
- to secure part of their 20% of GDP.
Now they have to catch up to avoid the iceberg and stay at the helm as the passengers begin to worry about the captain and his orchestra.
How did this get to this point? I wonder it daily. Such a developed country, with sweet, sensible people, with such a rich culture.
Submitted by Philippe (Belgium).
A gloomy scenario and I think this picture could last until the end of 2022.
But, Philippe, Myanmar as a competitive neighbor? Things happen there that no tourist comes to, even apart from corona. And there the soldiers are far from back to the barracks.
Dear Philippe.
Almost everything you write has already been said and widely known, so nothing new.
Erik is right with his remark about Myanmar, because no one wants that.
But I think that Laos and Vietnam are certainly not nice destinations at this time for reasons of their own and that in my personal opinion the Philippines will certainly not be a competitor, because there too there is a fool in power who negatively influences the country.
It is indeed almost impossible to make money from Chinese tourism, except that they are taking over the whole thing in Thailand, but that has been the case for decades.
The global pandemic is causing a huge decline in individual travel, or holidays, at least by the sensible, because let's face it, wouldn't it be better for everything if that decreased more.
For tourism, Thailand will have to develop its creativity to fill in that 20% of income in a different way, which seems to me to be a much better plan for all Thais, this was also possible in the past!
The times when Patong Beach on Phuket only had sandy paths and streets with sidewalks, a single bar and a few restaurants.
Also Chaweng Beach on Koh Samui where it was even smaller more than 35 years ago, but also much nicer and the people were much happier.
Pattaya, which was completely ruined by the US Navy when the large aircraft carriers anchored off the coast there during the Vietnam War to allow their crews to board and thousands of crew members disembarked there at once.
The town eventually had nothing to do with Thai culture and unfortunately that is still the case today, only the beaches of the said places have regained their old beauty.
If all vacant roof construction gradually disappears, because renting or selling is no longer an option, Thailand will regain its beauty of 35 years ago.
I have also been coming to Thailand for many years and had the thought of spending my retirement years there. But my Thai wife strongly disagrees and does not want to consider a possible longer stay in Thailand until 2025. Because she says: as the situation is now, she only sees the circumstances getting worse. Thailand will suffer even worse economic blows in the coming winter season '21-'22, and social unrest due to a lack of support and aid will increase further. She disagrees with Philippe's girlfriend who talks about a fifty-fifty situation. It is much more serious, the chance of tourists coming to Thailand is less than 20%. Neither Australia nor the US nor Europe and certainly not India and China are cij of Corona-Delta at the end of the year, and Thailand will still be partly vaccinated. A vaccine protects you against Covid but does not guarantee that you will not infect someone else. Infections imply hospitalizations and filling up of ICUs. So far Thailand has not proven to be able to deal with these situations. Instead of learning from experiences in other countries, Thailand reacts just as chaotically. This means that Thailand will only be able to open its gates during the winter season '22-'23, and we can hope that 2023 will be a year in which summer tourism can make a new start.
Do not forget that the living situation for ordinary Thai people is becoming disastrous. Most of them will not be able to receive an adequate vaccine this year. There will come a time when this policy will no longer be tolerated. Not only tourism is affected, plus the services linked to tourists, the entire informal sector is in very bad shape. There is already a lot of unemployment in my wife's family and circle of acquaintances, and she assists those people here and there with small monthly payments.
Finally, the question: how far could it have come this way? Philippe gives the same answer - the captain and his orchestra have continued to play the same tune because another score is not available. People just don't have that mindset. Because Thailand is not that developed at all, so alternatives can be used. Thailand actually has a selfish culture that is actually not nearly as rich in empathy; Thailand may have nice people at the base, but there is no sensible attitude at the top. But that has been the case for some time, and will continue to be '22-'23-'24…….. Unless! Time will tell. My wife is on the right track with her prognosis for 2025, it looks like.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand
The share of farang tourism is indeed decreasing, but almost all Western countries are still showing growth (until 2020 then). It is therefore not the case that the Chinese and the Indians have replaced the Westerners. The growth of tourism from China and India is easy to explain: Thailand is close by, relatively cheap and the Chinese and Indians have become richer and freer in the past 15 years.
So no reasons can be given for the decrease in the number of Western tourists because there is no such decrease. Research shows time and time again that prices are not a significant factor. Who is guided by the price of a beer or a menu when choosing a holiday destination, not to mention that you can make it as expensive and cheap as you want in every tourist country. So nonsense.
Yes, competition is increasing but has not yet led to a decrease in the number of Western tourists. One of the reasons is that Thailand has a lot to offer for many different categories of tourists.
One of the main reasons why things kind of go wrong, in health care and tourism and education and public transport, is that Thailand is a market-oriented, capitalist country; for decades and under every government, of whatever style. The government does very little for you, a lot is left to the business community, which of course is not a charity organization and picks the cherry from the pie. One of the characteristics is therefore that there is absolutely no policy or is being pursued in these collective areas: vision is lacking. And yes, then you are at the mercy of the top managers, the rich and the issues of the day. And when the situation gets too bad, parts of the people stand up, change the government and then wait for the next disaster.
If you don't have a 'mai pen rai' mentality you have a bad and stressful life here.
I also do not immediately think that the Chinese, Indians, etc. have replaced the Westerners.
In recent years, there have simply been more Chinese and Indians than Westerners.
And then the perception is of course different.
Suppose you used to have 10 Westerners against 000 Chinese, and that ratio has grown in recent years to 2000 Westerners and 10 Chinese.
The observation is then that there are fewer Westerners, but there are actually still 10. Only the number of Chinese has grown.
Where you used to see 5 Westerners for 1 Chinese, you now see 5 Chinese against 1 Westerner.
I think that is the simple explanation why many people think that there are fewer Western tourists. Every time I took the plane between Belgium and Thailand I never had the impression that there were fewer people on those planes. Usually still full..
That the long-stayers may be reduced may be, but I don't count them directly with "tourists" who came to spend their leave here for 2-3 weeks.
Everything for COVID of course…
Of course, this refers to the absolute number of Westerners who come to visit on a touristic basis, and that number is indeed declining. Where there used to be 5000 Chinese and now 50000 people from China, there is an increase. If the number of Westerners remains at 10000, then you are talking about stagnation. But I think there are only 5000 Westerners to Thailand and only 25000 Chinese. The relative ratio remains 1:5, but nevertheless the total number is drastically decreasing. Anyway, none of it matters: tourism is imploding!
No, that number is NOT decreasing. There has been growth in almost all countries in the last 10 years. And yes, the number of Chinese and Indians has grown much faster than the number of Western tourists.
@chris,
It's as you describe. Either problems come from nature or from politics. Read the link to an opinion piece from 2013 and it is still relevant now and in 10 years. https://is.gd/vXAtWp
On topic and from our own observation, 2021 is a lost year for many and 2022 will have a lot of trouble due to a low baht and higher prices for imported products. Break even in 2022 would be a lot for many because a policy that has been deployed will not suddenly change completely, but a focus should rather become 2023 despite pressure from all kinds of groups.
I can give several reasons why Western tourism has declined in recent years.
Firstly, the exchange rate of the baht plays an important role. 15 years ago, many hibernators switched from the southern European countries to Thailand. In some cases it is cheaper to spend the winter in Spain than in Thailand.
The visa policy also plays a role where you could previously easily do your visa run up and down, this is no longer possible. In addition, the charm is also that everything is based on getting as much money as possible from you. You used to arrive at don muang with the text de land of Smile and that was also very typical. Now you arrive at an ugly atmospheric airport full of Asians.
They also had an eye for the tourist at the time and were kindly received. Nowadays they find it disturbing when you walk in because they have to end their mobile activities. Thailand used to be a place to be for backpackers and it is actually no longer where you used to have a beach accommodation for a few euros, now there are luxury resorts.
Yes, those Asians here, that is really something of recent years.
In 2011, 10 years ago, there were already 1,2 million Chinese tourists. So that's not from the last few years.
“Now you arrive at an ugly atmospheric airport full of Asians.”
Yes, you wouldn't immediately expect that in Thailand, right 😉
The number of Western tourists has not decreased at all.
End of discussion.
Of course the number of Western tourists has decreased, with very good reasons, the banks and euro crisis in Europe and USA, the covid crisis, the attitude of the Thai government towards mass tourism, they prefer fewer tourists, but for that, wealthy people who live here a lot to invest,,
The aura to people who have come here for many years to holiday, and now hear that they are no longer welcome at all, can also contribute to people looking for another destination, and Cambodia and Vietnam are known for having Western welcoming tourists with open arms.
Even now in the current situation, this government continues to prepare and announce offers only for the rich of this earth, so people no longer feel welcome,
Dis already started during the period when jingluck was in power, and has only strengthened under this military regime.
If you want tourists to come to your country, you have to give them a feeling that they are welcome, and not be bothered by increasingly strict immigration rules.
But the economic situation in the world is the biggest reason that tourism is failing all over the world, and the government is not helping much to solve this.
Personally, I don't care about such predictions. When predictions come true, the publishers are psychics and if they don't come true they seem to have gone up in smoke.
Everyone has an opinion now. Virologists, economists and politicians now also regularly miss the point. Easiest is always predicting the past, that is something everyone can say.
Had you asked that same question to your girlfriend in February this year, the prediction would have sounded very different. Your girlfriend will also not have predicted in February that Thailand was back in trouble again in July.
This is also the case in Belgium….some predict that we might experience a more or less normal Christmas, others completely disagree.
No one can predict the antics of a virus, not even that girlfriend.
@fred,
Indeed, no one can predict, but can make an estimate. With this response you show that you are not an independent entrepreneur and that you live with the issues of the day. That is of course allowed, but there are also people who have to make decisions in order for a company to survive in a game in which they are not known. Sentiment can also be a factor and if there is little confidence from Thai observations, you can ignore it, but then you are fooling yourself.
The antics of the virus are not the problem, but making the problem manageable.
many independent entrepreneurs worldwide have already gone under in this merry-go-round of virus control and lockdowns.
In the coming years it will only increase, simply because of the amount of restrictions that are imposed.
As a result, people like Bil Gates can buy up hundreds of thousands of hectares of agricultural land in, for example, the USA.
In these times the big money hits.
Entrepreneurship means looking ahead and one of the options that many starting entrepreneurs already use is the internet.
Even an expert will not be able to say anything else than the girlfriend asked in the above article, that at most (I think) it is a (I think) of 50/50 whether vaccinated tourists will be allowed back into Thailand without drastic measures.
An I think, which is really nothing more than a suspicion, or rather knowing nothing, and only hoping.
The tourist who stayed away before this pandemic, because of the continuous price increases, expensive Baht, etc.etc, will now be joined even more by those tourists who do not allow themselves to be prescribed expensive insurance and other measures.
The government, who thinks that the biggest problem is the pandemic and a rapid vaccination, completely ignores the fact that a large part of the tourist infrastructure is bankrupt, closed, or otherwise no longer contributes to a tourist business card with their whole mismanagement.
Many countries in Europe, which have benefited from a clearly better financial aid from their governments, will be much better off for their tourists in the coming years, because they have suffered less or hardly any clearcuts.
The big question in Thailand will be what the government will do for any tourists who still want to purchase these tourist disadvantages.
A government that simply continues with costly insurance requirements, and allows foreigners to pay more than their own people everywhere, and also quietly hopes that the tourist will also pay for the pandemic damage due to higher prices, for which they themselves still owe the most due to their own government being responsible,underestimating his future guests is great.
I am now 68 and since I was 25 I have been working in tourism research and education. My specialty is the choice of holiday destination. And I have to say that I believe very little of that friend's statements. I'll list the reasons:
1. Holiday destination is usually an emotional and not a rational choice. Whether people go on holiday to Thailand again has very little to do with the actual Covid situation, but how it is felt by the consumer. Existing restrictions (including all kinds of new and sometimes difficult to obtain papers) and how quickly they are lifted determine the possible turnaround in consumer confidence. And consumer confidence in the economy has only deteriorated, and debt has increased. Several bills will have to be paid in the coming years and everyone will feel this in their wallets. I do not expect any additional global tax on companies that have benefited from the pandemic, but perhaps minor adjustments (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-tax-companies-graphic-idUSKBN2AU17U);
2. Because people could not travel to certain (distant) foreign countries, consumers have discovered or rediscovered other destinations, including their own country and Europe. It is not unimportant that people can travel to these countries with their own transport because many people do not yet feel that flying is safe (see the infections on the way to the Olympic Games and back later);
3. People seem to think that consumers will simply return, but these first tourists will return home dissatisfied. The tourist and related offer is absolutely not what it used to be. Hotels, restaurants, bars, coffee shops, street vendors, markets, shops, etc. will remain closed because people are unable (financially or mentally) to reopen. In addition, some of the dismissed employees and self-employed people have found another source of income. See the developments in the catering industry in the USA. Because of the working conditions and salaries, people no longer want to work there. A good thing, I think, but that will mean a breakdown in some sectors. It is telling that yesterday I saw an advertisement in my FB for a new hotel formula where you are expected to keep your room clean and cook your food with the help of a chef. (!!)
4. At first glance, this breakdown will be greater in countries with a weak or missing social safety net. The breakdown in welfare states will take place later when the financial bills are passed on to the business community, which will try to charge them back to the consumer. There will be no increases in salaries and pensions.
5. For Thailand, the solution could lie in making the country more attractive for the permanent arrival of retired expats (visas, health insurance, own house and land). I don't see that happening for the time being because they will be fully committed to the recovery of tourism from China and India. And because there is no vision for the recovery of tourism in this country.
Chris, just because you believe that doesn't mean this has to be the truth.
Tourism has taken a hit all over the world. Once Corona is under control, the tourism sector will rebound like no other. People are waiting en masse to be able to travel again. This will be no different for Thailand.
Perhaps it is urgently time to stop the doom and gloom, because that is something that can be done here like no other.
The near future does not look rosy for Thailand due to the lack of vaccination. However, I'm willing to bet that the first quarter of 2022 will look very different. But then I am someone whose glass is always half full.
I would like to emphasize AGAIN that it is not just a question of demand but – I think – much more about supply. Where will all those people spend the night if 50% of the hotels remain closed? And where to eat out if 50% of the restaurants in Pattaya, Hua Hin and Phuket no longer open? It is not a welfare state here where the government comes to the rescue everywhere……
A solution could be for tourists to explore the hinterland (Chumporn, Chayaphum?), but there are almost no hotels and restaurants of the level that tourists expect.
Dear Chris,
you mention here Chumphon and that there are hardly any hotels and restaurants of the level that tourists expect. I guess you've never been here otherwise you wouldn't be writing that. Do you want a list, several pages long, with addresses of top hotels and restaurants? And. no Chinese. Most of the 'tourists' here are Thai people who come especially from Bangkok or the deeper South to enjoy the delicious seafood for which the region is known, fortunately not with mass tourism because they are not exactly here. to wait for. The result is now, despite the current crisis in this sector, the economy here has not collapsed and they just run on their own people.
Dear Lung Addie,
There are excellent hotels everywhere, including in Chiang mai and Udonthani. There are not enough of them with not enough beds to accommodate the flow of (by some expected) millions of tourists who can no longer (or do not want to) go to the well-known tourist places.
It should be noted that a luxury hotel in Chiang Mai has also been definitively closed.
https://globalexpatrecruiting.com/dhara-dhevi-hotel-in-chiang-mai-permanent-closure-a-barometer-for-the-hospitality-industry/
And that the Thais from the red areas can no longer travel to Chumporn. So the consequences of the pandemic will also be felt there, especially if it lasts longer than two weeks. And we will know at the end of this week. It does not look good for domestic tourism for the time being.
Dimitri,
This is the problem with people whose glass is always half full.
I can assure you that, from my tourism background as well as my teaching experience, I may be right. This has nothing to do with doom thinking at all. On the contrary, if you are a bit realistic and take a good look around at what is going on, you can only agree with me.
It has been suggested in the past that many of you always wear rose-colored glasses. I prefer to look at the real reality and find that in many cases I am not far off the mark.
You write about economics and welfare states; well I can tell you that every Western country came out stronger from the many previous crises and Covid is really no exception. On the contrary, if you look at the Netherlands, you should be glad that there was a dip because there was too much demand for personnel, the economy grew too fast and now even during this corona dip, an average person in 2020 has even added 4418 euros to his property as well as the owner-occupied (more than 60% owner-occupied home) has seen an increase in value of 20% in 1 year.
Do you once again ignore the fact that most hotels are not closed but are in low-power mode, maintenance and cleaning are being done and you have to wait until more guests are received again. In addition, an employee is found in 1 minute, so what are you talking about when you write that people cannot cope mentally and financially. If something can be earned with business, you immediately have an abundance of entrepreneurs who can handle it, so how can you write that people cannot handle it mentally, everyone just takes action when there is something to earn and that is the basis that it is financially possible because the entrepreneur earns after all.
I was talking about Thailand, not the Netherlands.
Me too, in point 4 you talk about the destruction of the welfare states. And in point 3 you mention the restart of companies in Thailand as a problem. Well delete this one from your argument because both are completely unrealistic.
Then mention that China will stay away from Thailand in the coming years because they try to keep corona out at all costs, look at the construction of a wall at the entire border with Myanmar, the terribly strict quarantine rules and solutions for infections. . You can certainly expect that the Chinese government will not let tourists leave for fun and entertainment in Thailand and that is why at least 25% of tourism in Thailand will disappear in the coming years.
Fortunately, most wealthy Chinese decide for themselves where they go on vacation, because individual freedom has increased exponentially over the past few years and people will no longer allow it to decrease.
And just for fun, read these articles:
https://nos.nl/artikel/2391110-economisch-herstel-na-corona-verdeelt-sterke-en-zwakke-economieen
https://nos.nl/artikel/2391104-de-bijenkorf-staat-te-koop
For years we have enjoyed going in the months of January and February, but unfortunately that is over now.
We have definitively stopped , primarily because the risk of corona is too great for us and the economic consequences now and in the future do not make it more attractive .
Shopping streets with many restaurants and shops that are closed.
And “last but not least” all the restrictions imposed to control the pandemic.
Sorry but it's no different.
This view strikes me as very realistic. With my too positive attitude I thought I could greet my Thai girlfriend again this summer. Things went well in Thailand for a long time. I thought few infections in Thailand and a high degree of protection through the vaccination in the Netherlands.
My girlfriend, working from our house about 50 km from Khonkaen, was still able to earn a reasonable living with her coffee shop. Now due to works the road near Mancha Khiri has been closed for 2 months.
This is partly due to the heavy rainfall, but I cannot escape the impression that this is also due to poor planning.
Also my girlfriend is still waiting for Pfizer. That wouldn't arrive until October. She has no confidence in other vaccines.
So no confidence in Astra Zenecca nor in Johnson&Johnson nor in Moderna. Where does this distrust come from? Does she have any medical knowledge or does it have to do with superstitions, as is usually the case in Thailand. She may be lucky that she does not live in Europe, because people here were not allowed to choose at all in the early days. I have many friends who got AZ. The French expats were recently vaccinated with Johnson&Johnson, just like many people in Belgium at the moment.
In recent years, the Thai government has leaned too much on the emerging tourism from China, which has certainly happened in recent years in the major tourist places.
BUT;
The Chinese are smart people and spend little to nothing and travel 9 out of 10 times in groups in cheap accommodations.
What is now the biggest problem for the Thai government that most Chinese like lust and entertainment such as large casinos (which are not in Thailand) and brothels and free smoke places (which is almost impossible in Thailand)
Most Chinese now go to Cambodia, Sihanoukville where almost all the land has been bought up and the language is now Chinese.
Sihanoukville has been almost completely rebuilt into a luxury resort full of lust and fun that Thailand cannot offer.
Yet another attempt to combat a number of prejudices:
– the government doesn't lean anything; the tourism industry sees that there is a large market in nearby China and develops products and services for this target group together with Chinese tour operators;
– the Chinese are no longer the Asian cheap charlies. In fact, they are the largest group of buyers of apartments in Thaialnd and spend millions of Baht. The real estate sector is feeling that now, in Bangkok but also in tourist cities.
– there are more and more young Chinese who speak enough English to travel independently and they do. They also have a lot of money and stay in the luxury hotels.
And yes, anyone who comes to Thailand to gamble has chosen the wrong country. Still, that didn't stop about 10 million Chinese from taking their 2019 holiday in Thailand. Apparently they can go two weeks without gambling. I won't comment on brothels and smoking, but the only people who think there are no brothels in Thailand are in the government. They go to nightclubs.
Thailand has become less attractive for farangs. Take the alcohol laws… A farang likes to drink a reasonable glass of wine with his dinner. A small bottle of wine costs a thousand baht in the supermarket. And then all those days when alcohol sales are prohibited... It's forcing your beliefs on someone else. And last year could a farang possibly get an entry visa if he had a condo of more than 3? million had. Or through that elite stuff. Then let them just say that they prefer that you only send your wallet to Thailand, but do not have to come yourself.
Yes, wine is not cheap here, but if you adapt to the Thais, you drink whiskey for a price for which you get Spa Rood in the Netherlands.
The sale of alcohol is prohibited on approximately 20 Buddhist days per year. The Thais solve this by stocking up on enough booze the day before or buying alcohol at the papa and mama shops. Ask any Thai in the street and he will gladly take you there for 20 Baht. From 2 to 5 in the afternoon you can't get alcohol in the official stores either. Well, I can really wait until 5 o'clock for my beer.
And a tourist visa valid for 30 days is free.
In short Adrian…………..
Dear Adrian,
those alcohol-free days that have existed for much longer, even when Thailand was still a heyday as a tourist destination, this was already the case. When I read comments like this I have the feeling that 'tourists' only come to Thailand to drink unlimited. Are these really 'tourists' in the real sense of the word? Some people turn every argument into an opportunity to bash Thailand. If you want a holiday in a country, with a good glass of wine with your dinner, well then you are going to a wine country and Thailand happens not to be. If you want that in Thailand, you will have to pay for it. Do you think that in other countries the tourism industry is charities? Well then you are wrong. Everywhere the tourism sector is focused on making money, nothing more or nothing less.
Being able to enjoy a good glass of wine with dinner is not the same as "getting drunk". And wanting to make money from tourism is not the same as the arrogance of only allowing people with a condo worth more than 3 million or members of the elite club.
Nice realistic piece, I hope, however, that you are wrong for at least 1 year, but I also fear it.