Drama in the making on the Thai-Burmese border
(Amors photos / Shutterstock.com)
Almost immediately after the military coup in Burma/Myanmar, I warned of a possible new drama on the Thai-Burmese border. And I'm afraid I'll be proven right very soon.
While the eyes of the world and the international media are mainly - and quite understandably - focused on the bloody crushing of the broad anti-army protest movement in major cities such as Yangon, Mandalay or Naypyitaw, near the border with neighboring Thailand, far away from the cameras, an equally harrowing drama in the making, which urgently needs to draw the attention of the international community.
Since the coup d'état on February 1, things have – as I predicted – quickly gone from bad to worse. At least 519 civilians were killed by Burmese security forces and 2.559 people were imprisoned, charged or convicted. An unknown number of Burmese were injured after security forces and the army used machine guns and hand grenades to crack down on the protest movement. The protests and 'silent strikes', however, continue, despite the blind violence and brutal repression. But fear and unrest are increasing, now that the army is even carrying out aerial bombardments over southeastern Myanmar. The Karen live there, an ethnic minority that has been in deep disagreement with those in power since the creation of the modern Burmese state. Between 3.000 and 10.000 of them have fled, according to the Karen National Union (KNU), an armed group fighting for more autonomy. A large part of them did so towards the border with Thailand.
Several reliable sources confirm that the Burmese air force carried out at least three airstrikes over the weekend against Karen militia-held sites and strongpoints in Mutraw District and the village of Deh Bu Noh, not far from the Thai-Burmese border. These attacks were in response to the capture of a Burmese outpost on Saturday in which 8 Burmese soldiers were captured and 10 killed, including a lieutenant colonel who was the deputy commander of the infantry battalion stationed in the region.
(Knot. P. Saengma / Shutterstock.com)
An armed group of Kachin, another ethnic minority, also attacked the army in the north of the country. But these 'incidents' are small compared to what could happen if the ethnic minorities turned outright against the army. There are increasing rumors that the leaders of the civilian resistance movement in Burma in hiding are holding talks with, among others, the Karen, Kachin and the so-called Three Bear Coalition which consists of Rakhine, Kokang and Ta-Ang to put more pressure on the new administrators in Burma through armed actions. A doomsday scenario that can take on apocalyptic dimensions at worst and that no one is waiting for. After all, both sides have countless heavy weapons of war and decades of experience in armed struggle….
If Burma were to move into what I describe as a 'Syrian conflict model' – a bloody civil war that drags on for years with no clear winners – it will undoubtedly have a major impact on neighboring countries and even the entire region. A 'failed state' like Burma, all major powers, such as the United States, China, India, Russia and Japan, can be drawn into a major and increasingly rapidly escalating international catastrophe. In other words, it is high time that there was an international consensus on how to defuse this conflict as quickly as possible. Myanmar's borders are very porous and the ethnic groups have long stopped listening to the state, making the threat that the conflict can be fought across international borders suddenly become very real.
And as a result, people in Bangkok – where political tensions also continue to rise – are looking with suspicion at what is happening in Burma. Thai Prime Minister and former Chief of Staff Prayut Chan-o-cha stated on Monday morning that Thailand was "not fed up"waiting for mass immigration” but immediately announced that the country is “in good traditionto deal with a possible influx of Burmese refugees and to take into account the human rights situation in the neighboring country. Good sources in the Thai Border Guard Forces and the Karen Peace Support Network however, confirmed to the press agency Associated Press that Thai troops were busy on Monday afternoon and also on Tuesday with hundreds of Karen refugees back across the border at Mae Sakoep in Mae Hong Son province. Equally ominous are the reports that the whole region is turning into a 'no go'zone would be declared for the press & media…
Prime Minister Prayut hurriedly contradicted that and reaffirmed on Tuesday that there was no question of a forced return. He stated to the assembled press that those who went back to Burma, this “did of their own free will”…
Undoubtedly to be continued…
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It is deeply sad, of course especially what is going on in Burma, but just as much the reaction of the Thai authorities. Given the warm understanding between the two coup-perpetrating military rulers and the military record, it is no surprise that General Prime Minister Prayuth and his comrades first denied that refugees were refused and later came up with the story that those refugees returned 'voluntarily' gone to where they came from. Hopefully, the Thai army will not fall further into the historic repetition as it did in the 70s: the forced return of (then Cambodian) refugees back across the border through a minefield. Many civilians were killed by mines and gunfire. Respect for democracy, human rights, human lives… historically speaking, the various green lords in the region are not like that. And unfortunately we still see that to a certain extent today. How many human lives will it cost this time? Will the people now get the longest end of the stick? How high will the bill be? It all makes me far from happy. 🙁
Successive Thai governments have always collaborated with violent rulers.
During WWII they collaborated with the Japanese by being so-called 'neutral'. Several dictators have ruled Thailand with great violence. During the Cold War, Thailand was the operating base of the American B52 bombers that 'carpet bombed' the neighboring countries of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.
Now Thailand is extremely submissive to the new world ruler China.
I still remember a photo in which a hundred or so Uyghurs with black hoods were on the plane to be extradited to China where they will be prosecuted just because they are Uyghurs.
The way Thailand dealt with Rohingya boat people gives little hope for the reception of Burmese refugees now.
Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was also good friends with the Burmese generals because he did good business with them.
That's true Nick. But it was mainly the clique of generals in those governments, Pibun, Sarit, Prem and Prayut. Thaksin was a police officer.
The Thai armed forces, and especially their officers, are made up of brave fighters who sacrifice their lives to defend their country against the many foreign threats. They receive a good salary, free housing and servants and of course medals. And the foot soldiers…..
Brave warriors Tino ?
Wonder if they've ever heard a bullet whistling right past their heads.
And where do those many medals come from, the battle of Doi Saket in Chiangmai anno —–.
I think it's more for decoration of the uniform.
No, those old veterans who fought on the beaches of Normandy, those are real medals.
Jan Beute
"Brave warriors" was sarcasm, dear Jan.
But Tino's comment was clearly meant to be ironic, I suppose.
By the way, who or what has threatened Thailand in recent history?
Thailand doesn't like refugees; Rohingya are still being dragged out to sea with a rickety boat and people are being pushed back at the border with Myanmar and that would be voluntary? Doesn't anyone believe that?
A recent link: https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/karen-villages-03302021170654.html
The Gambia's genocide complaint will pale in comparison to what will happen in Myanmar.
I expect that all combat groups will soon take up arms and a civil war will break out that will kill tens of thousands of people. Those armies have money like water because of the amphetamine trade in the border area Thailand-Laos-Myanmar, which trade is forced to go more and more via Thailand and via Laos and Vietnam. I read that the price of meth in Bangkok has dropped to 50 baht…
The border with Thailand is so long, they can't board it up and the border with India is porous; those armies are already fleeing into India and encounter the insurgents (against the Modi regime) who live in northern Myanmar….
Cross-border fighting is the result and that can mean war.
Thailand has always refused to sign the UN Refugee Convention.
An excellent article has already been written about this in Thailandblog:
https://www.thailandblog.nl/stelling-van-de-week/thailand-moet-het-vn-vluchtelingenverdrag-ondertekenen/
Dear Niek, I'm curious how the commenters and readers of the past view this now. Many were clear about it: do not sign a refugee treaty. Is that different now? Or is (in)formal reception sufficient in the few primitive camps at the border? Whether or not at a later time when the situation is serious, according to Prayuth there is no reason for reception yet, but refugees will be received IF the situation gives rise to it later. How many deaths, wounded and oppression is serious enough for the generals clique ?
But yes, who am I? Someone who 'wags the finger' and can 'offend the authorities and make things more difficult for us' . But better meekly keep your mouth shut, look down, look away as long as they don't come for you/me? Those in power like that attitude, but I am still confident that people here and there often still have a heart and a mouth.
Any moment now a call from our own Mark will be made to promote shelter in the region. The Netherlands will then be prepared to send decent tents accompanied by our 'thoughts and prayers'. Malik from the European Parliament will give a speech next week about how the Netherlands plays an exemplary role in regional reception.
Of course don't joke that you want to finance the trip to the low countries. Klaas doesn't really like it when the problems come close to his bed. It was for that reason that he is on sabbatical. Don't worry, he will make his return this decade. 😉
Surely you have not forgotten that Thailand is still in a military stranglehold? We all know what “free will” means in such a case…
The large clique of rulers and the wealthy have been working together for years. Other interests prevail and the people are subservient to them. Secret agendas, where have I seen this more often. These people are doing great on all levels and earning money from each other. So that is not going to change with the current governments in power in many countries, but certainly those that surround Myanmar.
I have a housekeeper from Myanmar Karen state and her stories about her childhood and fleeing violence with her family speaks volumes. These power-hungry people in Myanmar with the help of their partners from other countries are taking up the fight. They are sure they can win this and the many dead they will be a sausage. Sanctions, no matter how well intended, do not have the desired effect, as we have seen for years. China and Russia will have to be banned from the major consultative groups so that a clear vote can take place and troops can be deployed to keep the peace and protect the citizens of Myanmar against these despots. It should also be made clear that an international tribunal will be set up to try the murderers in Myanmar and that their actions will not go unpunished. We have seen that this does not always work with Russia and the attack on the Malaysian plane that killed 300 people. Still, I'm happy we did this. The signal is clear and hangs over the heads of the guilty. So people are going to cover themselves in the Russian way, but still the democratically minded countries will have to join forces and do everything in their power to stop the violence and let the people decide what they think is right. It is now five to twelve and the civil war is imminent in Myanmar so we will have to act quickly. Incidentally, China is also starting to show the real face with the comments that have now arisen on foreign criticism and their domestic policy on minority groups, with the expressions of burning the Nikes shoes and removing the H and M billboards. China's influences in India and Bangladesh are also increasingly indicating what is really going on. It is a wolf in sheep's clothing that is now increasingly dismantled.
Unfortunately, China and Russia will rightly point to the hypocrisy of the West to lecture them, while the foreign policies of the US, UK and their allies have been based on excessive violence, wars, torture, coups and violent regime changes, etc. since WWII in many foreign countries and especially in Latin America, SE Asia and the MO.
Let's not consider the period before World War II, because then the misery that the West has caused in the world can no longer be overseen.
Compared to that, Russia and China are geopolitically very peaceful countries.
Niek, yes really, you are absolutely right with your comment 'Compared to that, Russia and China are geopolitically very peaceful countries.'!
Tibet, Hong Kong, Uyghurs, Inner Mongols, Eastern Ukraine, Crimea, parts of Georgia, threatening Taiwan and finally the Gulag, none of them existed.
Maybe read a book?
Perhaps Niek has some communist sympathies and then you like to close your eyes to the abuses of left-wing totalitarian regimes. Just like the Green Leftists who adored the mass murderer Pol Pot.
Peter, Erik and the others, the whole West incl. China supported that terrible regime of Pol Pot, because it was the enemy of Vietnam, which ultimately defeated Pol Pot. You also remember how the West defeated Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia bombed and poisoned instead of defeating Pol Pot.
I don't like communism, but I also don't like the aggressive imperialism of the US, terrorist state No. 1 in the world, look at this map of all the wars and military interventions of Uncle Sam since WWII.
https://williamblum.org/intervention-map
I think Niek's point is simply that countries like the US and UK are hypocrites as they have a long history of supporting coups, killing the will of a people and killing people who didn't fit in the street of these world powers/ to fit. There have been many casualties at the hands of hypocritical western world powers. That does not alter the fact that other countries, including the former USSR or current Russia, do not have a good track record when it comes to human rights and democracy. Side note: under communism, citizens did/did have direct democratic participation at the lower levels. This is how the workers vote who may be a chief for next year. You can then vote out a selfish (or similar) manager. On a national and international level… well…then many leaderships seem not to operate in the interest of the people, but for a select group of elites. Many countries suddenly have no problem with repression with violence and ignoring human rights as long as it suits their interests…
Russia is a peaceful country, and then you have forgotten the issue of Eastern Ukraine was once again big in the news today.
There, too, tensions are currently rising between Russia and the West.
And what about the person and opposition leader Navalny who is back in prison.
Jan Beute.
Dear Niek, this is the strategy that is always used by the Russians and Chinese. That is why they should also be banned. Point to others and do nothing about their way of treating (mistreatment) others than, for example, Han Chinese. These countries and also Myanmar consist of several population groups that should all have equal rights and obligations. Superiority has no place there. Certainly not based on improper grounds such as their own convenience and income. Those in possession of the guns and force majeure and their misuse are sickening figures and deserve to be dealt with. I am not blind to the abuses that are happening in Western countries and all over the world. The violence of Chinese over many centuries (including among themselves) is clearly on the rise again and that should alarm and worry everyone on this globe. Talking to them is not an option. Wake up before everything is covered under the red flag and freedoms can only be seen in books. See what the Chinese communist regime really represents.
A sad story that makes you think.
Nice job for the UN. Set up large refugee camps at the border led by the armed forces of various countries. Most people just want to go home once things have calmed down. A gigantic tent camp is set up within a week, then the following week work can be done on good sanitary facilities. Any significant military force CAN build such a camp, now the WILL. AND if the UN is present in the region, they can immediately ensure fair elections. Can they immediately control new elections in the entire region?
As long as the Security Council of the UN has a right of veto, the UN is a powerless body, an empty nose.
The Karen want more autonomy, just like the Rohingya.
Why would a country allow that.
Would Thailand allow that, that a certain group wants independence and want to achieve this armed if necessary?
In a country that is truly democratic, matters such as more autonomy and independence (or merger) should be open to discussion. These countries do not allow that kind of thing. Even though those countries themselves were annexed against their will more than a century ago or they themselves engaged in internal colonization. You have quite a bit of butter on your head. “independence, yes for me but not for you”.
No, Eelke, the Karen and Rohingya do not want to be persecuted and accepted as full Burmese citizens.
Eelke, there is a difference between independence and more autonomy. But the main goal of Karen and Rohingya is to be treated as normal citizens.
There are uniforms in Myanmar that do not want democracy but want to turn it into a one-party state: the uniform party. Just like in Thailand, the power - and the money - remains in the hands of the top, the elite and the uniforms.
You probably remember the worldwide support after the big tsunami and after the typhoons that also ravaged Myanmar. They immediately implemented a change in the rate of the national currency to allow the top to earn money from exchanging dollars….. Incidentally, something similar also happens elsewhere in the world: where relief goods are rotting on the quay because (customs) uniforms are first want to see pockets filled…
The deep south of Thailand had a slight form of autonomy that Prime Minister Taksin killed under pressure from the army. You see the result every day now. The south of Thailand is a separate story for which you can also find information in this blog.
I advise you to take in the real story of the Karen and Rohingya and then you might talk differently.
For a good and substantiated image, I would advise viewing the youtube clips of Gravitas Wion, an Indian media channel that shines a lot of light on the darkness.
https://youtu.be/r9o0qdFdCcU