Sjaak has been following the discussions between, mainly, Tino and Chris about the political situation in Thailand for a long time. I am also following the responses to this with great interest. This made me decide to write down my opinion, for what it's worth, about Thai politics. This is to show a different vision and hopefully a discussion about it.
The price of a “democracy” according to the Thai model
What surprises me in all the discussions here on Thailandblog is that we expect Prime Minister Prayut to introduce democracy again. The prime minister has already clearly indicated that he does not want to do this according to the Western model. So why should we expect that from him, just the opposite will happen and there will be a form in Thailand that is more in line with what is happening in the countries around Thailand.
The main influence now, in Thailand, comes from China
We can forget about the influence of Europe, he will not look at that with an EU so divided and financially tied that the only support towards Thailand is a memo, which says that a junta is not wanted and whether changes can be made soon otherwise they will have to review the proportions. That's not exactly encouraging.
America under the businessman Trump will also not lift a finger to Thailand if there is no financial deal for America and how Thailand is governed has always been of no interest to America. And as long as America is still welcome in Thailand, she will not do anything.
Russia is only interesting if you want a kleptocracy as a form of government and that doesn't suit Thailand, or at least not openly.
The only thing Prayut could have taken from Putin is the statement; to my friends everything, and to my enemies the law.
That leaves China where Prime Minister Xi Jinping has clearly stated that the Chinese dream is to become the world leader in the 21st century. This is already apparent from the enormous growth of the military and especially the navy, which in 2030 will be almost double what America has now. And thus greatly limiting American influence and power. A game that is already being played around Formosa, the South China Sea and recently Trump's agreement with North Korea. And all this with a country that has a GDP per capita comparable to a country like the Dominican Republic. So in short, more money to the military and not much to the population.
What does that have to do with Thailand, you might think? And especially how does this affect the form of government? Let's first look at the connections that Thailand has with China, especially the military ones, which are not entirely unimportant to Prayut as a former general. The junta has therefore strongly strengthened military ties with China after the coup by purchasing vehicles and tanks, but also holding joint exercises. Furthermore, a joint weapon and maintenance center for the region in Thailand is being built to maintain the equipment.
The 1st of the 3 submarines has already been ordered and this means that we will soon have a maintenance and training facility in Sattahip. Manned by mainly Chinese people, it will also become an important support point for the Chinese fleet. You have to have something to spare for a bargain.
Also, negotiations are still going on about the canal through the Kra Isthmus, if that happens under Chinese leadership and with Chinese financial support, Singapore will be sidelined and China will control this trade with the plus that their naval ships will have to sail 3 days less to into the Indian Ocean through a Chinese-controlled route with bases in Thailand. This will give the Thai economy a huge boost in the form of container transhipment ports, but Thailand will have to realize that this is under Chinese management.
We also have to look at how China economically handles various projects such as the upgrading and expansion of the railways in Thailand. This also applies to projects on and around the Mekong River, which can all be regarded as part of the Chinese Silk Road. Because all this falls under the Chinese belt and road initiative. Which should not only be seen as a rail connection with Antwerp, but as a global whole with ports, transport and management completely under Chinese control and, of course, under Chinese control.
It is clear to me and I think also to the Prime Minister that the form of government chosen must be such that China is not frustrated. If we keep a slanted eye on Thai history in democracy and what the prime minister has said or has already recorded, we can already vaguely see something emerging. As it stands now, the form of government will be somewhat similar to Iran's, free elections open to anyone approved by the council of Islamic clerics. Once set out, these parties will have to follow the main lines and will adopt multi-year plans almost unanimously. The Thai will have "free elections" with a choice of local politicians approved by the junta.
If the junta is wise, it will make small constituencies and work on the American model with electoral votes. Because you can keep a good grip on that, especially if you also spread the elections over several weeks. Adjustments then become a bit easier if the population has not understood that they can only vote for the nominated persons.
So we have a democratically elected government with the monarch as head of state, all according to the constitutional rules set by the Junta. Where they can subtly mention that they have chosen the best of all forms of government to bring Thailand into the 21st century.
It will be clear that the Thai themselves will not improve on average, but that also applies to the average Chinese. And he is supposed to be very satisfied with his government. So Prime Minister Prayut will go all out for the “one man, one vote” principle, but explain it in such a way that as long as he is the man and has the vote, all is well. And anyone who disagrees will be corrected in a re-education camp. Xi can also advise him on how to do this in a way that is not too conspicuous. Because Prayut is already experimenting with that too, see the call for a conversation at a barracks for those who expressed their disagreement with him a little too loudly.
For the above described I have searched a lot on freely accessible websites and found a lot of information. If you want to know more about China's expansion policy, I recommend looking at Captain Fanell docs.house.gov/ This is not a completely controversial report in America, but with this in mind and a while to see how China is now doing world politics. it quickly becomes clear that especially Thailand as a neighboring country is confronted with this.
Submitted by Sjaak P.
It is undoubtedly true that China wants to greatly expand its economic, political and military influence. That works reasonably well, but we should not exaggerate, and certainly not where Thailand is concerned.
First, let's look at military spending, in billions of dollars, 2016
Far. States 602
China 150
Japan, South Korea and India combined: about equal to China
France, Germany and Ver. Kingdom together: about equal to China
Aircraft Carriers: Ver. Saten 10, China one, in a pilot phase
Investments in Thailand (varies fairly strongly per year, here 2016 in billions of baht)
Japan 80
China 54 (2015 only 15)
The Netherlands 29
Far. States 25
Australia 20
Furthermore, I think that economic and even military ties do not necessarily mean that strong political or ideological ties are forged. I would rather speak of no or any influence.
I believe that there is only one (1) type of democracy, I think a division into 'Western' and 'Eastern' is incorrect. Democracy means control of the population as a whole, a constitutional state (equality before the law) and freedoms (of opinion (media!), demonstration, information and assembly). And I can add openness and responsibility to that. This applies everywhere in the world. And all over the world, all these elements are more or less perfect, but never 100%. You could say that the say of the population in Europe has been reduced by the European Union. All those elements of a democracy are virtually non-existent in China and possibly somewhat more so in Thailand. At what imperfection, at what limit, you can say: this is no longer a democracy, I don't know either. I don't think Thailand is a democracy and there are people who also say that about the Netherlands. But the Netherlands does have many more democratic institutions and better democratic ideas.
Well,
The American system with electoral moons will suit Prayut very well (divide and conquer).
There are 796 districts in Thailand, so the same number of electoral moons to distribute. Anyone can form a political party and appoint an elector in each district. Can you imagine how much work and cost that is.
These electors then choose a prime minister (not a president, because we already have a king). This prime minister puts together a government for the next 4 years. Then you have a hugely fragmented electoral arsenal and the prime minister is "controlled" by the parliament of the electors. How divided do you want it.
It is a democracy, but directed by the Prime Minister. Same as in the USA.
Worth reading article with indeed a personal assessment of Sjaak. I have no opinion on this yet, because I want to check some of your statements with reality. But an instructive opinion. Nice to hear a different opinion than from Tino and Chris.
The phrase “Die, ye old forms and thoughts” from The Internationale seems appropriate here. The remaining lyrics have clearly been rejected by the Chinese leaders.
“Sjaak's opinion on Thai politics” results in a scenario in which the wealthy Thai families who traditionally have the reins in Thailand (in crown council, in administration, in economy, in armed forces, in …) engage in the regional geopolitical strategy of large neighbor China. Say flat on the stomach to save what can be saved.
I highly doubt that such modesty is typical of Thai leaders 🙂
Sjaak makes a kind of “force field analysis” to substantiate his opinion, but in my opinion he makes it selective. For example, he writes nothing about the Japanese role in numerous large infrastructure projects. He does not mention that Thailand also makes great efforts to attract (major) foreign investors in certain regions/zones, and Chinese investors are by no means the only target group, on the contrary.
Throughout history, Thai leaders have very rarely “bet one horse” for their own sake and that of their clan (family and friends). They prefer a multi-track policy, with multiple bases, especially in relation to the angry outside world that is difficult to control.
Mark,
Indeed, I have clearly highlighted China in this story and have not addressed the other investors in Thailand as Tino described above.
This to indicate that China is clearly trying to get a foot in the door in Thailand.
That the Junta will give it its own Thai independent twist is something we can expect. and indeed there will not be bets on 1 horse.
Probably, as Thailand has usually done, a path will be sought where one can spare both the cabbage and the goat and try to achieve a balance. And for me we should definitely include the Chinese influence. Just think of Africa and how people get money from China without asking for some economic concessions, so attractive for the Junta.
I certainly agree with Tino about his statement about democracy, I fully agree with that.
Only it is explained differently in different countries, I have lived in both Russia and Iran and have heard there, actually with amazement, how the people there believed that they were absolutely democratic.. And that they live in a free country.
Actually, as is happening in Turkey now.
So that explains my idea about the democratic content of the Junta, unfortunately I have to say.
Because the Junta also thinks democracy is a great thing, but it is so annoying that so many people want to participate who have a different opinion. It's hard as a driver
Think of it as furnishing your home, you as a driver already have it done in mind. And then your wife gets involved. That will be a democracy or a dictatorship on the square meter.
Sjaak
In fact, Thailand has been a Chinese province since time immemorial. Even in the Sukothai period it was owed to the Chinese Emperor. The war of reconquest on Birna was financed by China. Even Chinese mercenaries fought there.
Don't forget that Taksin the Great was half Chinese. His inciters also have Chinese roots.
Economically there are historically strong ties. CP, for example, has the 7eleven franchise for mainland China.
And we are indeed moving towards a Thai-style democracy, where the military will have a famous finger in the pie for at least 20 years. But was it different in South Korea? Malaysia also has a senate in which a considerable number of not elected, but appointed sensors sit. Nor has Singapore become an economic giant with a strong man at its head.
It is time that we realize and learn to accept that democracy according to the Western model is not an unqualified success. Certainly not after years of left-wing policy against the will of the people.
To be honest, a well-educated young person has a much better future in Thailand than in the Low Countries.
Just as communism waged was communism in disguise, so is democracy in disguise.
With democracy, you think you can say something, but that because of “bread and circuses” (smartphone and the orange offensive) people are lulled to sleep and dictators remain in both situations.
The system that prevails is called capitalism, that is what everything revolves around, both communism and democracy.
After the 2nd world war there has been some sort of division, but then it turned back to full capitalism and (super) wealth and power for the dictators.
Thailand with its government, the rich, will not mean much to the people. The only example they show is, be corrupt then you are the best that comes out. As a result, corruption is always rampant.
Well, if you get caught, if you don't camouflage your wrong actions properly, you'll end up hanging anyway. However, you do get time to escape the dance by fleeing. However, this does apply to the very highest, such as a Taksin and family. I think Thailand is selling its country to the Chinese, after all, they are family, right?
But where does that not happen, England has also sold London and the Netherlands is also selling to the rich, power people, companies. The EU was only created (conceived by Americans) to make it easier to transfer money for large, wealthy companies and people. Our elected ministers make as much of a mess as a Thailand or USA.
Never before has man been able to create a harmonious human whole in any form. The one at the top is always best off and the rest is casual damage. It is in man and will never disappear. A reset due to a 3rd World War still remains.
Every bird sings according to its beak and Thailand rows with what it has. With a captain at the helm who does not want to let his ideas go to waste. It has given Prayut and those close to him in politics, because he does not do it alone, the conviction that they are on the right track, although it will take some time before more progress becomes visible. The majority of Thai people are also averse to rules and do what they want. Apart from the fact that some questionable choices were made.
It is certainly recommended that you should not bet on a horse in cooperation with foreign countries in order to improve the economy in your own country. There is nothing wrong with that. Democracy at its best, where can we find it. It is always a compromise of groups in the population, who all think they have the wisdom. America with the democrats against the republicans and in the Netherlands well you know the parties by now. Often this does not go well together. Freedom, happiness is a utopia that humanity cannot handle. Rules and laws must exist and be enforced. When we see how humanity opposes each other's lives and goes for their own self and also on the level of faith, then I am afraid that this will not change soon. Power, ambition and prestige are magnets that keep pulling. There will have to be leadership and it is better not to leave anything to clarity. That will not please everyone and go against democracy, but to a certain extent I have nothing against it. I do think that a social heart should be visible and a strong empathy should go out to the people. As a parliament, they have the responsibility to ensure a balanced policy and a certain prosperity (poverty is actually unnecessary) for the compatriots, not forgetting that this country is part of a larger whole (so not just Thailand first) and that we ultimately everyone on this earth should be able to get it right, so that life becomes much better. And win-win situation for everyone, that gives real peace. Because the fact that it is a mess in many countries can be considered known. That there is always criticism that is not going to change. You can't make everyone happy. Differences remain and we will have to make do with them, without resigning ourselves to everything. Sometimes protests are necessary. Crimes also committed by government leaders cannot be tolerated. The ultimate power (by means of accountability) must be given to the people, but there lies the eternal clincher that the people are too divided and cannot deal with it properly. I think that the one who has all the wisdom has yet to be born and until then we can go on endlessly about this. Interesting, that's true, but that's it.
A few notes:
1. That there is only 1 democracy is an outdated position. see among others: http://www.integratedsociopsychology.net/global/modernisation-theory-vs-stratified-democracy/modernisation-theory-vs-stratified-democracy-4/
2. The influence of the Chinese on the Thai elite (and not only in Bangkok) is growing at the expense of influence from the west. This certainly has to do with the fact that the Chinese prefer to see a more feudal, authoritarian (or strong) government (they don't care whether they are military or elected politicians; that is for the country to decide) because they do better business with it. think they can do business.
3. The growing middle class in Thailand derives its income mainly from exports, especially with China. The Thai economy cannot survive without China. And there's nothing wrong with that at all. From an economic point of view, the Netherlands is also part of Germany. But there is more than business and money.
4. The strong nationalism of the Thais (although sometimes based on a misrepresentation of reality) will prevent the Thais from marrying off their country to another country. For example, Thainess could get a positive spin.