Postponing the election will hurt the economy
Recently, “The Nation” reported that postponement of free elections in Thailand could lead to a postponement of investments and the economie can harm.
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-cha said the February 24 election may be postponed due to preparations for the coronation ceremony on May 4 to May 6. The elections could probably take place on March 24
According to Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, president of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organization, this would be bad for investor confidence. According to economists, investments will be an important engine for economic growth in 2019. Investors will be cautious due to the uncertainty. It is possible that a new parliament will want to steer a new course with different laws and regulations.
Another problem could be decreasing consumption due to an increase in the Value-added tax (VAT). Thailand remains a major tourist destination. Tourists may spend less if prices rise. And of course that also applies to Thai. As a result, small and medium-sized businesses in particular will grow less than in neighboring countries with a lower price level, according to Worawoot.
Thailand is also currently struggling with a decrease in exports to China, partly due to the trade war between America and China. Despite the support and government commitments, exports to China are expected to decline from 7,2 percent last year to 4,6 percent this year.
Making the date of the elections unclear will not help either.
Source: The Nation
Yesterday it was announced that the elections will be on March 24. Earlier it was reported that the Election Commission preferred March 10 and the NCPO (Prayut) preferred March 24. Officially, it is entirely up to the Electoral Council, but we could also read that the government was exerting pressure in the background to choose the right option.
When I ask around among my Thai friends, they are on the one hand happy that elections are finally coming, but on the other hand the expectations that anything will actually change are low. The 'good mems' (khon die) do not make real democracy real reality.
Sources: I don't remember exactly so I googled for alternatives
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30361880
https://www.benarnews.org/english/commentaries/asean-security-watch/Zachary-Abuza-01142019143002.html
In addition to the whole corrupt government in which Thailand excels, I would like to take a moment to consider the "taxes" that are levied and specifically aimed at foreigners. Beer prices have risen enormously in recent years...so much that even Thais complained about it. The government has silently introduced a new element that the man in the street does not think about... Instead of raising prices again, they have silently reduced the contents of the beer bottles from 660 to 620cl... It saves quite a bit on your drink. . Wine prices have gone up more than double in recent years...Thais don't really care...because the farangs drink wine and "can afford it". In Spain a comparable simple wine costs 65 Thb / liter… In Thailand it now costs 333 Thb / liter, 5 times more expensive!… I leave…”E Viva Espana” with an “amazing smile”…to a better life, without visas, without a “90 day” report, without a mandatory reportable income to be “allowed” to be here…and where I can fully own a property…where the sun offers a pleasant climate 330 days/year…where I am “fine” with my health insurance...I could go on for a long time but spare you...Asta Luego!
Why did you emigrate to Thailand in the first place, when things are so much better in Spain?
That seems like a lot of wasted money to me.
To make a choice to which country to depart from based on the availability and cost of alcohol seems rather grim and angry to me; the other mentioned reasons for leaving all have to do with preparing yourself sufficiently to make a sound decision. If you are going to live outside the EU, for example, in a country belonging to the South-East Asia region in order to actually live there: then count on completely different norms and values. As for the weather: TH cannot be compared to Spain! Health insurance? There are 1001 affordable alternatives, but many come with a budget that is too small. Just go!
Hello Frits, I also disagree with Yan, in the past 15 years that I have been coming to Thailand it has all become more expensive and the Euro has lost a lot compared to the THB, +- 14 THB on 1 Euro. 13 years ago I even got 1 times a few cents more than 50 THB for 1 Euro. Now with difficulty 36 THB for 1 Euro.!! In connection with those 1001 alternatives to health insurance, I would like to receive a little information from you. Is it possible to email me the details of a Thai, decent health insurance policy for my upcoming permanent stay in Thailand, please. Now my official place of residence is still in Belgium and I visit my family in Thailand every 3 months, so I can stay insured with my current Belgian health insurance. From 2020 I would like to live permanently in Thailand, I only have 1 problem, find a decent and NOT too expensive health insurance because I need medication for a few minor health problems, I have needed medication for my stomach for years, eye drops for high pressure on my eyes and painkillers against Arthrosis of the joints. Thanks in advance, Kind regards. Regain.
When introduced, the rate was around THB 40 for 1 euro. It has indeed reached a top of 50 THB for 1 euro, but you cannot count on that. As a rough rule of thumb, taking 40thb=1eur is a lot more realistic.
See:
http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=EUR&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=2002&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=25&MM2=01&YYYY2=2019&btnOK=Go%21
What is the point of looking at historical prices, there is also no point in looking at the future because no one knows the prices. In the 90s I was a currency expert at a large American company and the only thing that mattered was buying out the risks through futures contracts. To those who struggle with the exchange rate, I think that if you have to worry about a baht more or less for your pension benefit, for example, you are living on the edge. Because let's face it: 2000 Euro net = at a rate of 37 baht = 74.000 baht and at a rate of 36 still 72.000 baht, and in recent years the rate has fluctuated around 37. I first came to Thailand in the early 1200s. and know that I then got 1400 to 27 baht for a guilder, comparable to say 30 to 36 baht for a Euro. I'm not going to say that it is so great that I get 53 baht for a Euro, while I have even experienced the top of 74.000. Well, if you still have to worry about this difference of 72.000 baht in a month with these kinds of large amounts of 2000 or 70.000, then you better take a look at how you are spending the other XNUMX because then you are doing something wrong, I can tell you as a financial expert .
Although you could enjoy skiing in the Sierra Nevada and sit on a terrace on the coast (Costa Tropical) in the afternoon, I found the winters in Spain too cold and very quiet in many places.
Except in the tapas places.
A beautiful country with a lot of culture.
Thank you for the link Rob, I didn't know that the Thb has ever been above 53, I only started traveling to Thailand from October 2003. Greetings. Regain.
With such outrageously high beer and wine prices, everyone should move to Spain or Portugal. Just this. Has the government introduced mandatory beer bottles with a smaller capacity? What a shame. And I just think that the beer breweries buy and fill those bottles.
If I look at all construction activities, it is not a good thing in that area if this is going to increase again. Rest in the tent will do the environment good.
We have been seeing the Euro sinking compared to the Thai Bath for months now. Some confidence in the local currency seems justified to me. I really do not see that postponing elections could lead to adverse economic results. By the way, the last sentence states that exports to China will decrease less compared to last year, which actually means a 2,6% increase. What is going on between China and the US at the moment is really that the US has taken a number of protectionist measures in the fiscal sphere, basically on the same scale as China has always been used to protecting its own market. That seems more like a catch-up than a trade war to me. In addition, US policy has led to lower oil prices worldwide. Good for every economy (except the wealthy oil exporting countries) Export commodity number 1 is Thai rice. I really don't see that such a product would be less purchased. And what also speaks against the statement are the countless Chinese investments in infrastructure in neighboring countries. This will actually strengthen the Thai economy. That depends on elections. Democracy, fine, but please introduce it gradually. To the consciousness of the people concerned. Not every nation is ready for democracy, see the Middle East, but also what is currently happening in France. Democracy seems to have reached a slippery slope there. The distance between politics and what the people want will really have to be reduced. So, it's not like we introduce a democratic system and that works forever, no, it's a process that needs constant attention. I also hope and trust that the Thai can deal with this in an adult way.
Puchaai Korat,
I will not go into everything you say, but only about the export of which you say that Thai (?) rice is number 1. No.
These are Thailand's export products. Rice is at number 2.3 with only 10%. Thailand is no longer an agricultural country. In most respects it is now as developed as the Netherlands after the Second World War. Remember that.
1. Machinery including computers: US$40.2 billion (17% of total exports)
2.Electrical machinery, equipment: $34.1 billion (14.4%)
3.Vehicles: $28.5 billion (12.1%)
4.Rubber, rubber articles: $16.3 billion (6.9%)
5.Gems, precious metals: $12.8 billion (5.4%)
6.Plastics, plastic articles: $12.7 billion (5.4%)
7.Mineral fuels including oil: $8.2 billion (3.5%)
8.Meat/seafood preparations: $6.3 billion (2.7%)
9. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $5.7 billion (2.4%)
10. Cereals: $5.4 billion (2.3%)
It's not that unambiguous Tino. The rice may not be Thailand's most important export product in value, but it is 100% produced here. In short, the 5,4 billion will flow directly to the Thai economy.
In Thailand we don't make complete machines, computers, cars and gems, but we import the components for a large amount and assemble them here, or add value to them and then we export them again. Actually, you should subtract the import value from the export value to calculate a net contribution to the Thai economy. And I can assure you that the rice will move up a few places.
Yes, Chris, the rice is 100% made in Thailand. The buffaloes pull the plows and the oxen the carts. And the (artificial) fertilizer comes from... oh, largely imported, I read somewhere, 1.7 billion dollars. So those 5.4 billion do not flow directly to the Thai economy…
The (too) strong Baht is something the country should be concerned about.
As Tino points out, rice has long ceased to be the most important export product. Yes in volume, but certainly not in (added) value.
The policy of the current military government is aimed at the big (Sino-Thai) entrepreneurs. These have seen their total company values increase significantly in recent years. However, the little man complains stone to bone and sees his business opportunities and profits only diminish. Not surprising, because this government and the top officials at economic / financial ministries are employed (or related) to the super rich in Thailand, and do not benefit from their own policies.
In recent months I have made 2 trips through the east and north-east of Thailand, and have really spoken to no one there who would like to continue with the current rulers. Everyone is talking about elections, and would like to cast a vote.
The Thai (ordinary) people not yet ready for democracy? The contrary. It is precisely the super-rich elite who are not (or do not want to) be ready for this, because they have less influence on a government elected by those stupid ordinary people.
And so it is, Petervz. I have the same experiences. Ordinary Thais complain bitterly about the current government and eagerly await a return of greater control. In this way, they hope to gain more influence in the local area.
So it's not like that. A large part of the normal Thai population lives in the Isan and I have lived there for many years and these people don't care about politics and elections at all. They are busy surviving. So I don't know who these figures are talking to, but I have daily contact with my fellow villagers (in Khmer) and my family in various languages and they laugh when I tell them the stories of what the farang say and think.
Reading is an art. I put into words what the ordinary Thai tell me. So it is not what that farang says or thinks, but the Thai.
Reading is indeed a great art. Since when my fellow villagers with whom I have contact in Khmer have farangs. The fact that I can talk to my THAI family in various languages is because many of them have studied and also speak English in addition to Thai and Khmer. My wife also speaks Dutch, English and German, but that doesn't make these people farang.
With some trial and error, ordinary Thais will be able to deal with democracy just fine. They also often have ideas about how things could be better and fairer. As Peter indicates, it is the people at the top who oppose democratization and fair distribution of prosperity, legal equality, freedoms, etc. They believe in paternalism and holding on to the money. Personally, I think that this certainly does not benefit the country as a whole, and by extension the economy.
See ao: https://www.thailandblog.nl/achtergrond/thailand-ontwricht-dood-thaise-stijl-democratie-slot/
How do you get to a falling Euro Puuchaai Korat? It is precisely the rising Baht against most global currencies including the US Dollar. A development - supported by the Thai government - that is pleasing to the rich Thai (because their money abroad is worth much more) I read in various Thai newspaper reports, but is becoming a disaster for Thai exports.
Your story about a worldwide lower oil price is also not correct because it is not low at all.
And then introduce democracy gradually? Sorry, but it was already there in Thailand - even if people didn't always handle it well - but it has been greatly disrupted by the power grab of the junta.
For me personally, the exchange rate is of course the most important thing in relation to my spending pattern. I take the liberty of assuming that this also plays a significant role for others. My pension will be spent anyway, because in my grave it will no longer be of any use to me. But now that the rate has become visible even below 36, I think twice about making certain expenses. Just yesterday I was sitting on a terrace and overheard some American men talking to each other, one of whom indicated that his income had been reduced by about 25.000 baht a month due to the exchange rate change and he had difficulty explaining to his girlfriend that she still had to tighten their belts and that they could no longer afford certain expenses. I hope that relationship remains good, but that Thailand has become more expensive in an understatement. I do have some understanding for Yan's remark and if this list is correct and he has the opportunity to do so, I wish him success in Spain. Advancing insight sometimes leads to a new step. So hasta luego.