New fuel for protest movements

Anti-government activists, who have long been unhappy about the coalition's course, have added the casino plan to their list of grievances. They previously expressed anger about, among other things, the alleged preferential treatment of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and a controversial maritime memorandum. Previous demonstrations were halted by court rulings, but the protest movement has been revived by the recent government plans on the casino project.

Although the cabinet has temporarily postponed the discussion of the bill, the unrest is not decreasing. Action groups have announced that they will take action every week as long as the bill remains on the table.

Calls for referendum grow

Jatuporn Prompan, former leader of the Red Shirts and prominent critic of the government, warns that the casino plan will further fuel tensions within society. In particular, the controversial requirement that casinos would only be accessible to Thais with savings of 50 million baht has caused much resistance. The requirement was later relaxed to include tax returns for the past three years, but the Council of State has now advised that the original savings requirement be included in the law after all.

According to Jatuporn, this could be the starting signal for large-scale protests. He expects groups to increase the pressure and meet regularly during cabinet meetings. “Anyone with experience in political movements knows that it is all about the right moment. The situation can change quickly,” he says. He points to the fall of the Yingluck cabinet, which followed mass discontent over a controversial amnesty law.

Not only political movements are stirring, academics and social organizations are also making themselves heard.

No political agenda, but resistance

Chittawan Chanagul, a researcher at Kasetsart University’s Faculty of Economics, stressed that legalizing gambling would have major social and economic implications. “This plan was not part of Pheu Thai’s election campaign and was not submitted to the Election Commission for review,” Chittawan said.

She therefore advocates a referendum to involve the population directly in decision-making. “It is the only fair way to assess such a far-reaching project,” she says.

According to her, there is broad social support against the legalization of gambling, even among Pheu Thai supporters. In particular, there is widespread fear that gambling will worsen organized crime and the drug problem.

Chittawan also criticizes the opposition. “They are failing to show up where they should be campaigning. It is their job to challenge this plan,” the researcher said.

Opponents join forces

Thanakorn Khomkrit, secretary general of the Stop Gambling Foundation, emphasizes that the foundation does not get involved in party politics and stays away from protests aimed at overthrowing the government. “We do not engage in politics, but we share the concerns about this casino plan,” he says.

The foundation is fundamentally opposed to the bill, regardless of which government presents it. “Our role is to inform the public and make them aware of the risks of gambling. We want this plan to be completely scrapped.”

According to Thanakorn, the cooperation with protest groups is mainly an issue-based alliance. “We stand together strongly against this plan, but we do not have a broader joint political agenda.”

Online gambling remains a concern

Critics point out that the casino plan has holes. There are fears that online gambling will be indirectly legalized through additional ministerial directives. The savings requirement seems to be intended to limit access to wealthy Thais and foreign visitors, but according to Chittawan this will be difficult to enforce in the long term.

She also warns of the major risks of corruption. “In a country with widespread corruption, this plan offers opportunities for money laundering. Casinos can develop into hubs where criminal networks operate.”

The proposed tax structure also raises questions. For example, the bill specifies a maximum of 5 billion baht in licensing fees, but lacks a minimum amount. This allows the government to keep rates low to attract investors, which could come at the expense of revenue needed to address gambling-related issues.

Risk of erosion of rules

Chittawan points out that countries like Vietnam show how casino regulations can be relaxed. “Casinos there were initially only for foreigners, but since 2017 local players have also been allowed to participate under certain conditions,” says Chittawan. This undermines the argument that Thailand can strictly limit access, she says.

Thanakorn also points to a new provision in the bill that allows external companies to provide services to casinos. “That opens the door for parties that could be involved in money laundering. We see these types of structures elsewhere in the international casino world.”

Concerns have been heightened after it was revealed that Melco Resorts & Entertainment, a well-known casino giant from Macau, has opened an office in Thailand, fueling fears that business and political interests are becoming more closely intertwined than desired.

Political damage beckons

The proposal to legalize casinos in Thailand threatens to become a bone of contention within the coalition and a breeding ground for social unrest. Calls for a referendum are growing louder.

The coming weeks will show whether the government will listen to the wishes of the population or opt for confrontation, both with the street and with its coalition partners.