Society in Thailand is aging rapidly
Aging society in Thailand
De aging society and declining birth rates are hampering Thailand's development, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) warns.
The BOT therefore once again draws attention to the demographic imbalance. Already 16 percent of the population is older than 60 years and civil servants are allowed to retire at that age. For a number of companies, the retirement age is even 55 years. As a result, the number of retirees in Thailand is rising rapidly.
As a result, Thailand may already be in trouble in a few years' time, while the problem will only arise much later in the surrounding countries. Compared to other Asian countries, Thailand has far more elderly people than young people. The age distribution across the population has grown quite skewed, with far-reaching consequences for labor participation.
It is clear that this has an impact on economic development. For example, more and more Thai women are no longer active in the labor process from the age of 45. They choose to care for children, grandchildren and the elderly. Japanese women, on the other hand, are still active in the labor market at age 55. Thai women who stop paid work also have little education. This makes re-entry difficult. The BOT therefore wants better training for young women and more flexible working hours, so that people can combine care for the family with work.
Now an average of 4 people work compared to 1 non-working Thai. The prognosis shows that in the year 2031 the ratio will be 1 : 1. In 2035 there will even be a strongly aging society.
Until now, the government has not recognized the seriousness of the aging population. There is no measure or interest and there is only a short-term vision.
Source: Hello Magazine
In Thailand, 16 percent are 60 years or older, in the Netherlands that is 25 percent. The birth rate is approximately the same as the Netherlands: 1.6 per woman.
Fortunately, in both countries the number of workers is maintained by immigration.
The number of people over 60 in Thailand was already 2017% in 17 and will increase to 2021% in 20. By 2040, 32% of the population in Thailand is expected to be over 60. The number of workers is alarmingly decreasing, dropping by 9 million in this period. This is not an issue at all in the Netherlands because it has a relatively young population. So these 2 countries are opposites in this regard and the Netherlands is even an exception in Europe because it does not have a rapidly aging population. This is in contrast to Thailand where there is no replacement of workers except through immigration. Thailand, together with Japan and China, is one of the three top countries that are struggling with a rapidly aging population.
I doubt that the Netherlands has a relatively young population.
Betse Ger, Italy is another example of a country that is aging faster than Thailand. So Thailand does not belong to the top three. Maybe/probably not even in the top ten. See:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Bev%C3%B6lkerungspyramide_Thailand_2016.png
https://i2.wp.com/www.redpers.nl/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/italy-population-pyramid-2016.gif
Dear Tino, am I reading here a plea to proceed selectively with immigration, also in the Netherlands? Because illiterate Somali farmers, for example, only worsen the ratio between working and non-working people. I would be in favor of such a selection because the Netherlands can be a bit selfish in view of the major problems that are looming in the economic field.
Do we work to live, or do we live to work. What would be against living on this earth with fewer people and allocating the benefits to a better distribution. Perhaps the increase in the elderly and the decrease in births is a blessing for this world. I just thought this….
Aging is certainly a blessing because in the not too distant future more and more work will also disappear in Thailand due to increased robotisation and AI.
The BoT rightly has an eye for the impact of demographics on the medium and long-term development of the country. Political and military leaders are not looking beyond the upcoming elections. The party programs and communications demonstrate this.
Of particular concern is the high private debt of households in Thailand. Too many people threaten to drag their debts into old age. They barely manage to cough up the interest. Their dwindling number of children/heirs are themselves weighed down by heavy debt, making it impossible for them to bear the debts of the parents. This results in (too?) Many bad credits, which can never be repaid.
This situation threatens to become a major challenge for the Thai banking sector. The BoT has warned about this before. This problem also falls on deaf ears among (candidate) policy makers.
The Non Performing Loans in Thailand stood at 2018% in September 3. (in 1999, after the economic crisis, that was 44.7% and the lowest number was 2.2% in 2014).
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/non-performing-loans-ratio
The total private debt in Thailand is 80% of national income, in the Netherlands it is 200%. Half of that debt in Thailand is mortgages, a quarter is other goods (cars and such) and a quarter is unsecured debt (lots of credit cards).
I think there is no major cause for concern.
Sorry Tino, but Non Performing Loans from last year 2018 say little to nothing about the ability to repay capital by future old people. Those people still pay back at least the interest to the banks today. The capital repayment is a structural problem that, partly due to repeated refinancing, is postponed over time … until the professional income decreases or disappears. Currently, this is not visible in the figures on registered non-performing loans.
From a supporter of FFW I would expect more depth perception in the future 😉
The percentage of private debt in relation to GDP is relevant in this respect, but equating the repayment capacity of the Dutch one to one with that of the Thai is anything but.
Whether or not you are covered by a fixed-value mortgage or debt balance insurance is of course also important.
I don't know how you got that 200% but it's close to 50%. According to the European standard you should be below 60%. Unfortunately, the Netherlands does not meet this requirement in many other countries.
Tino talks about private debts. The standard of 60% refers to the national debt. Fortunately, Thailand also scores relatively well on this.
But on the other hand, a few years ago it was very difficult for my girlfriend to find a job after a 2 month visit to the Netherlands, because if you are over 38 you will be refused, so let them deal with that discrimination first. do what.
She now lives in the Netherlands and found work there within a month.
In my opinion, corruption hinders the development of Thailand
Dear Lodewijk, fortunately the picture is not as bad as you described. This is evidenced by the current population structure (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Bevölkerungspyramide_Thailand_2016.png).
In 2016, there were approximately 5,2 million men aged at least 60. There were 20 million in the 60-20,3 age group. So your factor 4.
In 2031 (i.e. 15 years later) there will be 6,5 million working people (the current young people) while 7,1 will move on to the over-60s. Even without deaths, the factor between working and older people goes to about 1,6: 19,7 against 12,3. In reality, that will be close to 2. So it goes very fast indeed, but fortunately not as dramatically fast as you have written.