Pheu Thai Party (kan Sangtong / Shutterstock.com)
Bayan da aka kirga fiye da kashi 91%, tseren wuya da wuya ya bayyana yana kunno kai tsakanin (wata jam'iyya mai biyayya ga dangin Shinawatra) da Palang Pracharath, wanda ke goyon bayan Firayim Minista na yanzu Prayut. A matsayi na uku ya zo sabuwar jam'iyyar Future Forward Party ta shugaban jam'iyyar Thanathorn.
Jam'iyyar Democrat ta Abhisit ba ta taka rawar gani ba kuma Abhisit ya sanar da cewa zai fice daga fagen siyasa kamar yadda ya bayyana a baya idan jam'iyyarsa ba ta zama mafi girma ba.
Matsayin shine yanzu:
- Pheu Thai: kuri'u miliyan 6,8
- Palang Pracharath: miliyan 6,6
- Gaba: miliyan 4
- Bhumjaithai: miliyan 2,9
- Jam'iyyar Democrat: miliyan 1,6
Kungiyar Action Coalition for Thailand, karkashin jagorancin Suthep Thaugsuban, da sauransu, ba ta wuce matsayi na takwas da kuri'u 156.909 ba.
Idan muka kalli rarraba kujeru, wannan yana ba da hoto na farko:
- Pheu Thai: kujeru 129
- Palang Pracharath: kujeru 117
- Gaba: 78 kujeru
- Bhumjaithai: kujeru 49
- Democrats: 49 kujeru
- Thai Liberal Party: kujeru 10
- Jam'iyyar Chartthaipattana: kujeru 9
- Sabuwar Jam'iyyar Tattalin Arziki: kujeru 6
- Haɗin kai na Tailandia: kujeru 5
- Thai Friend Party: 5 kujeru
- Puea Chat Part: 5 kujeru
- Jam'iyyar kiyaye gandun daji ta Thai: kujeru 2
- Chart Pattana Party: 2 kujeru
- Jam'iyyar Wutar Lantarki ta Kasa; 1 wurin zama
- Jam'iyyar Mulki ta Jama'ar Thai: kujera 1
- Jam'iyyar Wutar Lantarki ta Thai: kujera 1
- Jama'a Progressive Party: 1 kujera
- Jam'iyyar Civilized ta Thai: wurin zama 1
- Sabuwar Jam'iyyar Palangdharma: kujera 1
Majalisar wakilai tana da kujeru 500.
Source: Bangkok Post
Yaya rarraba wurin zama ke aiki?
Akwai kuri'u 1 ne kawai tsakanin 2 da 200.000, amma 1 yana da kujeru 12.
Akwai kuri'u 4 tsakanin 5 da 1.300.000, amma dukkansu suna da adadin kujeru iri daya.
Don haka adadin kuri'u kawai ba shine kawai maɓallin rarraba ba?
Ko kuma akwai "masu zaɓe" na Amirka da kuma NL na farko (wanda aka zaɓa ta hanyar majalisun larduna) ko wani abu makamancin haka?
Na farko ya wuce tsarin gidan waya. Kamar Amurka. Kuna samun ɓangarorin fayyace, amma sakamakon ƙarshe saboda haka ba daidai ba ne na yawan goyon baya. Ba za a yi amfani da wannan lokacin ba saboda majalisar dattawa (1st chamber) da NCPO junta ta nada kawai kore ne, sojojin kore.
Duba misali https://www.thailandblog.nl/politiek/verkiezingen-thailand-24-maart-hoe-werkt-het-systeem/
Kuma wannan tambaya mai karatu daga Lahadi: https://www.thailandblog.nl/lezersvraag/blijft-generaal-prayut-premier/
Abubuwa biyu na farko da suka fito mini da wannan matsakaicin maki (91% kirga):
- Jam'iyyar Prayut ta Phalang tana da wuya da wuya tare da Phue Thai tare da fiye da 25% kuri'u, Phalang ya yi ... na musamman ... kama. Samun iska.
- Lambobi masu kyau don Gaban gaba, tare da tallafi zuwa 20%. A cikin matsayi na baya, har yanzu da alama Bhumjaithai
(10%+). zai dauki wurin.
– sauran jam’iyyu sun kada kuri’a kasa da kashi 10%, ga alama ‘yan jam’iyyar Democrat a rubuce. Abhisit ya tashi.
- yawan fitowar 65% yana da ƙasa sosai, musamman idan aka kwatanta da tsinkaya na 95% masu fitowa da kuma yawan masu fitowa a farkon 90s. Da na sa ran 80-85% kaina.
- http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30366493
- http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/breakingnews/30366487
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Tabbas, akwai wani abu mai kifin game da shi…. Prayut (sojoji) dole ne kuma za su ci gaba da mulki. Wannan abin da ake kira Catch-up yana da aƙalla m. Fitowar fitowar kuma da alama ta yi ƙasa sosai. Zaben, a nan Isaan na tafiya da kyau, kowa ya kada kuri'a. Ba a yi imanin cewa yawan fitowar jama'a ba ya kai kamar yadda ake iƙirari.
Yanzu dai mu jira mu ga ko kawance zai samu rinjaye.
Amma a ra'ayina, muddin babu batun Trias Politica, to babu batun dimokradiyya
Shin zabukan jiya sun kasance cikin ‘yanci da dimokuradiyya? Wata kawuna tana makarantar sakandire kuma ta bayyana mani kamar haka: Dole ne zaben dimokradiyya mai ‘yanci ya cika sharudda 5:
1. Kowanne babba ya iya yin zabe.
2. Dole ne ku iya zabar jam'iyyu da yawa.
3. Ba sai ka fadi abin da kake zabe ba.
4. Dole ne dukkan bangarorin da za su halarci taron su sami isasshiyar damar shiga kafafen yada labarai.
5. Dole ne a samar da kyawawan ka'idoji na kidayar kuri'u.
Ina tsammanin maki 1 zuwa 4 suna da kyau. Yanzu maki 5 ne.
Nichtje ya kuma ruwaito cewa ba game da kuri'un ba ne, amma yadda ake kirga su. A halin yanzu ana yin Allah wadai da na karshen.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1650860/unofficial-poll-results-delayed-again-as-complaints-mount
An kuma takaita hanyoyin yada labarai da yakin neman zabe har zuwa karshen watan Janairu. Yayin da a kowace Juma'a muna ganin maganganun farfaganda na Firayim Minista kuma Janar ya zagaya cikin kasar tare da ministocin tafiya don nuna fuskarsa. Har yanzu sauran jam'iyyun ba su sami damar shiga gonar ba. Haka kuma akwai tsauraran dokoki masu sarkakiya a fagen kafafen sada zumunta, alal misali, wadanda jam’iyyu ke dandana su a matsayin sanda don tada su. Sakamakon 4 don haka bai yi nasara ba.
Shirya zabukan yana da matukar wahala, zaben na karshe (wanda aka ki amincewa da shi, juyin mulki) shi ne a lokacin bazara na shekarar 2014. Yana da ma'ana cewa majalisar zabe ta yi kurakurai da yawa... tari. An ba da rahoton kurakurai da yawa, kamar kuri'un da ba daidai ba (don haka ba daidai ba) a wurare daban-daban, kuri'a a cikin ambulan da ba daidai ba (don haka ba daidai ba), ƙidayar ƙirƙira, yawan kuri'un da aka ƙi, ƙarin ƙuri'u fiye da masu jefa ƙuri'a da ƙari mai yawa. Bugu da ƙari, shawarar jefa ƙuri'a ta ɓarna daga mutumin da ke zaune a Jamus, wanda ya kamata ya kasance a kan siyasa.
Da alama gaba gaba da Pheu Thai suna tafiya lafiya sosai. Ko ta yaya, wannan shine hoton da aka nuna akan labarai a yau.
Wannan na iya nufin cewa Palang Pratcharat (karanta: gabaɗaya) zai kasance a gefe.
Wanda ba haka yake nufi ba. Don haka idan wannan haɗin gwiwa tsakanin Pheu Thai da Future Forward zai yi tasiri, ina tsammanin za a ɗauki mataki. Kuma hakan bai yi kyau ba.
Ba ni da cikakken bayani a gare ni dalilin da yasa Palang Pratcharat ke da ra'ayin samar da haɗin gwiwa tare da Gaba. Wannan FFP ba shi da alaƙa da Palang Pratcharat. Kuma cewa Palang Pratcharat na iya ƙirƙirar haɗin gwiwa tare da Peu Thai gaba ɗaya ba a cikin tambaya.
Zai sake zama lokaci don bi da hankali.