Rice exports will increase due to weak Thai currency
Thailand's rice exports are expected to rise to 7,5 million tonnes this year from the previously forecast 8,2 million tonnes, according to Ronnarong Phoolpipat, director-general of the Ministry of Foreign Trade. This growth is due to the weakening of the baht against the US dollar, making Thai rice more competitive in the global market.
He told media today that Thailand's rice exports in the first half of this year amounted to 5,08 million tons, with an estimated value of 117 billion baht. This represents an increase of 25,12% year-on-year.
In addition to the weakening of the Thai currency, which now hovers between 35 and 37 baht per US dollar, he attributed the increase in exports to higher demand for Thai rice from two major importers, the Philippines and Indonesia.
Ronnarong stated that the Philippine government has reduced tariffs on rice from 35% to 15%, effective 2028, to ease inflation. He added that the Philippines may import as much as 4,7 million tons of rice this year.
In addition, Indonesia expects to import between 3,6 and 4,3 million tons of rice, depending on domestic production. This offers favorable opportunities for Thai rice exporters.
With enough water for rice cultivation, Thailand's main crop, which is expected to be fully harvested in the last quarter of the year, is likely to exceed last year's yield, Ronnarong said. He added that the higher yield will lower the price but make Thai rice more competitive in the global market.
However, he noted that rice yields in other major rice-exporting countries such as India, Vietnam, Pakistan, Cambodia and Myanmar are also expected to increase this year, meaning competition will be fiercer.
Source: Thai Public Broadcasting Service
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And for us it is also good, a weakening against the dollar is also a weakening (not necessarily, but almost) against the Euro and so we get more Baht for the Euro.
Jack,
There has been no weakening of the Thai baht against the dollar and euro for several months now.
The price is currently at its lowest point since February of this year.
I therefore wonder whether the story is based on old data or on an expectation.
A while ago the EUR/THB briefly touched 40. Until last week the price was well above 39.
However, there has been a significant correction in recent days.
Perhaps to clarify: The higher the EUR/THB value, the weaker the price of the Thai currency.
What the topic starter says is correct.
In the financial world it is only the hard numbers that count.
Expectations have no value. Before you know it, a course takes a completely different direction than the one predicted by the many gurus. Unfortunately, a lot of money is made with all kinds of predictions. If you base your decision on that, you may end up disappointed.
I have recently seen the price going in a completely different direction, apparently expectations do not match reality.
The faster a price can fall, the faster it can rise again.
And what do you call 'expectations'? People are clearly talking about THIS YEAR'S rice exports. It is premature to say now that expectations are not being met. We're barely half way through the year.
If you do a technical analysis on the THB-EUR at the moment, it is clear that we are in a trend where the THB is rising, each peak is higher than the previous one.
From the perspective of EUR-THB, it is of course exactly the other way around, where you have been seeing a decline for some time, and where the euro has currently passed through the bottom of the rising trend since January 2023.
You can call this a correction, but it is starting to look more and more like a change in the trend.
But of course all kinds of events can influence this.
Dear Lute,
Is it the THB that is rising or is it the EUR that is weakening? I'm convinced it's the latter.
Inflation in the eurozone rose unexpectedly in July, and the ECB has decided to put a new interest rate cut on hold. Hence the sudden decline of the euro in the last week.
This 'bad news' is eagerly used by the shorts in the market to quickly make some profits. This obviously amplifies the decline. I also speculate on the financial market. Traded volumes on the Euromarket were abnormally high after the announcement of this news. Once the shorts disappear from the scene and the news has been digested, the price of the euro will return to its normal level (EUR/THB back to 39 - 39.5). This may of course take a little longer because the pressure on inflation may persist due to the flammable situation in the Middle East (rising oil prices).
In summary, I don't think THB is on the rise. The euro is much more sensitive to external influences. We come from a EUR/THB rate of 35.5 at the beginning of last year, this year we even saw 40.0 for a while. Is that the strong THB?
Strengthening and weakening Stefaan is always relative in a currency pair.
I continue to believe that the Thai baht has been strengthening lately.
If you look at EUR-THB and USD-THB, you see the same picture.
The Thai baht is therefore becoming stronger against the most widely used currencies in the world.
https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/EUR-THB-exchange-rate-history.html
Just set the time frame of that graph to 5 years.
Then the trend is more than clear. Above, conclusions are drawn based on a graph of a number of months. I maintain my position that the EUR/THB is still showing an upward trend.
I fully expect the euro to take a hard hit as a result of the malaise with Russia. All in all, our currency is holding up quite strong.
The crystal ball of coincodex gives little positivity for us foreigners in many years for the euro / baht.
https://coincodex.com/forex/eur-thb/forecast/
Buy gold for and from your [savings] cents as Luit van der Linde indicates?
I think you are already way too late with gold, although there are clubs that expect a 25% increase in the next year and a half.
But it could also just as easily implode with the price as…………….
Expect few changes with the rice.
The countries that also export are surfing the same 'wave'.
If it turns out in Thailand's favor, it will not be Thailand's fault.
Now my pants are falling off anyway. A website that provides a prediction for the further development of the EUR/THB. How reliable is this? What nonsense.
And what bothers me most about that website is that you have to create an account for long-term predictions. I thank you for that.
Besides, to what extent did their previous predictions correspond to reality? I would have liked to know that. The internet is full of websites that try to predict the future. And all those crystal balls always have to be paid for.
Read everything dear Werner.
At the very bottom [in English]
DISCLAIMER: Not investment advice
The information provided is for general information purposes only. No information, materials, services or other content on this page constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or any financial, investment or other advice. Please seek independent professional advice in the form of legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision.
I also regularly take it with a bag of sea salt, predictions, expectations and advice on blogs and forums, especially when it comes to money, which usually works like a red rag to a herd of bulls, but there are more of course.[red rags ]
Rice will become cheaper if expectations are correct, great.
75% of the reviews give a negative opinion about coincodex's predictions.
I suppose this needs no explanation.
https://www.trustpilot.com/review/coincodex.com
Actually, you should never believe news from Thailand from the mouth of a government official. These are often wishful thoughts, but the reality is that reality does not lie and that Thailand is currently not in a very good economic position despite the current stronger course.
And it cannot be that this man's hope is based on the populist free money plan that is rolled out during the harvests, resulting in a lower baht? The farmer earns nothing extra and the trader paid in USD a little more as usual.
Despite the high price, I'm going to buy a bunch of gold in the fall to cover myself for what's to come. I don't see this metal becoming less valuable anytime soon with all the BRICS countries wanting to change the world.
Maybe I see obstacles along the way, but in today's world everything is connected. Food speculators became and are filthy rich in any case.