Let's start with a song. Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-ocha wrote it very personally shortly after the coup in May 2014. Since then it has been broadcast daily on Thai television. The video below of that also gives the English translation, the Thai text and a phonetic representation.
Also good for learning Thai! Here I give a translation into Dutch of about the first half, the second half is almost a repetition. Read and then listen!
Giving happiness back to the people
The day when the nation, the king and the people will live without danger
We want to protect them with heart and soul, we promise
Today the nation is threatened with unrest everywhere
We want to act and save the nation before it is too late
How long will it take for love to return
Please wait a while until we overcome our differences
We will do what we promise, just give us a minute
To restore the beauty of the land
We will be honest, we ask for your trust and faith
The nation will soon improve, we want to return happiness to you, the people.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpFYaHTvFFo[/embedyt]
At the text 'Please wait a while until we overcome our differences We will do what we promise, just give us a little while' we see a line of soldiers with automatic rifles at the ready. Strange with this text. Who might that enemy be?
Back to the statement.
I follow the Thai written media. (Thai television is owned by the government and the string forces, with the exception of ThaiPBS, and is strictly censored). I see a turnaround in the last few months. Where previously there was a lot of positive and neutral reporting about the junta, and the occasional critical note, it is now the other way around. I hardly read any positive news anymore, some neutral reporting and a lot of negative news and especially comments.
What is the cause of that cover? Let me name a few possibilities:
- The continued postponement of elections. Prayut promised in 2014 that democracy would be restored in 2015. He promised that every year: next year! Now it may be February 2019. That contradicts the above song which speaks of 'mâi naan', which means some, short time.
- The watch scandal of Deputy Prime Minister Prawit. He has been seen with 25 very expensive watches, worth a combined $1 million, that were not listed on the mandatory declaration of his assets in 2014. No one believes his "borrowed from a friend who passed away" apology. In recent years there have also been some unsavory things that have been covered up: the 'commission' paid for the seven statues of kings in Hua Hin and the theft of a plaque commemorating the 1932 revolution.
- The lack of an increase in income of a large part of the population, although the economy is doing reasonably well with only half the growth of the surrounding countries.
- The reports of the beatings in the army to which the authorities reacted with indifference.
- The increasingly oppressive bond of suppressing freedoms of speech and demonstration. Demonstrations for a better environment are also banned and thwarted.
- The increasing certainty that the armed forces will continue to have a big finger in the pie after the elections through the appointed Senate and the possibility of a prime minister who has not been elected.
- The rapprochement between the two major parties, Pheu Thai and Democrats, in opposition to the postponement of elections.
- The fact that part of the yellow shirts, who used to oppose Thaksin and Yingluck, are now turning against the junta.
- The fact that not much has come of the promises (especially reconciliation) in the above song, except for the (deceptive) rest.
What do dear readers think? Agree or not? And why then? Discuss the Statement: 'The regime in Thailand is on its last legs!'
About this blogger
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Born in 1944 in Delfzijl as the son of a simple shopkeeper. Studied in Groningen and Curacao. Worked as a doctor in Tanzania for three years, then as a general practitioner in Vlaardingen. A few years before my retirement I married a Thai lady, we had a son who speaks three languages well.
Lived in Thailand for almost 20 years, first in Chiang Kham (Phayao province) then in Chiang Mai where I liked to bother all kinds of Thai with all kinds of questions. Followed Thai extracurricular education after which a diploma of primary school and three years of secondary school. Did a lot of volunteer work. Interested in the Thai language, history and culture. Have been living in the Netherlands for 5 years now together with my son and often with his Thai girlfriend.
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The wish is the father of the thought, Tino!
That's certainly true, Gringo. It is certainly my wish, that is clear. Soon my Thai son will return to Thailand. But you actually avoid the fact that it is also the wish of many Thais. My point is that that wish may become reality in the short term. That is also the opinion of many Thais. That is what I want to draw attention to.
Although it is not all rosy in the US and EU, I find it incomprehensible that there is no more pressure from these superpowers on the junta to hold the promised elections in November, as was already promised.
Strange, normally I always hear reactions to these kinds of comments and 'likes' that the outside world should not interfere with Thailand. By the way, I agree with Tino's story completely.
Could be, you hit the nail on the head about feelings that are alive, but with a junta such a feeling is less relevant than with an elected party, of course. Certainly points 1 to 6 are fully in line with expectations. The coup itself was also fully in line with expectations; it had been predicted for months. Shutdown and restart it was indeed, but perhaps not as intended. The Thai (but actually even more so some farangs because they should know better) who, without the slightest sense of irony, followed Suthep Thaugsuban with whistles 'against corruption', of all places, can best scratch their heads. Because there is still corruption (did anyone really expect otherwise?), less economic growth (although large parts of the policy have simply been taken over from Pheu Thai) and a lot less freedom. Count out your profit.
I don't know but I hope so.
Of course you fish for a lot of approval. After a year or so (and then certainly in TH), every regime is on its (very) last legs. Only I don't think that will lead to a completely different (democracies that used to be called once in these western regions) regime - some puppets will be replaced and then they will continue, hopefully (that's mainly my opinion) with some more techies/ financial experts and less "order is order and don't ask anything else" generalized ties. (although TH has 1000s of them).
After having experienced both red and yellow protests very close up in BKK and the basically total paralysis of any form of government, I think TH really has no need for such a thing. And that is unfortunately what every "democracy-chosen" regime in TH is aiming for.
The very best in my opinion would be to hire some good drivers from Singapore for about 5 years and let them put the country back on track, including fighting corruption.
Well Tino, where do I start?
Is there anything positive to report. Yes, the extremely rich have become extremely rich. That is not unusual because the policy is aimed at this. Other than that I don't know anything to mention and also follow the Thai-language news. Thai PBS also has quite good programs that are broadcast fairly uncensored. Still, this group can hold out for a long time, especially if they can continue to fill the most strategic army positions.
The problem with civilian politics is that I see few suitable candidates who can concretely take over the helm. It remains the old clique and see little or no new blood with good ideas.
You should not look at these kinds of countries through our democratic lens.
First of all: resignation = loss of face and…. loss of income for those in power. They don't just go like that.
2nd: there is no alternative, except for the corrupt incompetent cabal that has been there in the past.
3rd: the population is not used to democracy and will hardly strive for it, except for a somewhat rowdy, highly educated upper class influenced by the West. The average Thai will accept all this, just like the traffic jams and floods.
I suspect that points 3 and 9 in particular play a fairly important role in this.
Point 3. The economy…
The “Rich” Thai would rather see a more economic-oriented policy. This junta keeps the country afloat, but they are more than likely not aware of any economic innovation. The elite sees this with sorrow. They also know that with better economic policies they can maximize their profits. And I suspect that this group is just now starting to grumble a bit… And they are being heard.
The fact that the little man still has to get by with 300 Thb per day, unfortunately they are not very awake, I think…
Point 9. It's starting to take a little too long for everyone.
I fear that the gap between the Dems and Pheu Thai (yellow and red, say) is still the same. Confrontations between these parties are now of course nipped in the bud, which is not a bad thing in itself. But trying to get these two groups around the table to have a constructive dialogue together, I haven't read much about that yet. Hopefully I'm wrong about this, after all I don't read everything.
I just hope that if the junta steps down and elections are held, the fighting will not erupt again in all its intensity. The Thai deserve better…
My thought…
Frenchie
Dear Franske,
Your thought will most likely be correct.
It's often someone trying to tap into a subject you can't change anything about.
Hasn't it always been groups of people in power capitalist or socialist who serve their own clique,
now in thailand it is the military who do it.
I personally feel that those so-called know-it-alls are expressing displeasure at their failure to fit in.
Prayut's biggest flaw is that he has done nothing to bring yellow and red parties together. They are not allowed to do anything, be quiet and wait. He should have put them together to make the new laws and improve the constitution. They may now only be united in the fact that they themselves want to get back into the plush. There will probably be another populist election campaign to win votes. Then red will win again. Hopefully but not likely with a less grasping leader. Then the yellows and the army will look for the moment to intervene again. I hope there will be more parties so that they learn to work together in a coalition. I think red and yellow are still as far apart as they were before the coup. If you can't talk, you can't come together.
Furthermore, I must unfortunately say that many Thai people in my area still sympathize with Prayut. Nice and quiet, the economy is improving, the minimum wages are going up again and we can still pay civil servants for additional favors..
“The biggest flaw of Prayut is that he has done nothing to bring yellow and red parties together. They are not allowed to do anything, be quiet and wait. He should have put them together to make the new laws and improve the constitution.”
This is a striking observation, Nicolaas. What Thailand needs is a leader who preaches reconciliation and cooperation and also puts words to action.
I doubt whether the regime is on its last legs. I very much agree with the comments/facts Tino lists here. But the military is in full control. Even after free elections would have been held. They hold the majority in parliament and can therefore block any bills proposed by an elected civilian government.
The past has not exactly excelled in democratic cooperation between Pheu Thai and the Democrats. On the contrary. If they can "kill" each other, they certainly won't fail to do so. Therefore, every move an opponent makes is ridiculed or challenged through all kinds of procedures.
The fact that they are now apparently seeking rapprochement with each other is forced by the lack of free elections. Prajuth understands all this, of course, so every time he gives a little hope for more democracy, in order to keep everyone calm. So porridge and wet. And of course he sits comfortably on the plush with all the might (article 44) you could wish for. He doesn't want to give that up so easily. I don't think there will be an election this year, maybe in 2019.
Think that the army will hold on to its position for a long time, even after elections.
This in itself can lead to unrest and conflict.
Reminds me of this: A man convinced against his will ( the elected politicians ) is of the same opinion still ( the all-controlling army ).
If things are going much worse for the Thai population than at present, strong resistance could arise, then things could go quickly.
However, I don't see it coming any time soon.
Nico B
Interesting comments, conclusions, expectations and assumptions from Westerners !!!!
However, it is in the first place "good luck" for the Thai population and that's where it stays
“deafening silence” because they are too busy with other priorities and apparently this regimen for sweet
take cake.
I assure you, Fred, that what I wrote above is for the most part the opinion of Thais as I follow it on various websites. I was surprised when some of my son's Thai friends, whom I had never suspected of political interest and usually posted images of food and women, suddenly started making sarcastic remarks about the current regime. I can tell you that there are many more small and local demonstrations that are not mentioned in the mass media…
Yes, we look at it through a prosperity lens, but we wish the Thai population a better life with a little more prosperity, but in my opinion the population is not that demanding and the new generation will first have to have a good education to offer more resistance and come up with democratic ideas, so it will take some time. unfortunately….
If you let go of the sentiment, it doesn't matter. Each term of government comes to an end, so statistically this one too. The question should really be: What does the country benefit from?
The situation of political antagonism between the Yellows and the Reds has never been and will never be resolved.
Seen from a historical perspective, the army is a stabilizing factor, which is actually applied over and over again. And like any government in the country, they naturally take care of themselves first.
This is how this society works, just look at lower governments and the status of civil servants (Thailand has countless)
In my opinion, all this is independent of the good intentions that every government, and therefore this one, has.
After all, the practice can turn out differently and yes, then it sometimes gets stuck in action, nonsensicalness, lust for power, hunger for money, etc. Power corrupts, especially in Thailand!
Agree with the statement: The regime is on its last legs.
Regards Joy
Dear Joy,
I have not immersed myself in the culture, but it seems to me that it is imposed from the top down and now it can also be, just like in the Netherlands, that the officials are so powerful that they bend things to their will.
Perhaps it is the elite who also do nothing when there are floods.
What is said above is what a large portion of bloggers claim on a website, which makes me wonder how many are they? Are they the opinion of the people? Also comments my son says come on say that's like who do you hang out with because everywhere you find people who make sarcastic remarks about anything and everything.
It is true that every government cannot please everyone and then sarcastic remarks are made.
I can only agree with the statement. Last Sunday evening I posted a comment with a selection of current affairs that largely corresponds to the list that Tino shares with us here. See:
https://www.thailandblog.nl/nieuws-uit-thailand/prayut-en-regering-ligt-vuur-horloge-affaire-en-uitstel-verkiezingen/#comment-510162
Many Thai - and all other earthlings - want nothing more than a decent life: not having to worry about essential matters (food, health, income, roof over your head, good future for the children). The Junta does not make much of this, but the regime does not tolerate criticism or real participation. They say they listen to the people, but the military and their elite friends then put their own spin on it because the number 1 interest is themselves. The elite must remain on their pedestal. But the Thai want nothing more than real participation. Even in the corner of the PAD, the supporters are concerned that it will take a long time to restore parliament to its former glory. They are happy that Thaksin has been eliminated, but a senate that is half green does not make those people happy either. It squeaks and creaks more and more. If the trends continue and the people fail to get their elections again, the demonstrations will only increase. Hopefully without bloodshed…
Can the Thai deal with democracy? Certainly. But the elite cannot tolerate empowered citizens, let alone that 'reconciliation' can only take place when all the high people still walking around - from the prime ministers to star generals - account for clawing, inflicting victims and other allegedly unethical practices. But I don't see that happening yet. Or it should come to a revolution. But that's not a happy scenario either.
Unfortunately, that is the wish, but the military continues to rule quietly.
The ban on demonstration and the fact that President Trump has invited the head of state and the EU with flexible sanctions…….
Power….corrupts and you see that everywhere where military has sent parliament home.
For now there will be no elections in Thailand as long as the Thai people do not take to the streets and protest.
Where are the students…..
It is not possible for the time being because the military has a taste for grabbing. (Watches – luxury yachts and luxury resorts)
By the time of February 2019, yet another time will be announced for new elections.
My conclusion is that the Thai do not like change and that politics is only conducted in Bangkok.
Have experienced coups outside Bangkok and everything is rose scent and moonshine there.
The Thai really don't care as long as they have bread and circuses.
I should know because I have lived here for 30 years…..
TonyM
This regime is not at all on its last legs. The new constitution is designed in such a way that a majority of senators are not elected, but appointed. There is also the possibility of an unelected PM. Thai politics can only be understood if one has read the Chinese saga of the 3 kingdoms.
http://nl.shenyunperformingarts.org/learn/article/read/item/IaHAKlGlERc/de-grote-klassieker-roman-van-de-drie-koninkrijken.html
One should also not forget why the army seized power. This was to sideline the Shinawatra clan and its supporters once and for all. And I'm not even talking about the red shirts or the Phue Thai party. But about the Dhamnmakaya sect, influential figures like Tarid former director of the DSI. All the people like him who hold key positions in the police force. occupy , even minister, . have been tackled 1 by 1 for corruption or land grabbing and sentenced to billions of fines and long prison sentences. Like the former trade minister. You should also see the conviction of Yingluck Shinawatra in this light. The amendment to the law, which means that people can now also be tried and sentenced in absentia, fits into this picture. Because now one can finish the pending corruption cases against Thaksin. And there are a few
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30328653
it is therefore understandable that the greatest danger to the current regime has been very quiet in recent months. Many Phue Thai leaders also see the storm coming, and adopt a very moderate attitude. A part has even been concluded with the highest authority, which I cannot elaborate on for obvious reasons.
At the same time, the regime is conducting a charm offensive against the peasants. This regime is therefore very firmly in the saddle. At most a few names may be dropped, but in essence nothing will change for the next 20 years. Only the Thai tradition that governments are made in Isaan but are overthrown in Bangkok can perhaps, just perhaps, change that.
Personally, I do not believe that Thailand will ever have a democracy based on the Western model, because that would be very un-Thai. For the simple reason that the Thai translate everything to Buddhism. And in fact, that's a good thing. Especially if you look at Europe where Democracy has also been sidelined. Just look at Spain and the EU dictatorship for that.
They were after Thaksin & friends, not because of his corruption (as did his and Yingluck's military and political predecessors), or the deaths under his rule in war on drugs, the events in the south of the country (his predecessors have also blood on their hands, in previous regimes and under Thaksin himself, the military did not keep their hands clean either). He had to step aside because his deep pockets allowed him to pass the other monkeys on the monkey rock. And in that eternal struggle for power and money, the necessary chips are chopped every so often when 1 monkey rises above the other monkeys on the rock. There are also various circles within the military, and there are also tensions in business life between the families that sit high on that rock or tree. And so it goes over and over again.
Do you really want to clean up? Not quite. People like Abbhisit or Suthep, for example, don't exactly seem to be put to the test for what's been done in their name or under their leadership. If the junta really brought everything and everyone with dirty hands before an independent judiciary, I could give them a round of applause. But corruption in one's own ranks should not be talked about too much, then the media will already get a blow out of the pan. So no, I'm not confident given the motivations and track record so far.
And the EU a dictatorship? 555 The EU is really not doing much worse than The Hague. Yes, the larger the club of people (citizens, provinces, member states) the less influence 1 single cog has. But the EU really does have a parliament elected by the citizens, and the other important club in policy making is representatives of the national cabinet. whether it is Dutch or EU level, yes it is not free of blemishes, but many Thai would rather see that than crush the carousel of dictatorships, coups and rebellious citizens as Thailand has shown since 1932. Democracy is a universal model, together in consultation and balancing interests/opinions, there is nothing uniquely Western about that.
When I look at the course of the Thai Bath, the current regime still has a lot of confidence
in the rest of the world…., a not insignificant fact…!!!
carl.
Is the regime on its last legs? Yes and no.
Yes: since the day they took office, the junta has promised that elections would be held again. So from that day on (so since 2014) the regime is on its last legs because this government cannot be elected in elections. After all, they came to power without elections.
No: in order to oust this government before another election (in 2019 now, but that remains to be seen) there must be a government crisis or a counter-coup. The first would be nice and unique in history: a government crisis in a junta. I don't see that happening for the time being because the 'parliament' actually only contains yes-men. Ministers who would normally (ie in democratic countries following the Western model) be dismissed or resign simply remain in Thailand as long as the junta friends support them. What the people think is not really important because they are not looking to retain power after elections or have that power more or less enshrined in the new constitution. And in Thailand, elections are not about political ideas, visions, but about personal popularity. The second possibility, a counter-coup, I think is more possible. When the election date approaches and the political parties of red and yellow come up against each other like ruffs, a new junta, with the knowledge and approval of the old rulers, could take over and thus torpedo the elections for a number of years. This could also happen after the elections if the majority of parliament decides to suspend the current constitution and create a new one.
The latter will not be possible because the army, as a representative in parliament, can always prevent this.
I read a lot of posts on this forum about democracy. Opinions are quite divided. Democracies come in many shapes and sizes. Just look at North Korea, China and Russia, all of which call themselves democracies.
Democracy literally means "people's rule". This means that the people themselves vote on the laws, as in ancient Athens, or the people elect representatives who make the laws, such as the Netherlands. Communist regimes call their political system a people's democracy. In reality, the people have nothing to say. The Netherlands and most Western countries have a parliamentary democracy with representatives of the people. In practice, “the people” also have little to say during a term of government. But is a system in which the people do have the say, as in ancient Athens, a real (popular) democracy? Would that be workable? I would say NO. In my opinion, a good interim solution is a parliamentary democracy with a fully-fledged referendum, so that a parliament cannot undesirably impose its will on the people.
Basically I am against a government that imposes its will by force or not. But a power taker who pushes aside a democratically elected government by military means is always reprehensible. No matter with what intent, no matter how well-intentioned. Practice proves that such a ruler will no longer voluntarily relinquish his power.
Prayut has taken power through a coup d'état. His beautiful words are empty slogans. A leader of a country needs the support of a large majority of the people in order to carry out his pretended plans. I don't think that's possible in Thailand. The people are too divided. This division is mainly caused by the distribution of wealth. The rich often enrich themselves at the expense of the poor part of the population. The Thai problem is that numerically the poorest part forms the majority and the wealthy elite minority does not want to share their power, let alone relinquish it.
In addition, corruption is difficult to combat. If wages are too low and there is no safety net for the unemployed, corruption will be a means for those people to keep their heads above water. This applies to the “ordinary citizen” as well as to civil servants. On the other hand, the people at the top have every opportunity to enrich themselves and it is known that the rich want to become even richer. Corruption can only be fought with a firm hand. This also includes a free press that can expose corruption and abuses. But not much should be expected of a ruler who has come to power through a coup d'état, restricts the free press and throws dissenters into prison. Sooner or later there will be resistance. Then it will become clear whether a path to democracy is being taken or a path to a repressive dictatorship.
Dear Frans Nico,
Ever heard of the Carnation Revolution in Portugal?
https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anjerrevolutie
In theory, the rich west can somewhat force the poorer countries to redistribute the wealth among the people.
In Europe (I don't know in the US, but I suspect so) we have many laws that protect employees (often the less wealthy) (ARBO) and allow them to benefit from prosperity (Minimum wage). The environment must also not be spared (Miliewwet).
Have all companies in low-wage countries that supply to the West receive a quality mark, which means they meet Western standards. No quality mark, then extremely high import duties.
But I'm afraid the rich west won't do that, because then the rich will also quickly become poorer in the west and their trade and conduct will partly dry up.